August 22, 2012-August 31, 2012

Communications Minister resigns

On August 27, Iraqiya member Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi announced that his resignation from the post of Communications Minister had been accepted by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Mohammed Allawi, a cousin of Iraqiya leader Ayad Allawi, said that he tendered the resignation in late July, complaining of “political interference” with the ministry’s work. He subsequently accused Maliki of seeking to take over the ministry in order to profit from its earnings in the telecommunications sector. Mohammed Allawi is the first cabinet minister to resign since Maliki’s second government was formed in December 2010. While the resignation can be viewed as the latest step in the marginalization of Iraqiya, it may also open space for Iraqiya to engage in a more potent and productive form of opposition to Maliki without the complicating factor of having to explain the presence of the Iraqiya leader’s cousin in government. Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi is thought to have been replaced in an acting capacity by Minister of State for Provincial Affairs Torhan al-Mufti of the Iraqi Turkmen Front.

IHEC disputes place elections in jeopardy

The head of the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC), Faraj al-Haidari, announced on Tuesday that he and two other IHEC board members had been found guilty of corruption and given suspended one-year prison terms by a Baghdad criminal court. Haidari and another of the convicted members, Karim al-Tamimi, were arrested in April on relatively minor charges. This was an apparent act of intimidation by Maliki, whose petition to throw out thousands of Iraqiya votes was rejected by Haidari after the 2010 elections. The convictions, which would prevent the board members from holding public office in Iraq again, came as long-standing disputes intensified over the potential composition of the next IHEC board. A proposal to expand the board from 9 to 15 members in order to accommodate the chosen candidates of a wider number of parties suggests that the impartiality of the next board will be highly suspect. The ongoing political maneuvering over the constitution of the board and continued prevarication over the procedure for electing its members also renders increasingly unlikely the prospect of provincial elections taking place in March 2013.

Central Bank responds to Iran accusations

The Central Bank of Iraq this week took steps to respond to a New York Times report alleging that Iraqi financial institutions and oil-smuggling operations have been facilitating Iranian efforts to circumvent international sanctions, bolstering Tehran’s reserves of US dollars to stabilize its exchange rates and pay for imports. The report noted that Elaf Islamic Bank, which last month was barred by President Obama from any dealings with the US banking system for enabling transactions on behalf of Iranian banks was continuing to participate in the Iraq Central Bank’s daily auction of USD. The Central Bank then announced on Al-Iraqiyah state television on Sunday that it will provide fixed weekly amounts of dollars to all banks, exchange offices, and money transfer companies for their resale to citizens planning to travel. The Central Bank subsequently announced, again on state television, the introduction of regulations governing the establishment of branches of foreign banks inside Iraq, requiring local monetary authorities to testify that banks wishing to establish new branches are not suspected of money laundering.

Baghdad-Erbil oil row continues

Despite the recent resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan region, the Baghdad-Erbil oil dispute is far from resolved. On August 20, French oil company Total exacerbated tensions by purchasing a share of an exploration block in Suleimaniyah province, ignoring threats from the Iraqi government about possible punitive action for signing contracts in Kurdistan. The head of the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) Foreign Relations department highlighted the uneasy and temporary nature of the current arrangements on hydrocarbons exports, claiming that the KRG had agreed to limit its share of the federal budget to 17% until the next general election as a gesture of good faith. This gesture was undermined, however, when the KRG threatened on Tuesday to halt oil shipments once more, claiming that no signs have been observed that Baghdad will resume payments to oil companies working in Kurdistan. An Iraqi government source told Reuters that KRG authorities need to present receipts for company expenses and provide further auditing before payments can be approved. In a sign that Baghdad may be reassessing its own approach to oil-industry investment in the face of Kurdish success, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs Hussein al-Shahristani reportedly announced that that the Iraqi government is considering offering more lucrative contracts to international oil companies ahead of a fifth round of licensing auctions, admitting that the fourth round of exploration blocks accomplished little. Deputy Prime Minister of Iraq Ruz Nuri Shawiz, of President Jalal Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, subsequently told Reuters that the KRG is ready to restart negotiations to end the hydrocarbons dispute. Shawiz noted that Kurdish officials had met with National Alliance head Ibrahim al-Jaafari for preliminary talks, with the improved atmosphere implying room for progress among political parties on passing an amended 2007 draft of the oil and gas law.

Tensions at Syrian border amid signs of Iranian pressure

The situation at the Iraqi-Syrian border, meanwhile, remains tense. On August 20, Kurdish soldiers at the northern Faysh Khabur border crossing said that they had received orders from the Iraqi government to turn away refugees attempting to cross from Syria. Refugees are being assisted by the PKK, according to McClatchy’s David Enders. Iraq temporarily closed the al-Qaim/al-Bukamal crossing on August 22, erecting three-meter-high walls and surveillance cameras, closing all roads to and from the crossing and leaving some Syrian refugees trapped at the crossing for days.

Despite the successful defusing of the Iraqi-Peshmerga standoff near the Syrian border in Ninewa province last week, incidents of cross-border shooting this week demonstrated the heightened tensions in the border areas. On August 24, the Syrian Local Coordination Committees reported that Iraqi forces at al-Qaim had opened fire on a group of Syrians who had approached the border. Meanwhile, there were reports that two rockets landed near Iraqi troops at al-Qaim, while unknown gunmen opened fire on Iraqi troops from across the border on Sunday.

