Russian Main Effort: Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast

Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border to create a defensible buffer zone with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on March 12 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchanski Khutory, Prylipka, and Symynivka, and toward Zybyne and Vesele on March 11 and 12.[26] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked south of Hrafske.[27]

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on March 12 that Ukrainian forces have effectively halted the advance of Russian forces in northern Kharkiv Oblast, although elements of the Russian 44th Army Corps (AC, Leningrad Military District [LMD]) and 6th Combined Arms Army (CAA, LMD) continue attempts to advance south along the east (left) bank of the Siverskyi Donets River toward Hrafske (southwest of Vovchansk) and Symynivka (south of Vovchansk).[28] Mashovets added that Ukrainian counterattacks near Prylipka (west of Vovchansk and north of Hrafske) have left Russian forces with a narrow corridor to resupply Russian forces attempting to attack toward Hrafske and Symynivka, but that Ukrainian forces exercise fire control over this corridor. Mashovets noted that Ukrainian forces continue to maintain positions on the southeastern outskirts of Vovchansk, hindering a Russian advance southeast from Vovchansk toward Bilyi Kolodyaz (northeast of Kharkiv City).

Order of Battle: Assault elements of the 3rd Battalion of the Russian 128th Motorized Rifle Brigade (44th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) continue to operate in the Vovchansk direction.[29] First-person view (FPV) drone operators and other elements of the 11th Tank Regiment (18th Motorized Rifle Division, 11th AC, LMD), the 1431st Motorized Rifle Regiment (11th AC), and the Chechen Okhotnik [Hunter] Akhmat Spetsnaz Detachment (204th Akhmat Spetsnaz Regiment) reportedly continue to operate in the Kharkiv direction.[30]

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported ground activity in the Velykyi Burluk direction on March 12.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Oskil River

Russian objective: Cross the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction.

Assessed Ukrainian advances: Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on March 12 that Ukrainian forces maintain control over Kurylivka (southeast of Kupyansk).[31]

Assessed Russian infiltrations: Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on March 12 that Russian forces infiltrated in northeastern and eastern Kupyansk, and toward eastern Kivsharivka (southeast of Kupyansk).[32] Mashovets’ report indicates that Russian forces likely infiltrated toward Novoosynove (southeast of Kupyansk). ISW assesses that these events do not indicate a change in the control of terrain or the forward edge of the battle area (FEBA).

Russian forces attacked toward Kupyansk itself and southeast of Kupyansk toward Podoly and Hlushkivka on March 11 and 12.[33]

Mashovets reported on March 12 that Russian efforts to advance east and northeast of Kupyansk have been unsuccessful despite the Russian Western Grouping of Forces’ redirection of its main efforts to the area of responsibility (AoR) of the Russian 47th Tank Division (1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) east of Kupyansk.[34]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 47th Tank Division, including its 153rd Tank Regiment and 245th and 272nd motorized rifle regiments, are operating east of Kupyansk.[35] Elements of the 68th Motorized Rifle Division (6th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]), including its 121st and 122nd motorized rifle regiments, and the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st GTA are operating near Kupyansk.[36] Drone operators of the 7th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the 47th Tank Division are striking Ukrainian forces in northern Kivsharivka.[37]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on March 12 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked north of Borova near Novoplatonivka and southeast of Borova near Cherneshchyna on March 11 and 12.[38]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 423rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (4th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) are reportedly operating in the Borova direction.[39]

Ukrainian forces continued their mid- and long-range strike campaigns against Russian military targets in occupied Luhansk Oblast on the night of March 11 to 12. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 12 that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian S-300V anti-aircraft missile system launcher near occupied Borovenky (roughly 45 kilometers from the front line), a material and technical equipment warehouse and an ammunition depot near occupied Dubivskyi (roughly 110 kilometers from the front line), and a train with fuel and lubricants near occupied Dovzhansk (roughly 145 kilometers from the front line) on the night of March 11 to 12.[40] Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) Commander Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi reported that Ukrainian forces conducted the three strikes with Ukrainian-made FP-2 drones.[41] Geolocated footage published on March 12 shows fires in all three locations after Ukrainian strikes.[42] Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik acknowledged that the Ukrainian forces struck a freight train carrying fuel and posted images that show a damaged train and fire.[43]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast

Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Slovyansk direction on March 12 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near Lyman itself; northwest of Lyman near Drobysheve; north of Lyman toward Stavky; north of Slovyansk near Svyatohirsk; northeast of Slovyansk near Dronivka; east of Slovyansk near Kalenyky, Rai-Oleksandrivka, Riznykivka, Kryva Luka, and Zakitne; and southeast of Slovyansk near Fedorivka, Fedorivka Druha, and Nykyforivka on March 11 and 12.[44] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Lyman.[45]

A Ukrainian non-commissioned officer (NCO) operating in the Lyman direction reported that the Starlink outage is forcing Russian forces to control unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) with infantry-operated remote controls rather than networked systems, creating operational inefficiencies.[46] The commander stated that Russian forces are fielding fixed-wing reconnaissance drones instead of heavy bomber drones, whose production Russian forces have not yet scaled up. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Slovyansk direction reported that Russian forces previously used UGVs for logistics prior to the Starlink outage, but are now relying on Mavic first-person view (FPV) drones to drop supplies to forward positions.[47] The spokesperson reported that Russian efforts to sustain logistics through drone drops are largely unsuccessful due to Ukrainian air defenses intercepting many of these drones, with about 90 percent of the supply drops failing to reach their intended recipients.

An NCO of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Slovyansk direction reported that Russian forces are likely preparing to intensify assaults in the Lyman direction in the spring.[48] The NCO stated that Russian forces are currently intensifying attacks against Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) while Ukrainian forces are identifying and striking Russian drone operator positions. The NCO reported that Russian forces are emphasizing drone use and likely aim to establish fire control over settlements that would enable advances toward the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

Order of Battle: Self-propelled artillery elements of the Russian 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 2nd Luhansk People’s Republic Army Corps [LNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) struck a reported Ukrainian command post southwest of Kryva Luka.[49] Elements of the 1st Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment (2nd Motorized Rifle Division, 1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) are reportedly operating near Novoselivka (northwest of Lyman).[50] Drone operators of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division (20th CAA, MMD) are reportedly operating in the Slovyansk direction.[51]

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on March 11 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced on the southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka.[52]

Assessed Russian infiltrations: Geolocated footage published on March 11 shows a Russian servicemember operating southeast of Kostyantynivka during what ISW assesses was a Russian infiltration mission that did not change control of terrain or the forward edge of the battle area (FEBA) at this time.[53]

Russian forces attacked near Kostyantynivka itself; northeast of Kostyantynivka near Minkivka; southeast of Kostyantynivka near Ivanopillya and Pleshchiivka; south of Kostyantynivka near Berestok; southwest of Kostyantynivka near Illinivka and Stepanivka; south of Druzhkivka near Rusyn Yar; and southwest of Druzhkivka near Sofiivka and toward Novopavlivka, Pavlivka, Torske, and Pryiut on March 11 and 12.[54] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Illinivka.[55]

Ukrainian 11th AC Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Dmytro Zaporozhets reported on March 12 that Russian forces are accumulating infantry, drone operators, and armored vehicles, including tanks, in parts of occupied Chasiv Yar (northeast of Kostyantynivka) in preparation for an anticipated spring offensive.[56] Zaporozhets noted that Russian forces have intensified airstrikes in the corps area of responsibility (AoR) from an average of three to five strikes daily as Russian forces have been able to better reconnoiter with clearer weather and lengthening daylight hours. Zaporozhets added that Ukrainian forces eliminate or suppress 100 to 150 Russian drones daily.

Order of Battle: FPV drone operators, artillery, and other elements of the Russian 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd AC, under operational control of the Southern Grouping of Forces), 1008th Motorized Rifle Regiment (6th Motorized Rifle Division, 3rd AC), and Chechen 78th Sever-Akhmat Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th CAA, SMD) are striking Ukrainian forces and armored vehicles in Kostyantynivka.[57] Drone operators of the Russian 27th Artillery Regiment (6th Motorized Rifle Division) are reportedly striking Ukrainian forces near Kostyantynivka.[58] FPV drone operators of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (20th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA, SMD) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Toretske (southwest of Kostyantynivka).[59]

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Dobropillya tactical area on March 12, but ISW has not collected any evidence to assess that Russian forces advanced.

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces attacked northeast of Dobropillya toward Kucheriv Yar; east of Dobropillya near Nove Shakhove and Vilne and toward Novyi Donbas; and southeast of Dobropillya near Ivanivka on March 11 and 12.[60]

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on March 12 that Russian forces have recently reduced their attacks toward Kucheriv Yar and in the Dorozhnie-Novyi Donbas and Nove Shakhove-Vilne directions to a minimum. [61]

Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 55th Naval Infantry Division (Pacific Fleet, newly formed from the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade) are reportedly operating in the Dobropillya tactical area.[62]

Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.

