ByBradley Hanlon and Bryan Amoroso
KeyTakeaway: Russia is accelerating its efforts to subvert the Syrian politicalprocess by establishing a new diplomatic framework that sets conditions toexpel the U.S. from Northern Syria. Russia announced its intent to hostdelegates from all major opposition, ethnic, and tribal factions at a “SyrianCongress on National Dialogue” in Sochi on November 18. Russia may exploit theconference to broker a wider reconciliation deal between the Bashar al AssadRegime and the Syrian Kurdish YPG under conditions that preclude long-term U.S.influence in Syria.
Russiawill reportedly host a political conference called the “Syrian Congress onNational Dialogue” in Sochi on November 18. Russian media claims that theconference will include up to 1,500 participants representing major politicaland armed opposition groups, local councils, tribal gatherings, and variousfactions of Syrian Kurds.[1]The Russian Foreign Ministry published an official list of invitees thatincludes the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its rival KurdishNational Council (KNC); the exiled High Negotiations Committee (HNC) backed bySaudi Arabia and the Bashar al Assad regime-tolerated Moscow and CairoPlatforms; and armed anti-Assad opposition groups including the Southern Front.[2]It remains unclear which if any of these groups will attend the conference,although the public invitations are likely intended to signal inclusiveness.Syrian Ambassador to the UN Bashar al-Jaafari also stressed the Assad regime’s willingnessto participate.[3]Russia will reportedly use the venue to propose constitutional reforms, theformation of a transitional government that retains Syrian President Basharal-Assad, and new municipal, parliamentary, and presidential elections forSyria by 2021, according to unidentified sources familiar with the conference.[4]
Theconference, if successful, will undermine or coopt international efforts toreach a political settlement to the Syrian Civil War. Russia has usedalternative diplomatic venues – such as the trilateral Astana Talks with Turkeyand Iran – to capture and shape the UN Geneva Process. Russia uses thesemeasures to demonstrate its legitimacy as an international arbiter whilesimultaneously ensuring a favorable political outcome that preserves itsinterests in the Syrian Civil War. Russia could also use the conference tobroker a deal with the Syrian Kurds at the expense of the U.S. in NorthernSyria. Russia is reportedly prepared to offer federal status to the SyrianKurds in exchange for their wider reconciliation with the Assad Regime.[5] The Syrian Kurdish PYD haspreviously been barred from participation in political negotiations at theGeneva Talks at Turkey’s insistence. Russia reportedly excluded Turkey fromactive participation in the Syrian Congress on National Dialogue – likely toencourage meaningful engagement by the Syrian Kurds.[6] The outcome of these negotiations could include an agreement that constrains or ultimately expels the U.S. Anti-ISIS Coalition from Northern Syria.
Russia has recently deepened its increased cooperation with the Syrian Kurdish PYD to assert itself as a viable partner ahead of the Syrian Congress on National Dialogue. The Russian Armed Forces reportedly assumed full control of the Menagh Military Airbase north of Aleppo City on October 27 following a withdrawal by the Syrian Kurdish YPG. Russia previously deployed military personnel to Menagh Airbase and nearby Tel Rifaat on October 20 to preempt military operations by Turkey against the majority-Kurdish Afrin Canton in Western Aleppo Province.[7] Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov also met with officials from the Syrian Kurdish PYD in Qamishli in Hasaka Province on October 18 to discuss Syria’s future political outcome.[8]Russian Senator Ziad Sabsabi conducted a near-simultaneous visit to Qamishli in coordination with the Russian Ministry of Defense to secure the release of twenty-one Russian Chechens and Dagestanis from Afrin Canton.[9]Russia has also mounted long-standing efforts to generate a unified bloc of Syrian Kurds. Russian Gen. Alexander Dvornikov hosted a conference for representatives from 24 Syrian Kurdish political parties – including the PYD and KNC – at the Hmeymim Airbase on the Syrian Coast in December 2016.[10]Russia nonetheless faces challenges from its partner in the Assad Regime. Assad reportedly rejected calls to consider federalism and favorable constitutional reforms for the Syrian Kurds by Russia in October 2016.[11] The upcoming Syrian Congress on National Dialogue in Sochi will likely encounter similar hurdles. Russia nonetheless stands to use its leadership of the political process to further subvert the future influence of the U.S. in Syria.
[1]https://ria(.)ru/syria/20171031/1507926606.html
[2]http://www.mid(.)ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2927253
[3]http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-jaafari/syrian-government-says-ready-to-take-part-in-moscow-backed-congress-idUSKBN1D02CX
[4]http://www.rudaw.net/arabic/kurdistan/1910201715
[5] https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/10/syria-federal-state-kurds-turkey-russia.html;https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/10/turkey-russia-mediates-between-kurds-and-assad.html;http://in.reuters.com/article/mideast-crisis-russia-syria/russia-says-federal-model-is-possible-for-syria-in-future-idINKCN0W21TP
[6] http://www.shaam.org/news/syria-news/الخطة-الروسية-في-الوصول-للحل-السلمي-في-سوريا-والتحضيرات-لـ-مؤتمر-الشعوب-في-حميميم.html
[9] https://sputniknews(.)com/middleeast/201710221058441116-russia-syria-rescue-operation/; https://www.enabbaladi.net/archives/179105
[10] http://www.all4syria.info/Archive/371034
[11]http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/10/turkey-russia-mediates-between-kurds-and-assad.html
