Toplines
US delegations met separately with a Ukrainian-European delegation and a Russian delegation in Miami on December 19 and 20, respectively. US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and former Senior Advisor to the US President Jared Kushner met with Ukrainian Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov and Ukrainian Chief of the General Staff Major General Andriy Hnatov on December 19, and Umerov stated that European representatives also joined the talks at the invitation of the United States.[1] Axios correspondent Barak Ravid reported on December 19 that two unspecified sources stated that national security advisors from Germany, France, and the UK joined the US-Ukrainian talks on December 19.[2] Ravid stated that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani joined the December 19 talks. Lead Russian negotiator and Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev arrived in Miami on December 20 to meet with Witkoff and Kushner.[3] Reuters reported that a Russian source stated that there would not be a meeting between Dmitriev and the Ukrainian delegation.[4]
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated that both Russia and Ukraine must make compromises to end the war after Russian President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed his unwavering commitment to his full war aims on December 19. Rubio noted on December 19 that Ukrainian-Russian negotiations to end the war will require that both sides “give something” and that the United States is trying to figure out “what both sides are prepared to give.”[5] Putin used his December 19 Direct Line televised press conference to outline his demands for a future peace settlement — the same demands with which he launched the full-scale invasion in February 2022.[6] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in contrast, reiterated on December 20 his readiness to hold presidential elections in Ukraine as a step toward ending Russia’s war. Zelensky stated that he is ready to hold elections in Ukraine if conditions are in place for Ukrainian authorities to ensure “proper, decent, and democratic elections.”[7] Zelensky stated that the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) is working to prepare and ensure the necessary infrastructure to hold elections abroad, as the number of Ukrainian citizens living abroad has grown.[8] Zelensky noted that the Ukrainian military must be able to participate in the elections and that there must be international observers and a ceasefire, even if a temporary one, to hold elections. Russia’s unwillingness to engage in good-faith negotiations and compromise from its demands for Ukraine’s full capitulation continues to demonstrate the need for robust security guarantees to ensure that any future agreement produces a sustainable peace and prevent renewed Russian aggression. The Kremlin has repeatedly rejected such security guarantees, however.[9]
Ukrainian forces struck Russian military and oil assets overnight on December 19 to 20. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported that SBU forces struck two Russian Su-27 fighter jets at the Belbek Airbase near occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, overnight.[10] The SBU reported that one of the aircraft was carrying ammunition and taxiing for a combat mission at the time of the strike, which destroyed the aircraft. The SBU published geolocated footage showing Ukrainian drones hitting the Su-27s.[11] Ukrainian forces struck long-range radar systems, air defense systems, and a MiG-31 interceptor aircraft at the Belbek Airbase overnight on December 17 to 18.[12] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian RSP-6M2 radar system overnight on December 19 to 20, which Russian forces used to assist aircraft landing in poor visibility, near occupied Krasnosilske, Crimea.[13] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that several Ukrainian drones also struck a Project 22460 Okhotnik-class patrol boat patrolling near an oil and gas field and a drilling rig in the Filanovsky oil field in the Caspian Sea and that Ukraine is conducting a battle damage assessment.[14] A Ukrainian open-source intelligence (OSINT) project assessed that Ukrainian forces used FP-2 long range unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and likely struck the Rasul Gamzatov patrol boat.[15] Ukrainian forces have struck oil infrastructure at the Filanovsky oil field three times since December 10.[16]
Three drones — at least two of which are reportedly Russian drone models — have entered Turkish airspace or crashed into Turkey since December 15. The Turkish Ministry of National Defense reported on December 15 that Turkish and NATO forces shot down a drone approaching Turkish airspace from the Black Sea.[17] Turkish authorities did not specify the type or origin of the drone. The Turkish Interior Ministry reported on December 19 that Turkish authorities found a downed Russian Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone near Izmit in northwestern Turkey.[18] Turkish outlets reported on December 20 that a third drone crashed in Balıkesir Province in northwestern Turkey, possibly on an earlier date, and that there were no identifying markings on the drone.[19] A Russian milblogger claimed that the third drone was a Russian Merlin-VR reconnaissance drone.[20] Turkish authorities have not directly attributed the incidents to Russia as of this writing. ISW continues to assess that Russia is intensifying its covert and overt attacks against Europe and that Russia has entered “Phase Zero” — the informational and psychological condition setting phase — to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.[21]
Key Takeaways
- US delegations met separately with a Ukrainian-European delegation and a Russian delegation in Miami on December 19 and 20, respectively.
- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated that both Russia and Ukraine must make compromises to end the war after Russian President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed his unwavering commitment to his full war aims on December 19.
- Ukrainian forces struck Russian military and oil assets overnight on December 19 to 20.
