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The growing divide between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian federal government threatens to kill the Pretoria peace agreement and return violence to Tigray. The schism has likely prompted the TPLF to recalibrate its ties with Eritrea, which has exacerbated tensions between the TPLF and Ethiopia and Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Russian, the People's Republic of China (PRC), and North Korean officials condemned the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities for violating Iran’s sovereignty, exacerbating tensions, and targeting nuclear facilities, and accused the United States of being untrustworthy. None of these countries are likely to provide Iran with significant military aid to help ensure the regime’s survival or operational success against Israel, despite rhetorical support. Russia may provide Iran with regime stability assets or a small number of Shahed drones, but both of these contingencies are low probability in the near to medium-term.
Russia will effectively ban Ukrainian-language education in schools in occupied Ukraine starting on September 1, setting multigenerational conditions that will allow the Kremlin to claim that occupied Ukraine is part of Russia on a linguistic basis.
US President Donald Trump stated that Russia may have territorial ambitions beyond Ukraine — consistent with ISW's long-held assessments that Russia is preparing for a future conflict with NATO and setting conditions to justify future aggression against non-NATO former Soviet Union states.
Preliminary intelligence assessments suggest the US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities caused serious damage to the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP). The New York Times published a June 25 report on a leaked, low-confidence US intelligence assessment of the recent US strikes on the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.
Israel conducted a two-week air campaign with the objective of degrading, destroying and removing the threat of Iran’s nuclear program.
NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte assessed that Russia is the largest existential threat to NATO members today and that Russia is preparing for a protracted war with NATO.
The ceasefire between Iran and Israel appears to be holding despite both Israeli and Iranian claims of violations. Israel has responded to perceived Iranian violations of the ceasefire but has not resumed its campaign at this time.
Former Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) President Joseph Kabila has reentered Congolese politics amid the eastern DRC crisis after a multiyear hiatus. Kabila remained outside of the DRC for more than a year and kept a low profile until he began remobilizing his political networks to “organize his return to the forefront” in late 2024.
US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, beginning the evening of June 23. A senior Iranian official confirmed to Reuters that the ceasefire would occur following Qatari mediation.