Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 13, 2024

June 13, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukraine signed bilateral ten-year security agreements with the United States and Japan on June 13 as other partner states reaffirmed their long-term support for Ukraine within the Group of 7 (G7) and Ramstein formats. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on June 13 that he signed bilateral ten-year security agreements with US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the sidelines of the ongoing G7 Summit. The US-Ukraine agreement provides for long-term cooperation in defense and security, economic recovery and reform, and the advancement of Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration. The Japan-Ukraine agreement provides for Japan's $4.5 billion contribution to Ukraine in 2024 and continued ten-year long support in security and defense, humanitarian aid, technical and financial cooperation, reconstruction efforts, and sanction measures against Russia.

Africa File, June 13, 2024: Houthi-Shabaab Weapons Deal; SFG Boost in Central Somalia

June 13, 2024 - ISW Press

Gulf of Aden. US intelligence claimed that the Houthis and al Shabaab have discussed a deal for the Houthis to provide weapons to al Shabaab. The two groups have indirect connections through regional illicit arms networks that would likely facilitate indirect talks. Direct talks would indicate that the groups are interested in exchanging higher-grade systems not typically exchanged in the Gulf of Aden smuggling network, such as surface-to-air missiles and attack drones.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, June 13, 2024

June 13, 2024 - ISW Press

The United States, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom published a joint bulletin detailing how the People’s Republic of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is recruiting current and former Western-trained fighter pilots and associated personnel to train its respective counterparts.

Iran Update, June 12, 2024

June 12, 2024 - ISW Press

Hamas issued new demands in the ceasefire negotiations with Israel on June 11. Hamas made the demands in response to the latest Israeli ceasefire proposal. The demands include determining timelines for a permanent ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12, 2024

June 12, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces may be conducting an effort aimed at degrading Russian air defenses, which, if successful, could enable Ukraine to more effectively leverage manned fixed-wing airpower in the long run.

Iran Update, June 11, 2024

June 11, 2024 - ISW Press

Hamas sent a formal response to the Israeli ceasefire proposal to international mediators on June 11. Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad expressed “readiness to positively” engage in a deal, emphasizing Hamas’ primary demand for a permanent ceasefire. Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh and Palestinian Islamic Jihad Secretary General Ziad al Nakhalah gave the response to the Qatari prime minister. Qatar and Egypt confirmed receipt of the Hamas response and said that they would review it and coordinate the next steps.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11, 2024

June 11, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukraine's Western allies continue to provide monetary and military assistance to Ukraine, including air defense systems. The Estonian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on June 11 that Estonia will provide an undisclosed number of Mistral man-portable short-range air defense systems and missiles to Ukraine as part of a new military assistance package. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced during the Ukrainian Recovery Conference in Berlin on June 11 that the European Union (EU) will transfer roughly 1.5 billion euros ($1.6 billion) worth of profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine in July, of which Ukraine will allocate 90 percent to defense spending and 10 percent to reconstruction.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10, 2024

June 10, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces conducted a strike against Russian air defense assets in occupied Crimea overnight on June 9 to 10, likely with ATACMS. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on June 10 that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian S-400 air defense battery near occupied Dzhankoi and two S-300 batteries near occupied Chornomorske and Yevpatoria.... ISW has not observed visual confirmation of the extent of damages from the Ukrainian strikes.

Iran Update, June 10, 2024

June 10, 2024 - ISW Press

The Iranian Guardian Council approved a pool of six candidates that included mostly hardliners for the upcoming 2024 presidential election. The six approved candidates include five hardliners and one reformist on June 9 for the upcoming presidential election. The Iranian regime likely approved the sole reformist candidate to feign political diversity and therefore increase voter participation.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 9, 2024

June 9, 2024 - ISW Press

The Biden Administration’s limited policy reversal permitting Ukraine to use US-provided weapons to strike Russian military targets within Russian territory has removed at maximum only 16 percent of Russia’s ground sanctuary – a small area along the Russian-Ukrainian international border. The US policy change, while a step in the right direction, is by itself inadequate and unable to disrupt Russian operations at scale. ISW assesses that the West maintains the ability to substantially disrupt Russian operations at scale by allowing Ukraine to use Western-provided weapons to strike Russia’s operational rear and deep rear areas in Russian territory.