- Three drones — at least two of which are reportedly Russian drone models — have entered Turkish airspace or crashed into Turkey since December 15.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole.
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Ukrainian Operations in The Russian Federation
Ukrainian forces may have struck a Russian ammunition depot in Bryansk Oblast on the night of December 19 to 20. Russian opposition outlet Astra reported on December 20 that locals reported fires and audible explosions in Novozybkov, Bryansk Oblast.[22] Open-source analysts on X (formerly Twitter) geolocated the footage and assessed that the explosions may have occurred at an ammunition depot in the area.[23]
Russian Supporting Effort: Northern Axis
Russian objective: Create defensible buffer zones in northern Ukraine along the international border
Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on December 20 but did not make confirmed advances.
Unconfirmed claims: Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed on December 20 that Russian forces seized Vysoke (southeast of Sumy City along the international border).[24] Russian milbloggers credited elements of the Russian 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade (49th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) with seizing the settlement.[25] One Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also seized Hrabovske (immediately south of Vysoke).[26] ISW has not observed reports of activity in this sector of the border since fighting in late Summer 2025 near Demidovka, Belgorod Oblast (northwest of Vysoke).[27] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger noted that the extent of the renewed Russian activity in this area is still unclear.[28]
Russian forces attacked in Kursk and Sumy oblasts, including north of Sumy City near Andriivka, Kindrativka, and Varachyne and southeast of Sumy City near Vysoke, on December 19 and 20.[29] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Oleksiivka.[30]
A Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed that elements of the Russian 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment (Territorial Control) (Russian Aerospace Forces [VKS] and reportedly under the operational control of the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces) operating near Bezsalivka (northwest of Sumy City) are suffering heavy losses after the commander sent Russian forces to occupy a windbreak that the commander falsely reported was clear of Ukrainian forces.[31] The milblogger claimed that Russian forces in the area are unable to conduct timely evacuations and have not rotated for months.[32]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 137th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (106th VDV Division) and Anvar Spetsnaz Detachment (possibly referring to the BARS-25 Anvar volunteer detachment) are reportedly operating in the Sumy direction.[33]
Russian Main Effort: Eastern Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1
Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City.
Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on December 20 but did not advance.
Russian forces attacked northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Prylipka, Lyman, Vilcha, and Starytsya and toward Izbytske on December 19 and 20.[34]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade (58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in the Kharkiv direction.[35]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velykyi Burluk direction on December 20 but did not advance.
Russian forces attacked northeast of Velykyi Burluk near Milove and toward Khatnie and east of Velykyi Burluk toward Hryhorivka on December 20.[36]
A Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed on December 20 that elements of the Russian 79th Motorized Rifle Regiment (18th Motorized Rifle Division, 11th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]), which are operating near Dvorichanske (southeast of Velykyi Burluk), are having problems similar to those of the 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment (11th AC) with new recruits that are seriously ill or wounded.[37] The milblogger claimed that the command of the 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment responded to a large number of casualties from Ukrainian drone drops by ordering the regiment, including the seriously ill and wounded, to undergo more physical training in order to be able to move more quickly on the battlefield.
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2
Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kupyansk.
Assessed Ukrainian advance: Geolocated footage published on December 20 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced along the P-79 Kupyansk-Chuhuiv highway in central Kupyansk.[38]
Russian forces attacked near Kupyansk itself, east of Kupyansk toward Petropavlivka, southeast of Kupyansk near Stepova Novoselivka and Pishchane, and south of Kupyansk near Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi on December 19 and 20.[39] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked from Sobolivka (west of Kupyansk) and Myrove (northwest of Kupyansk), within Kupyansk, and near Stepova Novoselivka.[40]
Order of Battle: Drone operators and assault elements of the Russian 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) reportedly continue to operate in Kupyansk.[41] Elements of the 352nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (11th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly operating in the Kupyansk direction.[42]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on December 20 but did not advance.
Russian forces attacked north of Borova near Novoplatonivka, northeast of Borova near Bohuslavka and toward Nova Kruhlyakivka, and southeast of Borova near Druzhelyubivka on December 19 and 20.[43] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Kolisnykivka (northeast of Borova).[44]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Slovyansk-Lyman direction on December 20 but did not advance.
Russian forces attacked near Lyman itself; northwest of Lyman near Shandryholove, Serednie, Yarova, and toward Drobysheve and Korovii Yar; north of Lyman near Stavky and toward Novyi Mir, northeast of Lyman near Kolodyazi, and east of Lyman near Zarichne on December 19 and 20.[45]
Slovyansk Military Administration Head Vadym Lyakh reported on December 20 that a Russian first-person view (FPV) drone struck a civilian vehicle on the outskirts of Slovyansk, killing one civilian.[46] Izyum Military Administration Head Serhiy Fedchenko stated that Russian forces launched glide bombs at Izyum, damaging a home and another residential building.[47]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 169th Motorized Rifle Brigade (25th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]) are reportedly operating near Yampil (east of Lyman).[48]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3
Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Siversk direction on December 20 but did not make confirmed advances.
