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[1] Maegan Vazquez, Zachary Cohen and Kevin Liptak, “President Trump: ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is dead,” CNN, October 27, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/27/politics/isis-abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-operation-donald-trump/index.html.
[2] Jennifer Cafarella with Brandon Wallace and Jason Zhou, “ISIS’s Second Comeback: Assessing the Next ISIS Insurgency,” Institute for the Study of War, July 23, 2019, https://understandingwar.org/report/isiss-second-comeback-assessing-next-isis-insurgency.
[3] Brandon Wallace with Jennifer Cafarella, “ISIS Reasserts Global Reach for Ramadan 2019,” Institute for the Study of War, May 1, 2019, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2019/05/isis-reasserts-global-reach-for-ramadan.html.
[4] Robert Postings, “ISIS announces new India and Pakistan provinces, casually breaking up Khorasan,” Defense Post, May 15, 2019, https://thedefensepost.com/2019/05/15/islamic-state-pakistan-province-al-hind/.
[5] Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate and the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team,
“Ninth report of the Secretary-General on the threat posed by ISIL (Da’esh) to international peace and security and the range of United Nations efforts in support of Member States in countering the threat,” United Nations Security Council, July 31, 2019, https://undocs.org/S/2019/612.
[6] Jennifer Cafarella and Caitlin Forrest with Charles Aubin, “ISIS Plotting Attacks from Afghanistan,” Institute for the Study of War, November 17, 2017, https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/isis-plotting-attacks-afghanistan; Rukmini Callimachi and Eric Schmitt, “Manchester Bomber Met With ISIS Unit in Libya, Officials Say,” New York Times, June 3, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/03/world/middleeast/manchester-bombing-salman-abedi-islamic-state-libya.html.
[7] [“Terrorism, the 20-year-old arrested in Bari planned an attack on St. Peter’s for Christmas: “Let’s put bombs in churches,”] la Repubblica, December 17, 2018, https://bari.repubblica.it/cronaca/2018/12/17/news/bari_convalidato_il_fermo_del_20enne_somalo_accusato_di_terrorismo-214449051/?refresh_ce.
[8] The attack plotter was arrested in April 2018. ISIS officially declared its province in the Philippines in July 2018. Daniel de Simone, “Lewis Ludlow: How the Oxford Street terror plotter was caught,” BBC, March 6, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47458354.
[9] Jennifer Cafarella with Brandon Wallace and Jason Zhou, “ISIS’s Second Comeback: Assessing the Next ISIS Insurgency,” Institute for the Study of War, July 23, 2019, https://understandingwar.org/report/isiss-second-comeback-assessing-next-isis-insurgency.
Baghdadi Leaves Behind a Global ISIS Threat
By Jennifer Cafarella and Brandon Wallace withCaitlin Forrest
Key Takeaway:ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has left behind a capable globalorganization that continued to expand despite the group’s loss of itsterritorial caliphate in March 2019. ISIS added four new provinces to its self-declaredcaliphate between April-May 2019: Central Africa, Turkey, India, and Pakistan. ISIS’s global expansion wassufficiently entrenched at the time of Baghdadi’s death such that a successorwill likely be able to sustain much of ISIS’s global operations. Dangerous possibilities includea new collaboration between ISIS and al Qaeda to launch attacks in the West.
AU.S. special operations raid killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi on October26, 2019 in Northwest Syria.[1] Baghdadi’s death is amajor symbolic blow to ISIS that could also disrupt its operations. ISIS’sglobal expansion was sufficiently entrenched at the time of Baghdadi’s death. Asuccessor to Baghdadi will likely be able to sustain much of ISIS’s globaloperations, however. Dangerous possibilities include a new collaborationbetween ISIS and al Qaeda to launch attacks in the West.
Baghdadi made ISIS’s global expansion the focus ofits 2019 campaign before his death. Baghdadi released his second and finalvideo on April 29, 2019.[2]Baghdadi used the video to highlight ISIS’s expanding global campaign anddismiss its losses in Iraq and Syria. He presented himself as the field commanderof a global jihad. He praised ISIS’s global expansion and its devastatingattacks abroad, emphasizing the 2019Sri Lanka Easter Day bombings.[3]The video sent a message to his followers that the creation and subsequent defenseof the caliphate in Iraq and Syria enabled a global surge toward the Salafi-jihadistend state of a single, political-religious body ruling over all ‘Muslim lands.’
The ISIS global organization at the time ofBaghdadi’s death includes 14 provinces, all of which publicly renewed theirpledges of allegiance to him after his April 2019 video. ISIS had added fournew provinces in 2019: CentralAfrica, India, Pakistan, and Turkey (a province which has likely existed inpractice for years).[4]ISIS also simplified and reorganized many of its provinces as it recovered fromits losses in Iraq and Syria. Some of ISIS’s provinces had gone dormant,indicating either (or both) the success of anti-ISIS operations or ISIS’s deprioritizationof those provinces. The following graphic shows the active and dormant ISIS provincesat the time of Baghdadi’s death.
ISIS’sglobal presence provides footholds from which to further metastasize, launchattacks, and gain resources to fund its resurgence in Iraq and Syria. The UNcounter-terrorism committee warned in late July 2019 that ISIS is working to “reinvestin the capacity to direct and facilitate complex international attacks.”[5] At least four of ISIS’sprovinces abroad have already enabled ISIS attack plots in the West to date.ISIS used its province in Afghanistan to direct attack efforts in the U.S. as early as 2016 and its province in Libya to support attacks in Europe in 2017.[6] ISIS’s newer province in Somalia was linked to at least one attack plot in Italy in 2018.[7] ISIS’s province in the Philippines also attempted to direct an attack in the U.K. in 2018.[8] ISIS’s provinces abroad are also funneling resources into ISIS’s resurgent campaign in Iraq and Syria.[9] The retention of even some of these global provinces will make ISIS an enduring threat to the West.
Baghdadi’sdeath could be a turning point in the relationship between ISIS and al Qaeda. ISIS may now be vulnerable to a renewed push by al Qaeda to reclaim leadership of the global jihadist movement. Al Qaeda will likely attempt to siphon local support and recruits away from ISIS affiliates abroad. For example, al Qaeda affiliates in South Asia and Africa have competed fiercely with ISIS for local support and may experience new success.
A jihadist merger may yet occur, however. Baghdadi’s refusal to accept mediation of his quarrel with al Qaeda precluded greater cooperation between the groups after 2014. His successor may be more willing to consider a unification, even a limited and pragmatic one. Baghdadi’s location in Syria’s al Qaeda-dominated Idlib Province could indicate that even he had begun to reconsider a collaborative relationship with al Qaeda. Baghdadi’s death is certainly an important victory in the fight against jihadist terror, but that fight is far from over.
Note on ISIS Sanctuary Map: This map was updated on November 7, 2019 to reflect an adjustment to the assessed ISIS support zone leading towards Qamishli. Previous versions had the support zone connecting to Amude.