Assessed Russian advances: Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on March 12 that Russian forces seized Hryshyne (northwest of Pokrovsk) and the Pokrovska mine north of Udachne (southwest of Pokrovsk).[63]

Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced east of Hryshyne and northwest of Udachne.[64]

Refinement of area under Russian claims: Geolocated footage published on March 11 shows Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions south of Bilytske, an area where Russian sources previously claimed that Russian forces maintained a presence.[65]

Russian forces attacked northwest of Pokrovsk near Hryshyne and toward Shevchenko; north of Pokrovsk near Rodynske and Bilytske; northeast of Pokrovsk near Sukhetske; east of Pokrovsk near Myrnohrad and Svitle; west of Pokrovsk toward Novooleksandrivka and Serhiivka; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Kotlyne, Udachne, Novopidhorodne, and Molodetske on March 11 and 12.[66]

Casualties incurred in the Russian offensive for the Pokrovsk urban area have reportedly forced Russian forces to limit offensive operations. Mashovets reported on March 12 that the heavy losses in Russian 51st CAA (formerly 1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] AC, SMD) when fighting for Myrnohrad have forced the 51st CAA to reduce the intensity of its operations.[67] Mashovets stated that the 51st CAA is only attacking sporadically in the Rodynske-Shevchenko and Sukhetske-Bilytske directions. Mashovets reported that the 2nd CAA (CMD) is attempting to advance through Hyrshyne to Novooleksandrivka. Mashovets observed that a Russian push toward Dobropillya (northeast of Pokrovsk) would force Russian forces to divert resources from the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk direction and significantly reinforce the 51st and 2nd CAAs.[68]

A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed on March 11 that constant Ukrainian tactical drone strikes in the Pokrovsk direction are forcing Russian forces to sometimes maintain positions in basements for months without supplies or rotation.[69]

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA) and 57th Spetsnaz Company (8th CAA) are striking Ukrainian forces south of Bilytske.[70]

Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Novopavlivka near Muravka and Novomykolaivka on March 12 but did not advance.[71]

A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Novopavlivka itself.[72]

Russian forces continued offensive operations and Ukrainian forces continued counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka direction on March 12, but ISW has not observed evidence to change its control of terrain assessment.

Russian forces attacked southeast of Oleksandrivka near Ternove on March 11 and 12.[73] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking near Andriivka (southwest of Oleksandrivka), Novooleksandrivka, Vovche, and Sosnivka (all southeast of Oleksandrivka), and are conducting mechanized counterattacks north of Ivanivka (northeast of Oleksandrivka).[74]

The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Oleksandrivka direction reported that the February 1 Starlink blocking has significantly disorganized Russian command and control (C2) and FPV and reconnaissance drone operations, enabling successful Ukrainian counterattacks.[75] The spokesperson reported that Russian forces are attempting to restore communications using WiFi bridges that are less effective than Starlink. The spokesperson noted that Russian forces have to install an amplifier antenna every kilometer to make such a system effective and that the loss of one such antenna can disrupt the entire system.

A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are exploiting the dispersed nature of Russian positions in the Oleksandrivka direction to advance with infantry groups on foot or mounted on armored fighting vehicles (AFVs).[76] The milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces employ heavy drones to both strike Russian positions and resupply infantry groups.

Order of Battle: FPV drone operators of the Russian 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff’s Main Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly intercepting Ukrainian drones near Sosnivka and striking Ukrainian forces near Sosnivka and Kolomiitsi (east of Oleksandrivka).[77]

Ukrainian sources provided battle damage assessments (BDA) of recent Ukrainian mid-range strikes against Russian military targets in occupied Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 12 that a March 11 Ukrainian strike against a Russian field artillery depot near occupied Shyroka Balka (roughly 112 kilometers from the frontline) destroyed over 6,000 rounds of ammunition.[78] A Ukrainian open-source intelligence (OSINT) source reported on March 10 that satellite imagery taken on March 8 shows that Ukrainian cruise missile strikes against the occupied Donetsk City Airport (roughly 50 kilometers from the frontline) conducted on March 7 damaged or destroyed several hangars storing Russian strike drones, and a likely warhead depot nearby.[79] The OSINT source reported that Russian forces removed eight drone hangars after the strike and recently finished the construction of four concrete bunkers for drone storage near the airport, and assessed that these concrete bunkers will be harder to strike.