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Kuzmynivka (south of Siversk) and Bondarne and to the eastern outskirts of Khromivka (both southwest of Siversk).[49]
Russian forces attacked near Siversk itself; northwest of Siversk near Dronivka and Platonivka; northeast of Siversk near Serebryanka; southeast of Siversk near Vyimka; and southwest of Siversk near Vasyukivka on December 19 and 20.[50]
The Ukrainian 7th Army Corps reported on December 20 that Russian forces are using the Serebryanske forest area to accumulate manpower, establish forward positions for drone operators, and conduct assaults toward Serebryanka and Dronivka.[51] ISW has previously assessed that Russian fiber optic drone innovations solved issues with foliage blocking radio signals of regular drones, allowing Russian forces to eventually consolidate within and use the Serebryanske forest area more actively.[52] The 7th Army Corps reported that Ukrainian forces still hold positions in Dronivka and are repelling Russian attempts to infiltrate into Dronivka.[53] The corps reported that Russian forces primarily operate in small groups camouflaged with ghillie suits and thermal cloaks to identify weak points in Ukrainian positions. The corps noted that the key Russian objective in the area is to infiltrate Zakitne (northwest of Siversk) and consolidate on the dominant heights. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Siversk direction reported on December 19 that Russian drone operators established positions in multi-story buildings within Siversk, allowing Russian forces to exercise fire control over Siversk and disrupt Ukrainian logistics and defensive lines in the area.[54]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area on December 20 but did not make confirmed advances.
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces seized the Kostyantynivka railway station in southern Kostyantynivka.[55]
Russian forces attacked in and near Kostyantynivka itself; east of Kostyantynivka near Stupochky and Predtechyne; southeast of Kostyantynivka near Pleshchiivka, Kleban-Byk, Oleksandro-Shultyne, and Ivanopillya; southwest of Kostyantynivka near Yablunivka; south of Druzhkivka near Rusyn Yar; and southwest of Druzhkivka toward Sofiivka and Novopavlivka on December 19 and 20.[56]
The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kostyantynivka direction reported on December 20 that Russian forces changed tactics from assaulting in teams of three to five personnel to sending single infantrymen on assaults.[57] The spokesperson reported that Russian forces are moving and attacking during snow, rain, and fog to avoid detection while reconnoitering Ukrainian positions for strikes.
Ukraine’s State Emergency Service published geolocated footage on December 19 showing Russian drone operators conducting a double tap strike targeting Ukrainian firefighters putting out a gas station fire from a prior Russian strike in Druzhkivka.[58]
Order of Battle: Drone operators and other elements of the Russian Chechen 78th Sever-Akhmat Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) and 1194th Motorized Rifle Regiment (4th Motorized Rifle Brigade, 3rd CAA, formerly 2nd Luhansk People’s Republic Army Corps [LNR AC], SMD) are reportedly operating near Kostyantynivka.[59] Drone operators of the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA, SMD) are striking Ukrainian positions near Berestok (south of Kostyantynivka) and Kleban-Byk.[60] First-person view (FPV) drone operators of the 58th Separate Spetsnaz Battalion (unofficially designated the Okhotnik [Hunter] Spetsnaz Detachment) (51st CAA, formerly 1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] AC, SMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in the Kostyantynivka direction.[61] Drone operators of the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (20th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces near Rusyn Yar.[62]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Dobropillya tactical area on December 20 but did not make confirmed advances.
Unconfirmed claims: A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Nove Shakhove (east of Dobropillya) and in Boykivka, Zapovidne, and Dorozhnie (all southeast of Dobropillya).[63]
Russian forces attacked east of Dobropillya near Shakhove and Nove Shakhove on December 19 and 20.[64]
A Russian milblogger claimed on December 20 that Russian forces seized a section of the road to Zolotyi Kolodyaz (northeast of Dobropillya) near Nove Shakhove.[65]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (20th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA) and the 174th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA) are reportedly operating in the Dobropillya direction.[66]
Ukrainian forces recently advanced or maintained positions in the Pokrovsk direction.
Assessed Russian infiltrations: Geolocated footage published on December 20 shows two Russian servicemembers raising a Russian flag in southwestern Svitle (northeast of Pokrovsk).[67] Additional geolocated footage published on December 20 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian servicemembers along the Donetska railway south of Hryshyne (northwest of Pokrovsk).[68] ISW assesses that these were Russian infiltration missions that did not change the control of terrain or forward edge of the battle area (FEBA) at this time.
