September 5, 2020, 6:15 EDT

By George Barros

Security personnel wearing unmarked greenuniforms appeared in Minsk for the first time on September 5.The personnel are reportedlyBelarusian riot police (OMON) in new uniforms.[1] Thesepersonnel wear Russian-made Dozor body cameras – a model of cameras Russianpolice and interior forces as well as Belarusian OMON personnel use.[2] BelarusianOMON previously wore all black uniforms with identifying markings.[3] Itis unclear why Belarusian OMON would have changed their uniforms and removedidentifying markings. They could be setting conditions for the appearance ofRussian security personnel in similar unmarked uniforms.

Belarusian authorities did not try to dispersethe second consecutive Saturday Women’s march in Minsk on September 5.Approximately 10,000 women marched in Minsk and gathered on Independence Squareon September 5.[4] The personnel in unmarkedgreen uniforms and other Belarusian security forces deployed to IndependenceSquare likely to intimidate the protesters but did not disperse or detain them.[5] Securityforces had not detained any women protesters during the August 29 women’s marcheither.[6] Belarusiansecurity forces detained at least two journalists covering protests in Minsk onSeptember 5, however.[7] Belarusianwomen will likely continue to hold weekly Saturday marches.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenkocontinues to target student protests. The personnel inunmarked green uniforms detained student protesters in Minsk on September 5.[8]Belarusian security forces have been detaining student protesters in Minsk sinceSeptember 1.[9] Lukashenko will likelyintensify targeted detentions of student protests.

Women protesters confronted Belarusian securityforces. Women protesters surrounded unmarked policedetention vans and shouted at them on September 5.[10] ISWobserved that protesters began using swarm tactics against security forces toresist detentions on August 30.[11] Confrontationsbetween protesters and security forces may escalate further – a risk ISWforecasted.[12]

Belarusian protesters began displaying foreignflags prominently for the first time. Women’s marchparticipants displayed the flags of Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia,Germany, Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union,Spain, Italy, Sweden, Israel, Ireland, and Jamaica on September 5.[13] Theprominent display of foreign flags by protesters is a new phenomenon, but thered and white Belarusian flag continues to dominate the demonstrations.Lukashenko and the Kremlin will likely use the presence of foreign flags in theprotests in its information operation claiming that the protests are a Westerncolor revolution and hybrid war against Belarus.[14]

A factorysuffered an explosion in Zhlobin, Belarus.A fire caused an explosion at an art factory in Zhlobin on September 5.[15] Itis unclear whether the fire was accidental or arson. Regional Belarusianauthorities reported no casualties but have not provided information on thefire’s causes .[16] The Kremlin and/orLukashenko may use this or similar incidents to justify a Russian intervention to“restore order” in Belarus.[17] TheKremlin confirmed on August 27 the existence of a Russian law enforcementofficer reserve prepared to intervene in Belarus if the situation “gets out ofcontrol.”[18] Russian or Belarusianframing of this explosion as an act of terrorism would indicate an increased likelihoodof Russian intervention.

Opposition leader Svitlana Tikhanouskaya backed theNEXTA Telegram channel’s call for large protests on September 6.Tikhanouskaya released a video on September 5 calling on Belarusians toparticipate in the planned September 6 unity march.[19]NEXTA first directed Belarusians to hold this march in a September 3 post.[20] Protesterswill likely hold large protests near Independence Square and IndependenceAvenue in Minsk at 2:00 pm local time on September 6. Lukashenko militarizedhis response to the last large Sunday protest on August 30 with armoredvehicles and will likely do so again.[21]

ISWwill continue monitoring the situation and providing updates.