Publications

The Threat of New Al-Qaeda Leadership: The Case of Syria's Abu Mohammed Al-Joulani

June 30, 2015 - Jennifer Cafarella

The death of al-Qaeda’s general manager, Nasir al-Wahayshi, will likely disrupt al-Qaeda’s global operations until he is replaced. It is likely that al-Qaeda leader Aymen al-Zawahiri will nominate his replacement according to traditional leadership patterns. It is dangerous but plausible, however, that Zawahiri will seek to maximize the influence of newer al-Qaeda leaders. One possible candidate for future al-Qaeda leadership is Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, the leader of al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra.

Iraq Situation Report: June 27 - 29, 2015

June 29, 2015 - Sinan Adnan

There have been unconfirmed reports of advances by the Federal Police (FP) and Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi’a militias in Baiji district amid renewed clearing operations declared by the FP.

ISIS-Linked Regional Activity: June 2015

June 27, 2015 - Harleen Gambhir

ISIS’s affiliates gained new terrain in Libya and Afghanistan, while launching significant attacks in Yemen, Egypt, and Kuwait. ISIS also declared a new governorate in Russia’s North Caucasus. These gains allow the organization to offset territorial losses in Libya and northern Syria and maintain its claim that it is “Remaining and Expanding” a year after the declaration of the Caliphate. 

 

Iraq Situation Report: June 25 - 26, 2015

June 26, 2015 - Sinan Adnan

Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani’s Shi’a religious establishment (Hawza) has issued new guidance that is likely to increase the size of the armed groups fighting under its supervision and ultimately its base of popular support.

Ukraine Crisis Update: June 25, 2015

June 25, 2015 - Institute for the Study of War

Russian backed Separatist forces have launched multiple unsuccessful assaults on Marinka, a Ukrainian held town near Donetsk.

ISIS Loses Libyan Stronghold

June 24, 2015 - Institute for the Study of War

ISIS lost control of its primary Libyan stronghold in the eastern city of Derna on June 12. Local Islamist groups expelled ISIS from the city following ISIS’s assassination of a local leader. The loss of Derna is unlikely to affect ISIS’s military strategy in Libya, as the organization controls other cities along the central coast. However, it suggests that ISIS may struggle to maintain social control in cities outside of Iraq and Syria, as the organization ultimately seeks to do across the Middle East and North Africa.

Iraq Situation Report: June 23 - 24, 2015

June 24, 2015 - Sinan Adnan

Diyala Province will likely become the renewed focus of security efforts amidst an ISIS resurgence in the province.

ISIS Declares Governorate in Russia’s North Caucasus Region

June 23, 2015 - Harleen Gambhir

ISW assessed in early June 2015 that one of ISIS’s most likely courses of action during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan would be to declare a governorate in Russia’s North Caucasus. ISIS indeed announced the creation of a new governorate, called Wilayat Qawqaz (Caucasus) in the region on June 23, 2015, after several senior militants in the area pledged allegiance to ISIS.

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