China-Taiwan Weekly Update, October 26, 2023

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, October 26, 2023

Authors: Nils Peterson, Matthew Sperzel, and Daniel Shats of the Institute for the Study of War

Editors: Dan Blumenthal and Frederick W. Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute

Data Cutoff: October 24 at 5pm ET

The China–Taiwan Weekly Update focuses on the Chinese Communist Party’s paths to controlling Taiwan and relevant cross–Taiwan Strait developments.

Key Takeaways

1. A recent poll revealed broad backing among Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) supporters for a joint KMT-TPP presidential ticket. The polling data is consistent with ISW’s assessments that the two candidates will form a joint ticket, but such a ticket is unlikely to capture the entirety of each candidate’s support base.
2. The DPP and KMT are seizing on the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) probes into Foxconn. The DPP aims for Terry Gou to stay in the presidential race, while the KMT wants him to drop out.
3. The PRC Coast Guard and maritime militia committed aggression against Filipino ships near the Second Thomas Shoal. The PRC naval aggression contradicts the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) claim to build a peaceful Asia.
4. The National People’s Congress officially removed former Minister of Foreign Affairs Qin Gang and Defense Minister Li Shangfu from their posts on October 24.
5. The CCP is using the Israel-Hamas War to message its status as leader of the Global South and convey that the United States is not a responsible actor in the Middle East.

Taiwanese Presidential Election

A recent poll revealed broad backing among Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) supporters for a joint KMT-TPP presidential ticket. 81 percent of KMT supporters and 67 percent of TPP supporters approve of a joint presidential ticket, according to data from the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF).[1] The polling data is consistent with ISW’s assessments that the two candidates will form a joint ticket, but such a ticket is unlikely to capture the entirety of each candidate’s support base.

The KMT and TPP still need to resolve disagreements over the method of selecting a presidential candidate, however, as cooperation talks between the parties have made little headway. TPP candidate Ko Wen-je’s polling lead over KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih has emboldened him to take a tougher negotiating stance. Ko proposed two polling-based selection methods, one split 50-50 between mobile and landline phones, and another purely mobile-based, where his lead is especially wide.[2] Hou rejected both proposals but indicated his willingness to accept a poll as part of the selection process if equal weight was given to a primary vote. This illustrates his confidence in mobilizing KMT voters for a primary.[3] Hou also noted he has not ruled out being the vice president on a joint ticket, showing some flexibility in his negotiating stance.[4] Ko ridiculed Hou’s counter proposal, demonstrating an unwillingness to yield.[5]

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te is losing ground in the polls, which compounds the challenge for his electability in the face of TPP-KMT cooperation. TPOF has attributed Lai’s narrowing lead in the polls to public revelations relating to a damaging egg import scandal on the DPP government’s watch.[6] Support for the KMT has proven resilient in the face of scandals, however. The Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau is investigating KMT legislator Ma Wen-chun for allegedly leaking classified material about Taiwan’s submarine program to South Korea.[7] DPP accusations of Ma’s foreign collusion and treason have not translated to lower poll support for Hou.

The DPP and KMT are seizing on the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) probes into Foxconn to influence Terry Gou's decision-making about continuing his campaign. The DPP aims for Terry Gou to stay in the presidential race, while the KMT wants him to drop out. The state-owned Global Times revealed on October 22 that PRC authorities opened simultaneous tax and land use investigations into Foxconn enterprises in four Chinese provinces.[8] Foxconn’s founder Terry Gou is currently pursuing an independent run for president in Taiwan. Gou is polling in fourth place behind frontrunner Lai, TPP candidate Ko Wen-je, and KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih.[9] Gou said when he announced his campaign in August that his goal was to unify the DPP’s opposition, but his campaign draws votes from Ko and Hou. Gou’s campaign declined to comment on the investigations.[10]

• Top DPP officials, such as Vice President and presidential candidate Lai Ching-te, have framed the PRC probes as Chinese economic coercion to interfere in the election.[11] Defending Gou against the Foxconn probes serves to pressure him to remain in the race. Gou dropping out may be framed as a capitulation to the PRC.

• An October 24 editorial in the pro-KMT China Times called for Gou to withdraw to avoid helping Lai by splitting the opposition vote. The editorial cited the Foxconn probes as one of several recent controversies harming Gou’s campaign.[12] The China Times is a Taiwanese media outlet that receives editorial oversight from the PRC’s Taiwan Affairs Office on sensitive articles pertaining to cross-strait relations, according to a 2019 Financial Times report.[13]

• The PRC-based Global Times published an English-language article about the probe on October 22 that cited unnamed “analysts from both sides of the Taiwan Straits” who also noted that Gou is a spoiler candidate who helps Lai. This is consistent with Global Times coverage of Gou’s campaign when Gou announced his candidacy. The PRC considers Lai a secessionist and the framing in the article is consistent with the PRC’s aim of undermining Lai’s campaign.

