Russia Security Update: December 9-15, 2015

Russia’s intervention in Syria has forced the West to reengage Moscow in order to resolve the threat more immediately posed by ISIS even as President Vladimir Putin continues to bend international norms in his favor. Secretary of State John Kerry signaled the U.S.’s willingness to not only reengage with the Kremlin but also to make strategic concessions after his meeting with Putin in Moscow, where he signaled that Washington would accept succession to Assad rather than demand full replacement of the regime. Russia’s confrontation with NATO meanwhile continued to escalate as tensions rose between Moscow and Ankara. Russian warships reportedly diverted two Turkish commercial vessels alleged to be on course for collision, including firing warning shots towards a fishing boat near the Turkish Straits. Russia threatened to “immediately” destroy any target posing a threat to its military contingent in Syria and promised “disastrous consequences” for future “reckless actions” by Turkey. Russia seeks to reassert its freedom of action in and around Syria by accelerating hostilities with Turkey below the threshold of violent confrontation. Russia’s conflict with Turkey threatens to spill over into the South Caucasus, a historical sphere of competition, where a frozen conflict escalated between the military allies of the two powers, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia’s competition with NATO escalated in the Balkans, where several thousand pro-Serbian and pro-Russian demonstrators protested the anticipated accession of Montenegro into the transatlantic alliance. The Kremlin’s pledge to take “retaliatory actions” in response to NATO’s December 2 accession invitation to Montenegro raised the prospect of further Russian destabilization in Eastern Europe even if it did not play a direct role in facilitating the protests.  Russia continues to posture for long-term competition with NATO with its declared prioritization of its nuclear forces and force projection in the Arctic. Russia’s aggression towards NATO and aspiring alliance members such as Ukraine and Georgia has not restricted its ability to pursue renewed great power status.