Publications

The Russia-Iran Coalition Deepens

January 28, 2025 - ISW Press

Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally shifted and intensified the Russo-Iranian relationship. Tehran has leveraged Moscow’s growing material and financial requirements to sustain its war effort to support Tehran’s own domestic and foreign policy objectives. The core of the Russo-Iranian relationship is a mutually binding interest in challenging and eventually overturning the US-led world order. This shared ideological core allowed the Russo-Iranian relationship to weather and survive tensions and challenges that have arisen since 2022, and the United States should not expect this ideological core to weaken in the years ahead.

Iran Update, January 27, 2025

January 27, 2025 - ISW Press

Gazan civilians began to return to the northern Gaza Strip on January 27 after Hamas fulfilled outstanding obligations under the ceasefire agreement. Hamas agreed to release a female civilian hostage held by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) after the IDF prevented Palestinians from returning to the northern Gaza Strip on January 25 and 26.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 27, 2025

January 27, 2025 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces struck Russian long-range drone storage facilities in Oryol Oblast again on January 26. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on January 26 that the Ukrainian forces struck drone and thermobaric warhead storage warehouses, causing secondary detonations. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the strike destroyed over 200 Shahed drones.

Iran Update, January 26, 2025

January 26, 2025 - ISW Press

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) agreed to release a female civilian hostage after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) prevented Palestinians from returning to the northern Gaza Strip on January 25 and 26. PIJ confirmed that hostage, Arbel Yehud, is “alive and in good health” and stated it will release Yehud after reaching an agreement with the mediators. Israel accused Hamas of violating the ceasefire agreement on January 25 by releasing female soldiers before female civilians. In response, the IDF maintained its position in the Netzarim Corridor along al Rashid Road—the coastal road that connects the northern and southern Gaza Strip—preventing Gazans from returning to the northern Gaza Strip. The IDF reiterated on January 26 that it will only fulfill its requirement to allow Palestinians to move to the northern part of the strip once PIJ releases Yehud. The Palestinian Resistance Committee (PRC) and PIJ jointly took Yehud hostage on October 7, 2023.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 26, 2025

January 26, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian forces recently made further advances within Velyka Novosilka amid official Russian claims that Russian forces seized the entire settlement on January 26. Geolocated footage published on January 26 indicates that Russian forces advanced northward along Tsentralana Street in northern Velyka Novosilka. Some Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed on January 26 that Russian forces completely seized Velyka Novosilka, whereas other Russian sources claimed that Russian forces had seized most of the settlement. Some Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are still clearing Ukrainian forces from the settlement, including the northern part, and that Ukrainian forces are still counterattacking in the area. ISW has observed geolocated evidence to assess that Russian forces occupy 89 percent of the settlement, however.

Iran Update, January 25, 2025

January 25, 2025 - ISW Press

Israel announced on January 25 that it will prevent Palestinians from returning to the northern Gaza Strip because Hamas violated the ceasefire agreement.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 25, 2025

January 25, 2025 - ISW Press

Ukraine and Moldova continue to offer solutions to Transnistria's energy crisis as Moldovan President Maia Sandu met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on January 25.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 24, 2025

January 24, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin is once again attempting to obfuscate his unwillingness to participate in good-faith negotiations to end the war by blaming Ukraine for defending itself against Russia's invasion and illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory.

Africa File, January 24, 2025: Russia Continues Pivot to Libya and Mali; SAF Advances in Khartoum; M23 Marches on Goma; IS Somalia Down but Not Out; AES Joint Force

January 24, 2025 - ISW Press

Russia has continued to strengthen and expand its military presence in Libya and Mali as it withdraws assets from Syria. The Kremlin’s equipment buildup in Mali is likely unrelated to the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and instead part of the Kremlin’s plans to continue to consolidate control of the Russian military presence in Mali under the Ministry of Defense–controlled Africa Corps.

Iran Update, January 24, 2025

January 24, 2025 - ISW Press

Israel stated that the list of four female soldier hostages whom Hamas will release on January 25 would violate the ceasefire agreement.

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