Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine over three years ago with the intent, among other things, of stealing its children.


Russia dedicated staggering amounts of manpower and equipment to several major offensive efforts in Ukraine in 2024, intending to degrade Ukrainian defenses and seize the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

The United States can use the enormous challenges Russia will face in 2025 as leverage to secure critical concessions in ongoing negotiations to end the war by continuing and even expanding military support to Ukraine.

In late 2022 and early 2023, Putin sought to suppress independent veteran groups, fearing they could threaten his regime after returning from Ukraine.

Some peace deals lead to peace, others to more war. The Minsk II deal aimed to end Russia’s limited invasion of Ukraine in 2015 but instead laid the groundwork for the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022.

Latest from ISW

Iran Update, April 25, 2025

Iran and the United States will hold separate technical and high-level talks in Muscat, Oman, on April 26. Iranian media reported on April 25 that Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi and Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi will lead Iran's technical team.

Russian Occupation Update, April 24, 2025

Russia is extracting economic benefits from occupied Ukraine by exploiting Ukrainian infrastructure and logistics networks. The Russian Federal Agency for Railway Transport (Roszheldor) announced on April 21 that the first container train carrying unspecified cargo travelled along the Russian “Novorossiya Railways” network through occupied Ukraine and arrived in occupied Sevastopol.

Africa File, April 24, 2025: JNIM’s Growing Pressure on Benin; Turkey to Somalia; Salafi-Jihadi Cells Continue to Grow Across Nigeria

Al Qaeda’s affiliate in the Sahel carried out its deadliest-ever attack in Benin as it continues to increase the lethality of its operations in Benin throughout 2025. The latest attacks are significantly more lethal despite no increase in frequency.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 23, 2025

The United States reportedly recently presented Ukraine with a seven-point proposal to end the war in Ukraine in which the United States would recognize Crimea as part of Russia and allow Russian forces to continue to occupy significant parts of southern and eastern Ukraine. Available reporting about the contents of the US proposal suggests that it marks a sudden and substantial change in the Trump administration's strategy for ending the war in Ukraine.