Our History
ISW in 2007
Iraq
Dr. Kimberly Kagan founded ISW in 2007 without funding or employees but with a powerful idea – that a small, non-government institution could improve the national security debate by educating journalists, policymakers, and civic leaders, and by educating emerging talent to create future national security leaders.
Dr. Kagan saw the need for real-time, independent, and open-source analyses of ongoing military operations to equip senior leaders to make informed decisions and aid the media in covering complex, fast-moving conflicts. Dr. Kagan began publishing detailed analysis of the US and insurgent campaigns in Iraq in March 2007 as US forces undertook a daring new counterinsurgency strategy to reverse the grim security situation on the ground in Iraq.
David Petraeus, then the Commanding General in Iraq, was an early consumer of ISW’s Iraq Reports. He invited Kim to Baghdad to advise him along with General (Ret.) Keane, now the Chairman of ISW’s Board, who played a critical role in Washington in shaping the new counter-insurgency strategy that General Petraeus would implement. Kim and other ISW staff, including Marisa Cochrane Sullivan, continued to advise successive commanders in Iraq.
ISW maintained its Iraq program after US forces withdrew in 2011 and continued to produce granular analysis of military and political conditions in the post-US period, including mapping al Qaeda in Iraq remnants. This coverage would position ISW among the very first to warn of the rise of ISIS as the successor to al Qaeda in Iraq from 2012-2013.
Report: From ‘New Way Forward’ to New Commander (March 1, 2007)
Report: Special Groups Regenerate (September 2, 2008)
ISW Documentary: The Surge: The Whole Story (December 1, 2009)
Clockwise, top left: ISW’s Dr. Kimberly Kagan, LTG James Dubik (ret.), Marisa Cochrane Sullivan, and Dr. Frederick Kagan pose with Iraqi troops; Gen. David Petraeus (ret.) and Dr. Kimberly Kagan pose in front of US Capitol; Dr. Kimberly Kagan reviews details of ISW’s documentary The Surge: The Whole Story in team meeting; Dr. Kimberly Kagan, Gen. Petraeus (ret.), and Gen. Jack Keane (ret.) chat.
ISW in 2009
Afghanistan
ISW launched its Afghanistan program in 2009 to assist civilian and military leaders as the United States and its allies faced a widening insurgency. ISW published a rigorous body of work on the Taliban’s campaigns, the Haqqani network, and political power and corruption.
Dr. Kagan was invited to serve as an advisor to a center at US Central Command and later participated in US General Stanley McChrystal’s Strategic Review in the summer of 2009 that recommended surging forces in Afghanistan. When General Petraeus took command of NATO forces in Afghanistan in 2010, Kim Kagan and ISW Afghanistan Analysts Jeff Dressler and Carl Forsberg went to Afghanistan to participate in his campaign review. ISW analysts continued to circulate into Afghanistan, shaping the surge, the subsequent drawdown, and designations of various terrorist groups.
Kim remained in Afghanistan for 15 months as a volunteer, advising General Petraeus and his successor, General John Allen. Dr. Kagan was awarded the Department of Defense Civilian Service Award in 2011 for her contributions to the war effort.
Kim brought back from Afghanistan a renewed commitment to leveraging the variety of open-source intelligence that emerging technological changes were empowering, including social media and big data. ISW adapted its methodology and product lines as these changes became evident in the Arab Spring in 2011 to produce new insights and visualizations to aid US decisionmakers.
Report: Securing Helmand: Understanding and Responding to the Enemy (September 28, 2009)
Report: Politics and Power in Kandahar (April 21, 2010)
Report: Defining Success in Afghanistan (January 7, 2011)
Report: The Haqqani Network: A Strategic Threat (March 19, 2012)
Clockwise, top left: ISW’s Carl Forsberg testifies on C-SPAN; ISW’s LTG James Dubik (ret.) and Marissa Cochrane Sullivan brief leaders; ISW special report Securing Helmand: Understanding and Responding to the Enemy; ISW Analyst Jeff Dressler presents on Afghanistan.
isw in 2011
The Arab Spring and Syria
ISW expanded its Middle East programs during the Arab Spring, recognizing that the attempted revolutions across the Arab World increased the strategic risks of protracted conflict and would shift balances of power across the Middle East in ways that challenged the United States, its allies, and its partners in the region. ISW launched its Syria program in 2011 and warned of the potential for a protracted civil war involving external actors such as Iran. ISW also covered the Libyan revolution and expanded its coverage of Iraq after the 2011 US withdrawal, as the Shi’a government of Nouri al-Maliki fueled Sunni protests and ultimately a resurgent al Qaeda in Iraq.
