Russia Security Update: January 5-12, 2016

Russia continues to pursue expanded influence through military and economic partnerships as its own economy suffers under collapsing oil prices. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin revealed that Russia is conducting negotiations with Serbia to provide advanced defensive weaponry during a visit to Belgrade. Russian state media reported that Serbia had requested the Russian S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile system, a defense upgrade Rogozin claimed was justified by new threats facing its Balkan ally from NATO member Croatia. Russia may also be bolstering its military partnership with Serbia as part of its promised retaliation to the planned accession of Serbia’s neighbor Montenegro into NATO.  Russia is also reportedly developing a direct military partnership with Hezbollah forces in Syria as part of its efforts to establish a more resilient foothold in the Middle East at the expense of the U.S. and its allies.  Meanwhile, several countries strategically opposed to a more aggressive Russia signaled the possibility of improved relations. Saudi Arabia called for improved economic ties with Russia despite supporting opposing sides of the Syrian Civil War.  Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone conversation with Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi reportedly to gain Rome’s support for a gas pipeline project between Russia and Germany. An Italian energy company is now reportedly positioned to lead construction of the pipeline just weeks after Renzi criticized German support for the project as a departure from EU sanctions on Russia. Japan called for top-level talks with Russia over a possible World War II peace settlement despite continued Russian efforts to militarize the disputed Southern Kuril Islands. The steep collapse in oil prices has the potential to either curb or accelerate Russia’s efforts to assert itself as a great power as the Kremlin seeks to distract its domestic audience from economic hardship.