In signs that Iran may be seeking to use its influence in Iraq to affect the situation on the ground in Syria, senior Iran-based Iraqi cleric Kazem al-Haeri issued a fatwa forbidding the sale of weapons in central and southern Iraq to “unknown destinations.” Sheikh Muhammad al-Yaqoubi, the spiritual leader of the Islamic Fadhila Party,followed suit. The fatwas follow rumors that Syrian opposition fighters are receiving a growing number of arms bought in central and southern Iraq.

At the Non-Aligned Movement summit in Tehran, however, the Iraqi delegation maintained its public policy of non-interference. Ahead of the start of the summit, Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari told summit foreign ministers on Wednesday that Iraq “supports any international or regional effort” to resolve the Syrian crisis, supporting “the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people for freedom, democracy and self-determination.” Maliki, meanwhile, was expected to outline an initiative, based on the informal proposal submitted by the Iraqis at March’s Arab League summit in Baghdad, for a national political dialogue in Syria under Arab League and United Nations supervision, and the formation of a “government of national unity that includes all the ranks of the Syrian people.”

High-profile political, religious and security-force deaths

In worrying signs of escalating violence, a number of high-profile figures, including officials, religious leaders and security force commanders, were killed or critically injured in attacks over the past two weeks. Certain attacks bore the hallmarks of al-Qaeda’s Iraqi affiliates. On August 18, influential Sunni cleric Sheikh Mahdi al-Sumidaie and four of his bodyguards were targeted by an IED in the Yarmouk neighborhood west of central Baghdad after he finished leading Friday prayers. The former leader of a Salafist militant group that fought American troops in western Baghdad, Sumidaie had been a vocal opponent of sectarian violence since the US withdrawal, launching a new political party aiming to bring together Sunni and Shi’ite extremist groups that fought US troops. Sumidaie was also one of few Sunnis publicly to defend Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s stance on Syria. On Friday, moreover, two explosions at an outdoor mosque in Sadr City killed at least three and wounded six, including Sadrist official Nasser al-Saadi. A number of high-ranking security officials were also assassinated in recent days: on Monday, senior border forces commander Brigadier General Abdul Hussein Mohsen was killed by unknown gunmen in Taji, north of Baghdad; an unnamed colonel was killed in a wave of attacks along a main route north of the capital on Tuesday; and on Wednesday, Brigadier General Nadhim Tayeh, commander of emergency police in west Baghdad, was killed by gunmen with silenced weapons while driving his private car and wearing civilian clothes.

Past Updates Iraq Update #34- August 15-August 22, 2012: Data suggests rise in violence along historic fault lines Iraq Update #33- August 3-August 15, 2012: Baghdad’s Tensions with Irbil and Ankara DiminishIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 32- July 27-August 3, 2012Iraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 31- July 20-Aug 3, 2012: Al-Qaeda Leader Claims Credit for Deadly AttacksIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 30- July 16-July 20, 2012: Rebels Take Over Syrian Border CheckpointsIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 29- July 6-July 16, 2012: White House Says Daqduq Issue Not ClosedIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 28- June 29-July 6, 2012: Sadrists Back DownIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 27- June 16-June 22, 2012: Maliki Requests U.S. To Stop Exxon OperationsIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 26- June 9-June 15, 2012: Sadr Returns To Najaf, Speaks With MalikiIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 25- June 1-June 8, 2012: Sadr Goes To Iran, Pressure Likely To IncreaseIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 24- May 25-June 1, 2012: The Numbers GameIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 23- May 22- May 25, 2012: Efforts To Remove Maliki IntensifyIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 22- May 22-May 18, 2012:Hashemi Trial BeginsIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 21- May 4-May 11, 2012: Daqduq Case DismissedIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 20- April 27-May 4, 2012: Ultimatum Issued To MalikiIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 19- April 20-April 27, 2012: Maliki Visits TehranIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 18- April 14- April 20, 2012: Iraqiyya, Kurds Consider Vote to Unseat MalikiIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 17- April 5- April 13, 2012: Members Appointed To Human Rights CommissionIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 16- March 30- April 5, 2012: KRG President Massoud Barzani Visits WashingtonIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 15- March 23- March 30, 2012: Baghdad Hosts Arab League SummitIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 14- March 15-March 23, 2012: Barzani Disparages MalikiIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 13- March 8- Marrch 23, 2012:  Maliki Visits Kuwait, Emir to Attend Arab SummitIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis,  Update 12- March 6- March 8, 2012: Diyala Appoints New GovernorIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 11- February 24-March 6, 2012: Diyala Governor Reportedly ResignsIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 10- February 17- February 24, 2012: Judiciary Sets Hashemi’s Court DateIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 9- February 10- February 17, 2012: Investigation Escalates Hashemi CaseIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 8- February 3- February 10, 2012: Iraqiyya Ends Boycott of Council of MinistersIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 7- January 27- February 3, 2012: Iraqiyya Returns to Parliament Iraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 6- January 20- January 27, 2012: Iraqiyya Contemplates Next MoveIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 5- January 13- January 20, 2012: Iraqiyya Continues BoycottIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 4- December 30- January 13, 2012: Kurds Walk Out of Parliament Session in ProtestIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 3- December 23- December 30, 2011: Tensions Increase between Maliki and SadristsIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 2- December 19- December 23, 2011: Crisis escalates in Iraqi MediaIraq’s Post-Withdrawal Crisis, Update 1- December 19, 2011: Timeline of political crisis