Unconfirmed claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces seized Svitle.[69] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in northern Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk).[70] One Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces seized Myrnohrad.[71] Other Russian milbloggers criticized the claim of the seizure of Myrnohrad as premature, stating that Russian forces have only seized half of the town and that Ukrainian forces maintain a presence in the northern part.[72]
Refinement of area under Russian claims: Geolocated footage published on December 20 shows Russian forces conducting multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS) strikes against a Ukrainian-occupied building in northern Myrnohrad — an area where Russian sources previously claimed Russian forces maintained a presence.[73]
Russian forces attacked near and within Pokrovsk itself; north of Pokrovsk near Rodynske; northeast of Pokrovsk near Svitle; east of Pokrovsk near Myrnohrad; southwest of Pokrovsk near Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetske, and Novopidhorodne; and northwest of Pokrovsk near Hryshyne on December 19 and 20.[74] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked northwest of Pokrovsk and near Myrnohrad and Hryshyne.[75]
The deputy commander of a Ukrainian battalion operating in the Pokrovsk direction stated that small Russian groups are conducting assaults and infiltration missions daily.[76] The commander stated that Russian forces shift to striking Ukrainian firing points and drone pilot positions if assaults are unsuccessful. The commander noted that Russian strikes against drone pilot positions that destroy equipment cause problems because Ukrainian forces cannot store spare equipment at the position. The commander stated that Russian guided glide bomb strikes are accurate but that Russian forces do not conduct these strikes often.
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 506th Motorized Rifle Regiment (27th Motorized Rifle Division, 2nd CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) and 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd CAA) are reportedly operating north of Pokrovsk.[77] First-person view (FPV) drone operators of the 238th Artillery Brigade (8th CAA) are reportedly striking Ukrainian unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) near Myrnohrad.[78] Drone operators of the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk direction.[79] Buk-M2 crews of the 297th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (2nd CAA) are reportedly downing Ukrainian High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) rockets in the Pokrovsk direction.[80]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Novopavlivka direction on December 20 but did not advance.
Russian forces attacked near Novopavlivka itself; northeast of Pokrovsk near Novoserhiivka; and south of Novopavlivka near Filiya and Dachne on December 19 and 20.[81]
Order of Battle: FPV drone operators of the Russian 90th Tank Division (41st CAA, CMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in Novopavlivka.[82]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction on December 20 but did not advance.
Russian forces attacked east of Oleksandrivka near Piddubne and toward Oleksandrohrad, southeast of Oleksandrivka near Sosnivka and Verbove, and south of Oleksandrivka near Vyshneve on December 19 and 20.[83]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army (Russian Aerospace Forces [VKS] and Eastern Military District [EMD]) are striking Ukrainian positions in Velykomykhailivka.[84]
Russian Supporting Effort: Southern Axis
Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions, secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes, and advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City
Russian forces recently advanced in the Hulyaipole direction.
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on December 19 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in central Dobropillya and Varvarivka (both north of Hulyaipole) and east of both settlements.[85]
Assessed Russian infiltrations: Geolocated footage published on December 19 shows Russian forces operating in central Hulyaipole during what ISW assesses was a Russian infiltration mission that did not change control of terrain or the forward edge of the battle area (FEBA).[86] Available video evidence shows a continued Ukrainian presence in central Hulyaipole.[87] The available evidence about the situation in central Hulyaipole suggests that the Russian and Ukrainian positions are intermixed in central Hulyaipole.
Refinement of area under Russian claims: Geolocated footage published on December 19 shows Ukrainian servicemembers capturing Russian personnel and operating in central and southern Dobropillya (north of Hulyaipole) and south of the settlement — areas where Russian sources previously claimed that Russian forces maintained a presence.[88]
Russian forces attacked near and within Hulyaipole itself; northwest of Hulyaipole near Ternuvate; and north of Hulyaipole near Zelene, Herasymivka, Andriivka, Varvarivka, Bratske, Kosivtseve, Zarichne, and Dobropillya on December 19 and 20.[89]
A Ukrainian brigade operating in the Hulyaipole direction published geolocated footage on December 19 showing Ukrainian forces repelling an at least reduced platoon-sized Russian mechanized assault in central Dobropillya.[90]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff’s Main Directorate [GRU]) are striking Ukrainian vehicles south of Dobropillya and reportedly striking Ukrainian forces near Pryluky (north of Hulyaipole).[91] Drone operators of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade (35th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Eastern Military District [EMD]) and the ZVENO Reconnaissance Battalion are reportedly operating in Zaporizhia Oblast.[92] Elements of the 3rd Assault Company of the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (5th CAA, EMD) are operating in central Hulyaipole.[93]
Ukrainian forces recently advanced or maintained positions in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized Stepnohirsk (west of Orikhiv) but that limited Ukrainian groups are still present in central Stepnohirsk.[94] One milblogger claimed that Russian forces have seized most but not all of the settlement.[95] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also advanced southwest of Lukyanivske (northwest of Orikhiv).[96]
Refinement of areas on Russian claims: Geolocated footage published on December 20 shows Russian forces striking a Ukrainian-occupied building in central Prymorske (west of Orikhiv) – an area where Russian sources previously claimed that Russian forces maintained a presence.[97]
Russian forces attacked northwest of Orikhiv toward Lukyanivske and west of Orikhiv near Shcherbaky, Plavni, Stepnohirsk, and Prymorske on December 19 and 20.[98]
A Russian milblogger claimed on December 20 that Russian forces conducted guided glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian forces in Orikhiv.[99] Another Russian milblogger claimed on December 20 that drone operators of the Russian BARS-Sarmat Unmanned Systems Special Purpose Center (formerly BARS-Sarmat Detachment, subordinated to Airborne [VDV] Forces) conducted a fiber-optic drone strike against an overpass and bridge on the M-18 Zaporizhzhia City-Melitopol highway near Hryhorivka (southeast of Zaporizhzhia City).[100] The Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted the strike from over 22 kilometers away.
