Publications

Iran Update, March 11, 2025

March 11, 2025 - ISW Press

The Syrian interim government has taken initial steps to prosecute individuals who committed crimes during recent insurgent activity in western Syria between March 6 and 10. Interim government forces arrested five individuals on March 11 for committing extrajudicial killings. Syrian Interim President Ahmed al Shara acknowledged accusations that interim government-affiliated forces committed extrajudicial killings and promised that the interim government would hold those who “exceeded the powers of the state” accountable during a speech on March 9.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11, 2025

March 11, 2025 - ISW Press

The United States and Ukraine agreed on March 11 to an immediate 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine contingent on Russia's agreement, and the United States reportedly restarted intelligence sharing and military aid. US and Ukrainian representatives met in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on March 11 for bilateral talks and agreed to the ceasefire proposal, which the United States will soon propose to Russia. The US-Ukrainian joint statement emphasized that Russia's reciprocity to this ceasefire proposal is the key to achieving peace and noted that the ceasefire can be extended if all parties agree.

Iran Update, March 10, 2025

March 10, 2025 - ISW Press

Current Syrian interim government counterinsurgency operations are insufficient to defeat pro-Assad insurgent cells across Syria. I

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10, 2025

March 10, 2025 - ISW Press

Russia continues to publicly claim that it wants peace while offering no concessions of its own in sharp contrast with the concessions Ukraine has already offered. Russian officials continue to capitalize on the Trump administration's statements and actions in an attempt to divide the United States and Europe. 

Understanding Syria’s Emerging Insurgency

March 10, 2025 - ISW Press

The new Syrian interim government faces a nascent insurgency across the country. The most organized insurgents are Alawites in the coastal areas. These Alawites are likely supported by Hezbollah smuggling networks, given these networks’ overlapping activities around the Lebanon-Syria border.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9, 2025

March 9, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian forces are collapsing the northern part of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast following several days of intensified Russian activity in the area. The temporal correlation between the suspension of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine and the start of Russia's collapse of the Ukrainian Kursk salient is noteworthy. Reports about the extent of the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine continue to indicate that the suspension will likely affect Ukraine's ability to defend against Russia.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 8, 2025

March 8, 2025 - ISW Press

The extent of the US suspension of intelligence sharing with Ukraine remains unclear. The Washington Post reported on March 7 that a statement by the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) noted that the NGA "temporarily suspended [Ukraine's] access" to the system that provides Ukraine with commercial satellite imagery that the United States has purchased.

Iran Update, March 7, 2025

March 7, 2025 - ISW Press

Insurgent cells continued to attack Syrian interim government personnel across Latakia and Tartous provinces as Syrian forces deployed to re-impose security over the coastal region.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7, 2025

March 7, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian forces conducted one of the largest ever missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of March 6 to 7 as Russian forces continue to adapt strike packages to overwhelm Ukraine's air defense umbrella by increasing the total number of Shahed and decoy drones in each strike.

The West Must Offer Syria's Interim Government Tightly Conditioned Aid against an Emerging Assadist Insurgency

March 7, 2025 - ISW Press

An Assadist insurgency has emerged in western Syria and stands to help US adversaries expand their influence there.

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