The fast-paced developments in the Middle East posed a new analytic challenge due to the lack of detailed US government reporting produced as a result of US troop presence in Iraq before 2011 and in Afghanistan. ISW pioneered new methodologies by leveraging the intelligence potential of burgeoning open-source data from social media and other online platforms to analyze the unfolding Syrian Civil War. ISW analyst Joe Holliday published a breakout paper in 2012 that identified and assessed the landscape of the Syrian armed opposition from open-source intelligence, especially YouTube videos uploaded by rebel commanders.
Joe’s paper demonstrated the potential of open-source intelligence at a time when US senior officials stated that the United States could not support the Syrian opposition because intelligence officials did not know who they were. ISW began educating the United States and its allies about the value of unclassified intelligence and became the go-to source for policymakers to understand the Syrian Civil War.
ISW Warns Syria Likely to Enter Civil War (December 14, 2011)
ISW’s Revolutionary Assessment of Syria’s Armed Opposition (March 8, 2012)
Iranian Influence in the Levant, Egypt, Iraq, and Afghanistan (May 23, 2012)
Syria’s Maturing Insurgency (June 21, 2012)
Iranian Strategy in Syria (May 2, 2013)
The Syrian Army: Doctrinal Order of Battle (February 15, 2013)
Syria Update: The Fall of al-Qusayr (June 6, 2013)
Clockwise, top left: ISW’s Joseph Holliday appears on Al Jazeera segment; New York Times front-page article citing ISW’s research on Haqqani network; ISW’s Joseph Holliday presents on Syria to senior officials.
ISW in 2013
Forecasting the threat
ISW Research Director Jessica Lewis McFate and her team forecasted the rise of ISIS and its intent to collapse the Iraqi Security Forces and capture the city of Mosul in late 2013, more than eight months before these events occurred. ISW’s assessments and warnings starkly differed from existing US intelligence assessments, which had deprioritized Iraq.
Amidst proliferating national security threats, Dr. Kagan recognized the need to deepen America’s bench of national security talent. ISW launched its first landmark Hertog War Studies Program in 2013 to fill a major gap in traditional US education, which does not offer a foundational understanding of military history, theory, and practice. The Hertog War Studies Program offers a one-of-a-kind educational experience to college undergraduates and produces a valuable pipeline of national security talent.
ISW Warns that ISIS Aims for Mosul (October 9, 2013)
ISW Warns Mosul is Vulnerable to ISIS (November 15, 2013)
ISIS Returns to Diyala (March 31, 2014)
ISIS in Deir Ez-Zour (May 14, 2014)
ISIS Command and Control (May 22, 2014)
Capture of Mosul (June 11, 2014)
Shi’a Popular Mobilization (June 14, 2014)
ISIS Battle Plan for Baghdad (June 27, 2024)
Clockwise, top left: Hertog War Studies Program Class of 2013; Gen. David Petraeus (ret.) speaks to Hertog War Studies Program; ISW’s Jessica Lewis appears on Wall Street Journal Live; Hertog War Studies Program in the classroom.
ISW in 2014
Global Resonance
ISW became a globally recognized source of maps and information as ISIS seized power across most of Sunni Iraq and eastern Syria in 2014, surprising the United States despite ISW’s warnings in 2013. ISW became the go-to source for policy makers and journalists on the rise of ISIS and its expansion into a global organization. ISW applied its methodology to visualize the complex control of terrain within Syria, producing maps that were widely utilized in the US and internationally.
ISW’s Jennifer Cafarella traveled to the Middle East in 2015 and advised senior US military officials of the US –led counter-ISIS mission. Jennifer also led influential planning exercises to develop US options against ISIS, al Qaeda, and in response to the Syrian Civil War, shaping policy discussions across US administrations in 2016 and 2017.
Meanwhile, ISW launched its Russia-Ukraine program after Russia illegally seized and annexed Crimea in March 2014. ISW produced a detailed military analysis of the situation in eastern Ukraine, including Russian violations of international agreements. ISW’s Russia team expanded coverage to Russia’s role in the Middle East after Putin’s entrance into the Syrian Civil War in 2015.
Russia’s Objectives in Ukraine (February 3, 2015)
Putin’s Middle East Game Changer (September 17, 2015)
Clockwise, top left: ISW’s Jennifer Cafarella briefs Gen. David Petraeus (ret.) and Gen. John Allen (ret.) at Hertog War Studies; ISW’s Jennifer Cafarella appears on Wall Street Journal segment; ISW’s Marisa Cochrane Sullivan speaks at event on Iraq; ISW’s Jennifer Cafarella speaks on iNSS regarding ISIS.