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 328th VDV Regiment (104th VDV Division) are striking Ukrainian vehicles in eastern Mahdanyivka (northwest of Orikhiv).[101] Drone operators of the 108th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions and equipment near Prymorske.[102] Drone operators of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division (58th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly conducting reconnaissance near Orikhiv.[103] Drone operators and other elements of the 4th Military Base (58th CAA, SMD), 104th VDV Regiment (76th VDV Division), and 31st Separate VDV Brigade are reportedly operating in the Zaporizhia direction.[104]
Russian forces continued limited ground assaults in the Kherson direction on December 20 but did not advance.
Russian forces attacked east of Kherson City near the Antonivskyi Bridge on December 20.[105]
A Russian milblogger claimed on December 20 that the Russian 18th CAA (SMD) is forming a new separate drone battalion based in occupied Kherson Oblast.[106] The milblogger claimed that the Russian military command is reforming the administrative management of drone units to subordinate drone operators and specialists to the same command structures to improve quality and efficiency.
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the 98th VDV Division are reportedly striking Ukrainian drone launch sites in the Kherson direction.[107]
Russian forces in occupied Crimea are reportedly preparing for a possible fuel shortage, likely due to Ukrainian strikes against Russian energy infrastructure. The “Atesh” Crimea-based Ukrainian partisan group reported on December 20 that elements of the Russian 8th Artillery Regiment (22nd Army Corps [AC], Black Sea Fleet), which have been striking civilian infrastructure and civilians in Kherson City, are concentrating fuel tankers at its base in occupied Simferopol, Crimea, in anticipation of a severe fuel shortage.[108]
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the front line
Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine overnight on December 19 and 20. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched three Iskander-M ballistic missiles from occupied Crimea and 51 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones — of which about 30 were Shahed-type drones — from the directions of Oryol and Kursk cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast.[109] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 31 drones in northern, eastern, and southern Ukraine as of 0900 local time and that an unspecified number of ballistic missiles and 20 drones struck 15 locations in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck civilian, energy, and port infrastructure in Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts, killing at least eight civilians and injuring at least 25 in Odesa Oblast.[110] The Ukrainian Energy Ministry reported that Russian forces struck electricity generation, distribution, and transmission facilities in Mykolaiv, Kherson, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, causing power outages, and targeted thermal power plants in unspecified areas near the Russian-Ukrainian border.[111] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that Russian forces are intensifying their strike campaigns against bridges and port logistics in Odesa Oblast in order to sow chaos and cause fuel, food, and medicine shortages.[112]
Significant Activity in Belarus
Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks
Nothing Significant To Report.
Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.