• An October 23 Global Times article also highlighted Taiwanese speculation that the Foxconn probes were a “way for the mainland to prevent Gou from running.” It quoted an unnamed PRC expert who speculated Gou was running “most likely” because US or DPP authorities are coercing him to damage anti-DPP unity.[14]

Chinese Communist Party Regional Coercion

The PRC Coast Guard and maritime militia committed aggression against Filipino ships near the Second Thomas Shoal. The PRC Coast Guard and maritime militia rammed Filipino ships on a resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal on October 22.[15] The maritime militia is an assortment of professional vessels and fishing boats that operate under the CCP’s control but are not standard military ships.[16] The aggression aims to legitimize PRC territorial claims to the Second Thomas Shoal, which the Philippines has occupied since 1999.

The PRC’s naval aggression contradicts the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) claim to build a peaceful Asia. The Embassy of the PRC in the Republic of the Philippines urged the Filipino government on October 23 to “stop causing trouble” and remove the grounded ship near the shoal.[17] The maritime aggression and PRC rhetoric demonstrate the CCP is not interested in long-term friendship with neighboring countries such as the Philippines. It also contradicts the PRC's claim to “adhere to the concept of peaceful coexistence” and “maintain long-term friendships with neighboring countries” in an October 24 foreign policy white paper.[18]

Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army Decision Making

The National People’s Congress officially removed Defense Minister Li Shangfu from his post on October 24, a month after the CCP purged him following investigations into corrupt military equipment procurement.[19] Li oversaw the Central Military Commission Equipment Development Department, the organization that oversees military procurement. The Central Military Commission Equipment Development Department announced investigations into corrupt procurement practices in July 2023.

The National People’s Congress also officially removed former Minister of Foreign Affairs Qin Gang from his official role as State Councilor on October 24.[21] The State Council is an executive organ within the PRC. Wang Yi re-assumed the role of Minister of Foreign Affairs on July 25.[22] Wang is a veteran diplomat who served as foreign minister from 2013 to 2022, and as Central Foreign Affairs Commission Director since the start of 2023.

The dismissals are the latest in a trend of purges of high-ranking PLA officers. The CCP purged PLA Rocket Force commander Li Yuchao and two of his deputies in July 2023 following corruption investigations.[23] They were replaced later that month by Wang Houbin and Xu Xisheng, two commanders with no prior experience serving in the Rocket Force. The purges indicate Xi’s perspective that the PLA is not sufficiently loyal to the party and his willingness to risk projecting instability within the CCP to establish loyalty within the party.[24]

Israel-Hamas War

Media outlets with CCP oversight hypocritically and falsely accused the Republic of China (Taiwan) of not assisting overseas Taiwanese to evacuate Israel. The Taiwanese media outlet China Times spread rumors during the week of October 9 that the Republic of China (Taiwan) Ministry of Foreign Affairs told an ROC national stranded in Israel to “book his own flight” home.[25] The China Times is a media outlet that receives editorial oversight from the People’s Republic of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office on sensitive articles pertaining to cross-strait relations, according to a 2019 Financial Times report.[26] The CCP-controlled Huanqiu repeated the narrative on October 12 that the China Times spread earlier in the week.[27] The ROC proved Huaniqu’s narrative false by evacuating nine ROC nationals, four Guatemalans, and one Paraguayan from Israel to Rome on a chartered plane on October 20.[28] The false narrative also conflicts with the PRC’s assertion that it would assist PRC nationals in leaving the region. The PRC’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs instead told PRC citizens on October 16 to buy commercial flights back to the PRC.[29]

This false reporting is consistent with the CCP's propagated narrative that the ROC government is capable neither of governing effectively nor of protecting its citizenry.[30] The CCP spreads this false narrative to undermine the confidence of the ROC populace in its government. This supports the main effort of the CCP coercion campaign, which is to unify with Taiwan through means other than invasion, by degrading the confidence of the ROC populace that its government can effectively govern.

The CCP is using the Israel-Hamas War to message its status as leader of the Global South and convey that the United States is not a responsible actor in the Middle East. The PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) condemned violence between Palestine and Israel since October 7 but did not condemn Hamas.[31] CCP English-language propaganda outlets accused the United States and European countries of hindering the creation of a Palestinian state because of “biased” support for Israel.[32] CCP-propagated narratives also portray the party as an ostensibly neutral broker in the Israel-Palestine conflict. This narrative blames the West and primarily the United States for the current instability in the Middle East in contrast to the supposedly responsible and problem-solving PRC.

• The PRC Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi held a phone call with Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen on October 23. Wang emphasized the importance of the two-state solution to resolving historical Israeli-Palestinian tensions.[33] Wang opposed “acts that harm civilians” and “any violations of international law” in his call with Cohen.[34]

• The PRC Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi held a phone call with Palestinian Foreign Affairs Minister Riyad al-Maliki on October 23. Wang expressed support for the two-state solution and the Palestinian right to return.[35] He stated that the PRC supports an immediate ceasefire to “ensure the most basic living conditions for the people of Gaza.”[36]

• The party routinely frames the PRC as a developing country and says that Chinese-led institutions, such as BRICS, represent the Global South on the international stage.[37] The CCP’s call for a ceasefire and implementation of the two-state solution amidst the Israel-Hamas War aligns with the party’s messaging that it is the leader of the Global South.

