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ISIS has seized the border town of Abu Kamal, following clashes with JN and other rebel groups. Iraqi Sunni tribes are likely in control of the Waleed border crossing since at least June 25.
ISIS targeted the Samarra Askari Shrine in an effort to divert ISF resources from Tikrit or Baghdad. The mobilization of the Sadrist Brigades to Samarra and the increase in murders in Baghdad are indications of escalated Shi’a militia activity. Tribes in Haditha may be negotiating the peaceful occupation of the city by ISIS and other armed groups. Upon establishing control of Haditha, ISIS will likely attempt to seize control of Ramadi and declare total control over Anbar province. ISIS is testing the volunteer force defending the city.
Yusfiyah in the southern Baghdad belt and Mashahda in the northern Baghdad belt have witnessed clashes in the last two days. They both represent possible ISIS infiltration points into Baghdad.
ISIS may be launching a renewed military offensive to take control of all urban centers in Anbar Province, beginning with Haditha and moving toward Ramadi. The Haditha Dam is a critical element of Iraq’s infrastructure, which ISIS and other anti-government groups may use to obstruct ISF mobility in Anbar, much like the Fallujah Dam in April 2014.
ISIS has declared a Caliphate, indicating that all Muslims should now submit to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the Caliph. Meanwhile, the ISF counter-offensive against ISIS in Tikrit continues, despite conflicting reports that either the ISF or ISIS now control the city.
The ISF have launched two separate oensives against ISIS in Tikrit and Mosul.
The ISF launched an operation to retake Tikrit. More details included in the June 28 Iraq Situation Report.
The Iraqi government is preparing defenses for the Battle of Baghdad as Ramadan approaches. The government’s plan will also likely include the deployment of Iraqi Shi’a militias. ISIS’s gains in Ramadi indicate the increasing threat to the city. ISIS aims to take Ramadi as part of its interim, operational objectives.
There are indications that ISIS is about to launch into a new offensive in Iraq. ISIS published photos of a military parade through the streets of Mosul on June 24, 2014 showcasing US military equipment, including armored vehicles and towed artillery systems.
The Iraqi police are reportedly back on duty in al-Alam after anti-ISIS Iraqi Sunni tribes cleared ISIS from the area on June 26.