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Security in Afghanistan has been deteriorating since U.S. force levels dropped from a high of 100,000 in 2011 to the current force size of 9,800 they reached in June 2014. Lt. Gen. John W. “Mick” Nicholson, the incoming commander of Operation Resolute Support and U.S. Forces in Afghanistan, agreed with the remark that “the security situation in Afghanistan has been deteriorating rather than improving” in a Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) hearing on January 28.
Key Takeaway: ISIS is executing a sophisticated, multi-front campaign against Libya’s oil facilities, demonstrating the organization’s growing capability abroad. President Obama reportedly ruled out significant military intervention against the group as of February 18. The administration opted to continue intermittent strikes against ISIS leaders in Libya instead, such as the strike on an ISIS leader in western Libya on February 19.
ISIS’s affiliates in Libya and Pakistan gained new supporters and expanded attack zones in December 2015. ISIS’s largely dormant affiliates in Algeria and Russia’s North Caucasus region also conducted rare attacks, potentially signaling a renewal of ISIS activity in those areas. Each of these affiliate campaigns give ISIS resiliency outside of Iraq and Syria.
This newly-updated ISIS Sanctuary Map includes changes reflecting that Sinjar was retaken by anti-ISIS Kurdish forces and also highlights new confidence in the assessment that Liwa Shuhada al-Yarmouk - a rebel faction operating in Southern Syria - constitutes an unofficial ISIS affiliate in the region.
ISIS achieved significant successes in its global strategy to expand its caliphate in the Near Abroad and defeat the West in November 2015. ISIS will likely use its affiliates to launch additional attacks on the West. Destroying the threat posed by ISIS will become more difficult as the organization gains strategic resiliency through its regional affiliate and global radicalization campaigns.