[1] https://t.me/umerov_mo/700; https://t.me/umerov_mo/701
[2] https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/2002019268360073255
[3] https://t.me/tass_agency/353878
[4] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-russian-officials-meet-florida-more-ukraine-talks-2025-12-20/
[5] https://www.state.gov/releases/2025/12/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-remarks-to-the-press-6/
[6] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-19-2025/
[7] https://suspilne dot media/1194046-zelenskij-zaaviv-so-ne-trimaetsa-za-prezidentske-krislo-ta-ne-dozvolit-putinu-vplivati-na-vibori/; https://www.pap dot pl/ua/ukrainian/news/zelenskiy-v-intervyu-dlya-pap-kredit-es-nadae-ukraini-novi-mozhlivosti
[8] https://suspilne dot media/1194326-zelenskij-mzs-pracue-nad-stvorennam-infrastrukturi-dla-provedenna-viboriv/
[9] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-18-2025/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-17-2025/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-16-2025/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-14-2025/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-11-2025/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-10-2025/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-21-2025/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-17-2025/
[10] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/12/20/udar-na-70-mln-urazheno-dva-rosijski-litaky-su-27-na-krymskomu-aerodromi-belbek/; https://t.me/SBUkr/16448; https://www.facebook.com/SecurSerUkraine/posts/1234721215421453?ref=embed_post; https://suspilne dot media/crimea/1194168-sbu-povidomila-pro-urazenna-dvoh-rosijskih-litakiv-su-27-na-aerodromi-belbek-u-krimu/
[11] https://x.com/moklasen/status/2002312410070233404; https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2002306368535941132; https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2002311087463497732; https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2002306368535941132` [12] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-18-2025/ [13] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32783; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/12/20/kaspijske-more-stalo-dlya-rosiyan-chornym-urazheni-vorozhyj-korabel-ta-burova-platforma/; https://suspilne dot media/1194066-sili-oboroni-ukraini-urazili-vijskovij-korabel-rf-ta-burovu-platformu-na-naftogazovomu-rodovisi-v-kaspijskomu-mori/ [14] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32783 [15] https://t.me/kiber_boroshno/12403 [16] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-13-2025/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-11-2025/ [17] https://x.com/tcsavunma/status/2000625505108734242?s=20; https://meduza dot io/news/2025/12/15/voennye-turtsii-sbili-nad-chernym-morem-bespilotnik-kotoryy-poteryal-kontrol [18] https://x.com/TC_icisleri/status/2002031377559240722 [19] https://meduza dot io/news/2025/12/20/v-turtsii-upal-tretiy-za-nedelyu-bespilotnik; https://en.haberler dot com/after-kocaeli-now-it-s-balikesir-a-drone-has-2182760/; https://www.kyivpost dot com/post/66665 [20] https://t.me/infomil_live/25244; https://militarnyi dot com/uk/news/rosijskyj-rozviduvalnyj-dron-merlyn-vr-vpav-u-turechchyni-nepodalik-kordonu-z-gretsiyeyu/ [21] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-29-2025/ ; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-22-2025/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-12-2025/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-10-2025/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-9-2025/ ; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-5-2025/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-27-2025/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-24-2025/ [22] https://t.me/astrapress/100013 [23] https://x.com/neonhandrail/status/2002179902347329541; https://x.com/neonhandrail/status/2002180532642197825; https://x.com/neonhandrail/status/2002182695875465414 ; https://x.com/Exilenova_plus/status/2002154301721026634 [24] https://t.me/mod_russia/59608; https://t.me/mod_russia/59610; https://t.me/warriorofnorth/14181; https://t.me/dva_majors/85362; https://t.me/yurasumy/26146; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/106007 [25] https://t.me/rybar/76135 ; https://t.me/warriorofnorth/14181; https://t.me/dva_majors/85362; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/106007 [26] https://t.me/yurasumy/26146 [27] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-9-2025/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-22-2025/ [28] https://t.me/rybar/76135 [29] https://t.me/dva_majors/85346; https://t.me/severnnyi/6080; https://t.me/wargonzo/31208; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32808; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32780; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32768; https://t.me/mod_russia/59608; https://t.me/mod_russia/59610; https://t.me/warriorofnorth/14181; https://t.me/dva_majors/85362; https://t.me/yurasumy/26146; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/106007 [30] https://t.me/dva_majors/85346; https://t.me/severnnyi/6080 [31] https://t.me/severnnyi/6083 [32] https://t.me/severnnyi/6081; https://t.me/severnnyi/6083 [33] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/37607 [34] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32808 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32780 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32768 ; https://t.me/Joint_Forces_Task_Force/19826 ; https://t.me/Joint_Forces_Task_Force/19824 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/31208 ; https://t.me/severnnyi/6080 [35] https://t.me/Otryad_vetra/732 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/85390 [36] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32808 ; https://t.me/severnnyi/6080 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/85346; https://t.me/Joint_Forces_Task_Force/19826 [37] https://t.me/severnnyi/6085 [38] https://x.com/RoadtoMars9/status/2002404487143829813; https://t.me/rashepilo/982 [39] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32808; https://t.me/Joint_Forces_Task_Force/19826; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32768; https://t.me/Joint_Forces_Task_Force/19824; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32780; https://t.me/wargonzo/31208; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/37613; https://t.me/rybar/76112; https://t.me/motopatriot78/46347; https://t.me/severnnyi/6080 [40] https://t.me/severnnyi/6080; https://t.me/rybar/76112; https://t.me/wargonzo/31208 [41] https://t.me/motopatriot78/46347; https://t.me/mod_russia/59599 [42] https://t.me/motopatriot78/46376; https://t.me/motopatriot78/46382
