By: Jessa Rose Dury-Agri, Patrick Martin, and the ISW Iraq Team
Iraq’sCounter Terrorism Service (CTS) units resumed their advance in western Mosul onApril 11 after a 19-day pause. CTS units areadvancing along two axes. The northern advance will link upwith the 9th Iraqi Army (IA) Armored Division conductingclearing operationsnorthwest of the city. Additional CTS units are encirclingthe Old City toward the sector’s northern boundary. CTS Commander Abdul Ghani al-Assadi indicatedhis troops may opena corridornorth of the Old City in hopes that ISIS militants will flee the Old Cityrather than fight in the dense complex. The U.N estimates as many as 400,000civilians are trapped within the OldCity. ISIS has intentionally drawnU.S.-led Coalition airstrikes on structures within the Old City where it hasforced civilians to congregate. ISIS will continue this strategy, as itsuccessfully stirred up political blowback. ISIS also conducted small-scale chemicalweaponsattacks on ISF in the Old City, though with minimalimpact according to ISF and U.S. Department of Defense sources. ISIS willlikely allocate its greatest defenses to al-Nuri Mosque, where ISIS leader AbuBakr al-Baghdadi appearedpublically in 2014.
Turkey’s escalation of attacks on U.S. partner forces in northernSyria and northwest Iraq threaten anti-ISIS operations. Turkish President RecepTayyip Erdogan statedhe would launch a new, Iraq phase of operation in Syria, Operation EuphratesShield on April 4. The Turkish Air Force conductedairstrikes on positions held by Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) affiliatesnear Sinjar in addition to Hasaka Province, eastern Syria on April 25. TheTurkish airstrikes also hit a Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) base nearSinjar, likely unintentionally. Turkey also pressured Iraq’s Prime MinisterHaidar al-Abadi to redirect Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) fromTel Afar, a primarily Turkmen town west of Mosul by threatening action shouldthe PMU seize Tel Afar. PM Abadi cut a deal with PMUelements to divert efforts from Tel Afar to villages southwest of Sinjar, nearthe Iraq-Syria border. PM Abadi’s decision reduced the threat of aTurkish-Iranian contest over Tel Afar that could have threatened the finalphase of the Mosul operation. Turkish incursions in northern Iraq strainrelations between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government and alsodetract from the Mosul campaign’s final phase.