ISW in 2018
Russia
ISW expanded its Russia program as Russian President Vladimir Putin leveraged his bases in Syria to project power into Africa and co-opt international mechanisms, including those established to negotiate an end to the Syrian war. Nataliya Bugayova, as Russia Team Lead, published a series of reports from 2018-2019 articulating the Kremlin’s worldview and the purpose and methods of Putin’s power projection.
ISW published a strategic approach to confronting the Russia challenge based on internal planning exercises, warning that Russia’s appearance of strength primarily resulted from Western inaction and lack of resolve, and that Russia was becoming increasingly emboldened. ISW’s Russia team also produced foundational assessments of Russian capabilities that provided valuable unclassified insights to inform public debate over Russia policy, including the Russian military’s order of battle.
Congress appointed Kimberly Kagan to the Syria Study Group in 2018 to help identify policy options for the Syrian crisis and the broader ramifications of that war as it continued to internationalize. ISW warned in late 2019 that Russia’s attempt to force a diplomatic resolution of the Syrian war had failed and that Russia was unable to deliver an outright military victory, which meant Syria would remain an unstable theater of conflict.
Russian Military Order of Battle (March 7, 2018)
How We Got Here with Russia: The Kremlin’s Worldview (March 13, 2019)
A Grand Strategy for Countering Russia (June 19, 2019)
Syria Study Group Report (September 24, 2019)
Clockwise, top left: ISW President Dr. Kimberly Kagan speaks at ISW’s Security Conference; Final Report and Recommendations from the Syria Study Group; ISW’s Russia Team Lead Nataliya Bugayova; ISW Chairman Gen. Jack Keane (ret.) speaks at ISW’s Security Conference.
ISW in 2020
ScalING
ISW launched the General Jack Keane Center for National Security and the General David H. Petraeus Center for Emerging Leaders in 2020 to recognize the extraordinary leadership and service of these patriots and enable institutional scaling.
ISW’s General Jack Keane Center for National Security aims to help shape informed national security policy by providing decision makers with continuous, timely, accurate, and independent analysis as well as superior insight on military activities vital to US national security. It also aims to innovate within the intelligence field to generate lessons learned and best practices from the public domain that can inform how the intelligence community refines its tradecraft.
ISW’s David H. Petraeus Center invests in strengthening the future cadre of America’s leaders through education, intellectual development, and hands-on leadership development. The Center deepens the bench of educated future leaders committed to America’s national security and unique role in the world. In 2021, Dr. Brian Babcock-Lumish joined ISW as the Recanati-Kaplan Chair to lead the Petraeus Center.
Meanwhile, ISW prepared to launch its China-Taiwan project, recognizing the need for unclassified insight into Chinese campaigns and methods in the Indo-Pacific theater and for strategic analysis of US options for responding to the China threat beyond military scenarios over Taiwan.
Clockwise, top left: ISW’s Mason Clark speaks on BBC segment; ISW’s Brian Babcock-Lumish teaches Hertog War Studies Program, ISW’s Jennifer Cafarella briefs Congress; Gen. David Petraeus (ret.) records an episode of ISW’s podcast Overwatch.
ISW in 2022
Informing Millions
ISW celebrated its 15th Anniversary in 2022 with stunning success as a global leader of news coverage and discourse with daily products reaching millions of viewers. This global success allowed ISW to transform rapidly and strengthen itself and its programs for sustainable growth in outyears.
ISW’s Russia team went onto a 7-day crisis footing as Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Mason Clark, George Barros, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Karolina Hird established ISW as the pre-eminent global source of analysis and mapping of Russia’s invasion, producing world-class insight to ISW’s global audience daily.
ISW launched a Geospatial Intelligence Team in 2022 to institutionalize and scale ISW’s exploitation of geospatial data, mapping methodologies, and technology partnerships. The Geospatial team produced new interactive maps of Ukraine and began supporting gall ISW portfolios with enhanced mapping capabilities. The Dr. Jack London Geospatial Fund enabled the team led by ISW’s George Barros.
The remaining ISW research team joined the Russia team on a permanent crisis footing after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. ISW began providing daily analysis and mapping of the unfolding conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. In partnership with the Critical Threats Project, ISW also continued its in-depth assessment of Iran’s regional proxy network and the associated risks to the United States, its allies, and partners in the region.
In 2023, ISW earned more global media mentions than any foreign policy think tank. World leaders recognize its work and use it in public briefings. US military and civilian leaders, from the White House to the front lines, rely on ISW’s insight and analysis.
Clockwise, top left: ISW Russia team members George Barros, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Karolina Hird pose for AP; ISW President Dr. Kimberly Kagan addresses the audience at ISW’s 2022 President’s Circle Benefit Dinner; ISW’s Nataliya Bugayova speaks at Yalta European Strategy Conference; Congressman Robert Portman uses an ISW map of Ukraine in a congressional hearing.
