By George Barros and Mason Clark

Recentmedia reports about Russia withdrawing 10,000 troops from near Ukraine are inaccurate and primarily a result of misleadingWestern reporting, not a Russian misinformation campaign. Russia’sSouthern Military District (SMD) stated on December 25 that over 10,000personnel from unspecified SMD units finished exercises in Rostov, Kuban,Crimea, Astrakhan, Volgograd, Stavropol, “in the Republics of the NorthCaucasus,” Armenia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, and would redeploy totheir permanent garrisons on December 25.[1]  Kremlinmedia did not prominently cover the SMD announcement as it would if this were aRussian information campaign.

TheSMD statement did not frame this development as a de-escalation against Ukraine,and in fact, stressed the high readiness level of the SMD’s forces. Thestatement claims that the SMD units completed training, that the equipment theyused will be fully serviced and brought back into readiness before the end of2021 “for further operation according to the plan for the winter trainingperiod,” and states that SMD units will be assigned new tasks to maintain highcombat readiness to be able to respond to possible “emergency situations”during the New Year holidays.[2]

Westernmisreporting about these exercises likely began in a misleading Reuters headline. IndependentRussian news outlet Interfax accurately reported that 10,000 SMD troopsfinished exercises and returned “from the field” to their permanent bases.[3] Reutersinaccurately quoted Interfax’s report with the headline, “Morethan 10,000 Russian troops returning to bases after drills near Ukraine[emphasis added] -Interfax.”[4] Interfaxdid not characterize the 10,000 troops as exercising “near Ukraine,” did notcharacterize the SMD report as being a drawdown, and listed the locations wherethe exercises occurred across southern Russia and the Caucuses. Other Westernmedia outlets ran with Reuters’ characterization of the 10,000 troops withdrawingfrom “near Ukraine,” amplifying an inaccurate perception of Russia recentlyreducing its force posture near Ukraine.

Russialikely has not decreased its force posture around Ukraine. TheSMD statement did not address Russian units deployed in Yelnya, Kursk, andVoronezh and postured against Ukraine – the bulk of the publicly observedbuildup around Ukraine since October 2021. Russian units permanently stationedin Crimea, Rostov, and Kuban returning to their permanent garrisons are stillde facto postured against Ukraine. Motorized rifle and artillery elements ofthe North Caucasus-based Russian 58^th Combined Arms Army thatdeployed to Crimea could remain in Crimea despite this announcement.[5]    

Westernmedia and policymakers should scrutinize both Russian activities and howsecond-hand reports may miscontextualize them. TheKremlin benefits from Western misunderstanding of its activities. Westernreporters, analysts, and observers must scrutinize secondary and primaryreports of Russian activities to avoid inadvertently perpetuatingmisunderstandings about Russian actions.