The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) retained its three-ship task force in the Middle East after relief from another PLAN task force. There are now six PLAN warships in unspecified locations in the Middle East since mid-October.[38] The 45th PLAN Task Force took over as scheduled from the 44th Task Force in the Gulf of Aden in early October.[39] The stated purpose of these task forces is to conduct escort missions for merchant ships in the Gulf of Aden.[40] The PRC denies that the additional ships in the region are in response to the Israel-Hamas War.[41] The 44th task force staying behind is unusual and a deviation from the normal procedure of one task force rotating out of the region upon a handover, however.

[1] https://www.tpof dot org/%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89/%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89/%E5%9C%8B%E4%BA%BA%E6%80%8E%E9%BA%BC%E7%9C%8B%E8%97%8D%E7%99%BD%E5%90%88%EF%BC%882023%E5%B9%B410%E6%9C%8819%E6%97%A5%EF%BC%89/

[2] https://tw.news.yahoo dot com/%E6%9F%AF%E6%96%87%E5%93%B2%E6%86%82%E6%B0%91%E4%B8%BB%E5%88%9D%E9%81%B8%E5%86%8D%E4%B8%8A%E6%BC%94-716%E9%81%8A%E8%A1%8C-%E6%9C%80%E6%96%B0%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF%E5%87%BA%E7%88%90-%E9%80%99%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82-%E4%B8%8D%E6%8C%BA%E4%BA%86-235757356.html
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[4] https://focustaiwan dot tw/politics/202310240007

[5] https://www.taiwannews dot com.tw/en/news/5027348

[6] https://www.tpof dot org/%e7%b2%be%e9%81%b8%e6%96%87%e7%ab%a0/2023%e5%b9%b4%ef%bc%99%e6%9c%88%e3%80%8c%e9%80%b2%e5%8f%a3%e9%9b%9e%e8%9b%8b%e9%a2%a8%e6%9a%b4%e3%80%81%e6%94%bf%e9%bb%a8%e7%ab%b6%e7%88%ad%e8%88%872024%e7%b8%bd%e7%b5%b1%e5%a4%a7%e9%81%b8%e3%80%8deng/

[7] https://www.cna dot com.tw/news/aipl/202310020028.aspx

[8] https://hqtime dot huanqiu dot com/article/4F2cjYhXcQC

[9] https://focustaiwan dot tw/politics/202309280004

[10] https://www.storm dot mg/article/4887748

[11] https://www.reuters.com/technology/foxconn-shares-drop-after-chinese-rep...

[12] https://www.chinatimes dot com/opinion/20231024005023-262101?chdtv

[13] https://www.ft.com/content/036b609a-a768-11e9-984c-fac8325aaa04

[14] https://www.globaltimes dot cn/page/202310/1300340.shtml

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[15] https://www.state.gov/u-s-support-for-our-philippine-allies-in-the-face-...

https://apnews.com/article/south-china-sea-philippines-second-thomas-sho...

[16] https://www.csis.org/analysis/pulling-back-curtain-chinas-maritime-militia

[17] http://ph.china-embassy.gov.cn/chn/sgdt/202310/t20231023_11165870.htm

[18] https://www.mfa dot gov.cn/web/ziliao_674904/1179_674909/202310/t20231024_11167069.shtml

[19] http://www.npc dot gov.cn/npc/c2/c30834/202310/t20231024_432495.html

[20] https://mp dot weixin.qq.com/s/Avy85kjXa2QjEO7rpo4Rgg

[21] http://www.npc dot gov.cn/npc/c2/c30834/202310/t20231024_432495.html

[22] http://www dot news.cn/politics/leaders/2023-07/25/c_1129767580.htm

[23] https://www.scmp dot com/news/china/military/article/3229515/china-unveils-new-pla-rocket-force-leadership-after-former-commanders-snared-corruption-scandal

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[26] https://www.ft.com/content/036b609a-a768-11e9-984c-fac8325aaa04

[27] https://hqtime dot huanqiu.com/article/4EuNXbHBLPY

[28] https://www.taiwannews dot com.tw/en/news/5024331

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[29] https://www.fmprc dot gov.cn/fyrbt_673021/jzhsl_673025/202310/t20231016_11161651.shtml

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[31] https://www.fmprc dot gov.cn/fyrbt_673021/dhdw_673027/202310/t20231008_11157292.shtml

[32] https://www.globaltimes dot cn/page/202310/1299692.shtml?id=12

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[33] https://www.fmprc dot gov.cn/wjbzhd/202310/t20231024_11166569.shtml

[34] https://www.fmprc dot gov.cn/wjbzhd/202310/t20231024_11166569.shtml

[35] https://www.fmprc dot gov.cn/wjbzhd/202310/t20231024_11166485.shtml

[36] https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/wjbzhd/202310/t20231024_11166485.shtml

[37] http://www.news dot cn/world/2023-08/24/c_1212260089.htm

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[41]https://www.globaltimes dot cn/page/202310/1300424.shtml