[43] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32808; https://t.me/Joint_Forces_Task_Force/19826; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32780; https://t.me/Joint_Forces_Task_Force/19824; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32768; https://t.me/wargonzo/31208
[44] https://t.me/rybar/76112
[45] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32808; https://t.me/Joint_Forces_Task_Force/19826; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32768; https://t.me/Joint_Forces_Task_Force/19824; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32780; https://t.me/wargonzo/31208; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/37613
[46] https://suspilne dot media/donbas/1194070-armia-rf-uveceri-19-grudna-obstrilala-slovansk-zaginula-ludina/
[47] https://suspilne dot media/1194000-rf-vdarila-balistikou-po-odesini-zustric-u-ssa-sodo-mirnogo-planu-zaversilas-1396-den-vijni/?anchor=live_1766247014&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps
[48] https://t.me/motopatriot78/46376; https://t.me/motopatriot78/46382
[49] https://t.me/motopatriot78/46386
[50]https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32808; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32780; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32768
[51] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/12/20/vorog-namagayetsya-forsuvaty-siverskyj-donecz-7-j-korpus-pro-boyi-na-siverskomu-napryamku/; https://t.me/corps7DSHV/925
[52] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-25-2025/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-drone-innovations-are-likely-achieving-effects-of-battlefield-air-interdiction-in-ukraine/
[53] https://t.me/corps7DSHV/925
[54] https://suspilne dot media/donbas/1193924-protivnik-zaliz-v-pati-poverhovi-budinki-vistaviv-tam-tocki-pilotiv-54-ombr-pro-situaciu-u-siversku/
[55] https://t.me/motopatriot78/46355
[56] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32768; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32808; https://t.me/wargonzo/31208; https://t.me/motopatriot78/46355
[57] https://suspilne dot media/donbas/1194128-vikoristovuut-kapsuli-smerti-rf-kidae-grupi-vidkrivaski-na-sturmi-u-rajoni-casovogo-aru/
[58] https://x.com/zarGEOINT/status/2002102358957031660; https://t.me/dsns_telegram/55191
[59] https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/6239
[60] https://x.com/AudaxonX/status/2002157765549056499; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/105978
[61] https://t.me/nm_dnr/14780
[62] https://t.me/nm_dnr/14777
[63] https://t.me/wargonzo/31208
[64] https://t.me/wargonzo/31208; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32768; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32780 https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32808
[65] https://t.me/wargonzo/31208
[66] https://t.me/dva_majors/85351; https://t.me/motopatriot78/46376
[67] https://t.me/mir_perezagruzka/11634; https://t.me/Osintpen/2254; https://x.com/richardzai38580/status/2002322532356313375; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/10822
[68] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/10824; https://www.instagram.com/reel/DSeU-S5mKmd
[69] https://t.me/mod_russia/59609; https://t.me/mod_russia/59610
[70] https://t.me/motopatriot78/46347; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/191218; https://t.me/z_arhiv/33017
[71] https://t.me/yurasumy/26129 ; https://t.me/yurasumy/26140
[72] https://t.me/dva_majors/85346; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/69538; https://t.me/motopatriot78/46385; https://t.me/wargonzo/31208
[73] https://x.com/ChaMapping/status/2002383522334703705; https://t.me/btr80/33957
[74] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32808; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32768 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32768; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/191290; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/69538; https://t.me/wargonzo/31208; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/37613; https://t.me/motopatriot78/46346
[75] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/191290; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/69538
[76] https://suspilne dot media/donbas/1194042-uskladnena-logistika-zastupnik-kombata-pro-situaciu-na-pokrovskomu-napramku/; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uu50wPIJ4ps
[77] https://t.me/motopatriot78/46347
[78] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/191313; https://t.me/nm_dnr/14778
[79] https://t.me/mod_russia/59599
[80] https://t.me/mod_russia/59607
[81] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32808; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32768; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32780
[82] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/106004
[83] https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/13477; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32768; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32808; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32780
[84] https://t.me/voin_dv/18105; https://x.com/richardzai38580/status/2002386266755920295
