ISW's Nataliya Bugayova and Kateryna Stepanenko examine how Russia uses cognitive warfare against the United States.

The Sino-Russian relationship is closer and more interconnected in 2025 than it has ever been.


Russia dedicated staggering amounts of manpower and equipment to several major offensive efforts in Ukraine in 2024, intending to degrade Ukrainian defenses and seize the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

The United States can use the enormous challenges Russia will face in 2025 as leverage to secure critical concessions in ongoing negotiations to end the war by continuing and even expanding military support to Ukraine.

Some peace deals lead to peace, others to more war. The Minsk II deal aimed to end Russia’s limited invasion of Ukraine in 2015 but instead laid the groundwork for the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022.

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Israel is reportedly drafting a mechanism to prevent Iran from being able to rebuild its nuclear program following the conclusion of the Israel–Iran War, according to Israeli media. The mechanism is reportedly similar to the US-approved Israeli monitoring mechanism for the ceasefire in Lebanon that allows Israel to conduct preemptive operations against Hezbollah if Hezbollah violates the November 2024 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected US President Donald Trump's call for a quick peace in Ukraine during a phone call with Trump on July 3. Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov claimed on July 3 that Trump once again raised the issue of a quick end to Russia's war in Ukraine and that Putin claimed that Russia continues its efforts for a negotiated end to the war.

JNIM Attacks Across Mali; Biya Faces Challengers in Cameroon: Africa File, July 3, 2025

Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen launched a series of simultaneous attacks across Mali. The operation was a tactical defeat but could have strategic benefits for the group by contradicting the Malian junta’s narrative that the security situation is improving, especially in economically and politically sensitive areas, such as western Mali.