This paper primarily aims to offer a new framework for Ukrainian forces and their Western backers to break the current positional warfare and restore maneuver to the battlefield.

The Kremlin will likely seek to influence the October 2024 Georgian parliamentary elections to help secure a Georgian Dream Party victory in order to derail Georgia's Euro-Atlantic Integration efforts.

Moldova's European integration may progress in the October 2024 presidential election and referendum, but it will likely remain a battleground state into the 2030s as EU membership talks continue.

Hamas can indeed be militarily defeated and even militarily destroyed, but the IDF will need a defined political end state in order to set the conditions necessary to destroy the group as a whole.

Russia has vulnerabilities that the West has simply not been exploiting. US incrementalism has helped the Kremlin offset and mask its weaknesses.

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Russia or the West: The Stakes in Georgia’s Election

The Kremlin will likely seek to influence the October 2024 Georgian parliamentary elections to help secure a Georgian Dream Party victory in order to derail Georgia's Euro-Atlantic Integration efforts. The Kremlin likely hopes to seize on Georgian Dream's increasing pro-Russia position to facilitate long-term hybrid efforts to assert control over Georgia and the South Caucasus and diminish Western influence in the region.

Iran Update, October 19, 2024

Hezbollah likely conducted a drone attack targeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence in Caesarea, Israel, on October 19. Three drones crossed into Israeli territory from Lebanon on October 19. The IDF said that one of the drones "hit a building“ in Caesarea with no casualties. Israeli residents reported hearing a large explosion following the drone’s impact. Neither Netanyahu nor his wife were at the residence at the time of the impact, according to the Prime Minister’s Office. Leaked images of the residence show damage to the side of a building. Netanyahu warned in a statement that the Iranian-backed groups that tried to ”assassinate” him made a ”grave mistake.”

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19, 2024

Ukrainian drones reportedly struck the "Kremniy El" microelectronic plant in Bryansk City on the night of October 18 to 19. Russian opposition outlet Astra reported on October 19 that Ukrainian drones struck the plant and noted that "Kremniy El" is one of Russia's largest microelectronic manufacturers and that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is one of the company's main customers.