[85] https://t.me/assaultregiment33/2331; https://x.com/richardzai38580/status/2002264470404674000; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/10821; https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/32551; https://t.me/ombr_110/1774; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/10818 ; https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/2002068645694804462; https://x.com/richardzai38580/status/2002065551011819541; https://x.com/99Dominik_/status/2002116479073071426; https://x.com/klinger66/status/2002302183228755987
[86] https://x.com/richardzai38580/status/2002230032467701933; https://t.me/rus_shturm/1444; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/10819;
[87] https://x.com/richardzai38580/status/1999553718048756207; https://t.me/voin_dv/18017; https://x.com/richardzai38580/status/1999527832712593729; https://t.me/voin_dv/18022
[88] https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/32551; https://t.me/ombr_110/1774; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/10818; https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/2002068645694804462; https://x.com/richardzai38580/status/2002065551011819541; https://x.com/99Dominik_/status/2002116479073071426; https://x.com/klinger66/status/2002302183228755987; https://x.com/richardzai38580/status/2002115319129911691; https://t.me/voin_dv/18102
[89] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32780; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32808; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32768; https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/13477; https://t.me/dva_majors/85346; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/69540; https://t.me/wargonzo/31208; https://t.me/voin_dv/18101; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/37613; https://t.me/motopatriot78/46347
[90] https://t.me/WarArchive_ua/32551; https://t.me/ombr_110/1774; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/10818; https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/2002068645694804462; https://x.com/richardzai38580/status/2002065551011819541; https://x.com/99Dominik_/status/2002116479073071426; https://x.com/klinger66/status/2002302183228755987
[91] https://x.com/richardzai38580/status/2002115319129911691; https://t.me/voin_dv/18102; https://t.me/voin_dv/18108
[92] https://t.me/voin_dv/18109; https://t.me/sashakots/58544; https://t.me/epoddubny/25915
[93] https://x.com/richardzai38580/status/2002230032467701933; https://t.me/rus_shturm/1444; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/10819
[94] https://t.me/zovpobedy/16670; https://t.me/dva_majors/85365; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/191186
[95] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/105997
[96] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/105997; https://t.me/zovpobedy/16670 ;
[97] https://t.me/dva_majors/85370; https://x.com/ChaMapping/status/2002391342924902498
[98] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32808 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32780 ; https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/13477 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/85346 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/105997 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/31208 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/37613
[99] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/191226
[100] https://t.me/dva_majors/85349 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/85369
[101] https://x.com/richardzai38580/status/2001711151827288579; https://t.me/GORA_GROUP_BPLA/883; https://t.me/GORA_GROUP_BPLA/830
[102] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/37621
[103] https://t.me/dva_majors/85392
[104] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/37607 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/31226 ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/191195
[105] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32808
[106] https://t.me/osvedomitell_alex/31506
[107] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/37607
[108] https://t.me/atesh_ua/8920; https://suspilne dot media/crimea/1194082-pricetnij-do-obstriliv-hersonsini-ruh-ates-povidomiv-pro-viavlenna-dislokacii-simferopolskogo-8-go-artpolku-zs-rf/
[109] https://t.me/kpszsu/50240
[110] https://t.me/mykolaivskaODA/17375; https://t.me/mk_energy_ua/15642; https://suspilne dot media/mykolaiv/1194040-armia-rf-masovano-atakuvala-kriticnu-infrastrukturu-mikolaivsini-e-znestrumlenna-u-troh-rajonah/; https://suspilne dot media/mykolaiv/1194152-u-mikolaevi-rozgortaut-punkti-nezlamnosti-pisla-ataki-rf-po-energetici-aka-situacia-u-misti/; https://t.me/senkevichonline/15433; https://t.me/dsns_mykolaiv/15998; https://t.me/odeskaODA/13014 ; https://suspilne dot media/odesa/1193972-rf-udarila-raketami-po-portovij-infrastrukturi-na-odesini-zaginuli-7-ludej-e-poraneni/; https://suspilne dot media/odesa/1194194-rf-atakuvala-port-v-odesi-zafiksovano-vlucanna-v-rezervuari-kuleba/; https://t.me/OleksiiKuleba/7732; https://suspilne dot media/odesa/1194218-v-odesi-zrosla-kilkist-postrazdalih-unaslidok-nicnogo-udaru-po-portovij-infrastrukturi/; https://t.me/odeskaODA/13029; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2025/12/20/vorog-urazyv-avtobus-ta-portovu-infrastrukturu-na-odeshhyni-vosmero-lyudej-zagynuly/; https://t.me/dsns_telegram/55239; https://suspilne dot media/odesa/1194090-rf-masovano-atakuvala-raketami-odeskij-rajon-zaginuli-7-ludej-27-poranenih/; https://meduza dot io/news/2025/12/20/rossiyskie-voyska-nanesli-raketnyy-udar-po-portu-odessy-est-pogibshie-desyatki-ranenyh
[111] https://t.me/energyofukraine/5662; https://suspilne dot media/1194116-u-nic-na-20-grudna-rosia-atakuvala-energoobekti-ukraini-znestrumleni-spozivaci-u-cotiroh-oblastah-minenergo/
[112] https://suspilne dot media/1194000-rf-vdarila-balistikou-po-odesini-zustric-u-ssa-sodo-mirnogo-planu-zaversilas-1396-den-vijni/?anchor=live_1766252663&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps
