ISW's Nataliya Bugayova and Kateryna Stepanenko examine how Russia uses cognitive warfare against the United States.

The Sino-Russian relationship is closer and more interconnected in 2025 than it has ever been.


Russia dedicated staggering amounts of manpower and equipment to several major offensive efforts in Ukraine in 2024, intending to degrade Ukrainian defenses and seize the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

The United States can use the enormous challenges Russia will face in 2025 as leverage to secure critical concessions in ongoing negotiations to end the war by continuing and even expanding military support to Ukraine.

Some peace deals lead to peace, others to more war. The Minsk II deal aimed to end Russia’s limited invasion of Ukraine in 2015 but instead laid the groundwork for the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022.

Latest from ISW

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 19, 2025

Russian forces conducted a large series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine overnight on July 18 to 19. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 12 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Voronezh, Kursk, and Rostov oblasts and occupied Crimea; eight Iskander-K cruise missiles from Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; and 15 Kh-101 cruise missiles from the airspace over Saratov Oblast.

Iran Update, July 18, 2025

Israel reversed its previous demand that Syrian transitional government forces refrain from intervening in Suwayda Province, southern Syria. An unspecified Israeli official reported on July 18 that Israel will “allow” a limited number of Syrian transitional government forces to enter Suwayda for the next 48 hours to restore stability

Iran Update, July 17, 2025

A US media outlet reported on July 17 that US strikes in Iran on June 21 caused significant damage to only one of the three Iranian nuclear facilities that the United States struck.[1] CTP-ISW has previously assessed that the strikes caused significant damage to all three facilities and will likely set back Iran's nuclear program.

Russian Info Ops; Attritional Battles in Sudan: Africa File, July 17, 2025

The Kremlin will likely take advantage of recent US cuts to media funding in Africa as Russia continues to expand its media presence on the continent. Russia’s media ecosystem in Africa supports Russia’s strategic effort to supplant the United States and its allies in Africa through anti-Western and pro-Kremlin information operations to strengthen Russian soft power.