Publications

Africa File, July 18, 2024: Sudan Spillover Threatens Ethiopia

July 18, 2024 - ISW Press

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met with Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) leader Abdel Fattah al Burhan in Sudan in early July as Sudan’s civil war has moved closer to Ethiopia’s border, which risks destabilizing already turbulent areas of Ethiopia. The timing of the visit highlights Ethiopia’s concern that the Rapid Support Forces’ ongoing offensive against the SAF near Sudan’s border with Ethiopia could stoke ethnic tensions in Ethiopia’s Amhara and Tigray regions and benefit ethno-nationalist militants that are hostile to the Ethiopian government. Ethiopia is also well-connected to the other stakeholders in Sudan’s civil war and is trying to advance multilateral, African-led peace initiatives to stabilize the situation.

Iran Update, July 17, 2024

July 17, 2024 - ISW Press

Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appear to have resumed their attack campaign targeting US forces in Iraq.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 17, 2024

July 17, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian state news outlets editorialized comments by Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev and claimed that he said that the Ukrainian state will no longer exist by 2034, likely to support the Kremlin's efforts to prepare the Russian public for a long war in Ukraine while promising that Russia will complete its objective to destroy Ukrainian statehood within a decade.

Iran Update, July 16, 2024

July 16, 2024 - ISW Press

Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is articulating a foreign policy that is a continuation of the policies of his hardline predecessor even as Pezeshkian attempts to present himself to the West as a "reformist.” Pezeshkian penned an op-ed entitled "My Message to the World” in English-language, Foreign Ministry-affiliated outlet the Tehran Times on July 12. Pezeshkian framed himself as a reformist and reiterated that he ran his presidential campaign “on a platform of reform.” Pezeshkian contradicted his initial statement by reaffirming his commitment to many of the policies of his hardline predecessor, most notably signaling support for continuing former President Ebrahim Raisi’s “neighborhood” policy.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 2024

July 16, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian drone strikes deep within Russia continue to pressure Russia's air defense umbrella and force the Russian military command to prioritize allocating limited air defense assets to cover what it deems to be high-value targets. Satellite imagery collected on May 6 indicates that Russian forces have concentrated at least seven Pantsir-1 medium-range air defense systems around Russian President Vladimir Putin's residence in Valdai, Leningrad Oblast. Ruslan Pukhov, the head of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies and a member of a Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) civilian advisory board, stated on July 16 that such "focal" air defense coverage (static coverage of a singular target) is meaningless at scale because it allows Ukrainian drones to bypass Russian air defense coverage and strike from uncovered directions.

Iran Update, July 15, 2024

July 15, 2024 - ISW Press

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has not yet confirmed whether it killed Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif. The IDF conducted an airstrike in the al Mawasi humanitarian zone on July 13 targeting Deif and Hamas Khan Younis Brigade Commander Rafe Salamah. The IDF confirmed on July 14 that the strike killed Salamah. Hamas officials maintain that Deif is alive but have not provided evidence to back their assertion.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15, 2024

July 15, 2024 - ISW Press

A recent Ukrainian poll indicates that Ukrainians widely reject Russia's demands for total Ukrainian capitulation, emphasizing that the Kremlin's conditions for the end of the war are entirely unreasonable and widely unpopular within Ukraine. The poll found that 83 percent of respondents rejected Putin's statement that Ukraine must withdraw from all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts — including territory in these oblasts currently under Ukrainian control. The poll also reported that 58 percent of respondents stated that Ukraine should not agree to enshrine a neutral, non-aligned, and non-nuclear status in its constitution.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 2024

July 14, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian officials and milbloggers reiterated complaints about poor security around critical infrastructure in rear areas of Russia in response to a July 13 Ukrainian drone strike against an oil depot near Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast. The Russian military command may have committed under-equipped units initially intended to act as an operational reserve to combat operations, possibly due to constraints on the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) or efforts to reinforce ongoing Russian grinding assaults in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Vovchansk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Avdiivka.

Iran Update, July 14, 2024

July 14, 2024 - ISW Press

The IDF confirmed that it killed the commander of Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade in an airstrike targeting senior Hamas officials in the southern Gaza Strip. The IDF said that it is still assessing whether the airstrike killed Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif.

Iran Update, July 13, 2024

July 13, 2024 - ISW Press

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted an airstrike in the al Mawasi humanitarian zone targeting Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif, on July 13. The strike also targeted Hamas Khan Younis Brigade Commander Rafe Salamah. Israel is still assessing whether the strike killed Deif or Salamah. Israeli officials confirmed that they conducted the strike based on specific intelligence collected over the prior 24 hours. The IDF Air Force dropped eight 2,000-pound precision munitions targeting a building in which Deif and Salamah were assessed to be.

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