Publications

Iran Update, June 28, 2025

June 28, 2025 - ISW Press

US and Israeli airstrikes on the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) between June 12 and 24 reportedly destroyed components of Iran’s nuclear program that would be necessary for weaponization. The strikes destroyed the Uranium Metal Conversion Plant at the ENTC, which Iran could have used to transform uranium gas into dense metal in a process called metallization. This process is one of the last steps required to form the explosive core of an atomic bomb.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28, 2025

June 28, 2025 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces conducted a series of strikes against Russian military infrastructure and defense industrial base (DIB) facilities from June 26 to 28. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reported on June 28 that the SBU conducted a drone strike that destroyed a Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system and three combat helicopters — Mi-8, Mi-26, and Mi-28 — at the Kirovske Air Base in occupied Crimea on the night of June 27 and 28.

Iran Update, June 27, 2025

June 27, 2025 - ISW Press

US and Israeli strikes severely set back Iran’s enrichment capabilities, but Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile poses a long-term threat.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27, 2025

June 27, 2025 - ISW Press

The Kremlin continues to downplay the social and economic costs of Russia's war in Ukraine and inflated military spending.

Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update June 27, 2025

June 27, 2025 - ISW Press

Russia may have recently tested a new Iranian-made Shahed (Geran) drone with new precision capabilities, while likely simultaneously fielding new Russian-made radio-controlled Shahed drones. Ukrainian forces discovered Shahed drone debris on June 18 that had an advanced camera, a computing platform with artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) capabilities, and a radio operation system that allows the drone operator to remotely operate the Shahed drone from Russia.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, June 27, 2025

June 27, 2025 - ISW Press

People’s Republic of China (PRC) support for Iran will likely be confined to diplomatic solidarity as it aims to portray itself as an advocate of peace and stability.

Iran Update, June 26, 2025

June 26, 2025 - ISW Press

The United States and Iran will reportedly resume nuclear negotiations in the near future. Neither side has changed its position on key issues, including Iranian uranium enrichment and Iran’s missile program, however.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26, 2025

June 26, 2025 - ISW Press

South Korean intelligence suggests that North Korea may deploy North Korean troops to Ukrainian territory, which would represent a significant battlefield inflection.

Tigray Tensions; IS Sahel Offensive: Africa File, June 26, 2025

June 26, 2025 - ISW Press

The growing divide between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian federal government threatens to kill the Pretoria peace agreement and return violence to Tigray. The schism has likely prompted the TPLF to recalibrate its ties with Eritrea, which has exacerbated tensions between the TPLF and Ethiopia and Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Adversary Entente Task Force Update, June 26, 2025

June 26, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian, the People's Republic of China (PRC), and North Korean officials condemned the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities for violating Iran’s sovereignty, exacerbating tensions, and targeting nuclear facilities, and accused the United States of being untrustworthy. None of these countries are likely to provide Iran with significant military aid to help ensure the regime’s survival or operational success against Israel, despite rhetorical support. Russia may provide Iran with regime stability assets or a small number of Shahed drones, but both of these contingencies are low probability in the near to medium-term.

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