Publications

Iran Update, November 30, 2024

November 30, 2024 - ISW Press

Syrian opposition forces seized Aleppo City and advanced toward Hama City. Pro-Syrian regime forces have failed to mount an effective defense against the opposition offensive. The Turkish-backed SNA launched a separate offensive into Syrian regime-held territory. The SNA captured a military airport from the joint control of the SAA and SDF. The opposition offensive in northeastern Syria may be inspiring anti-regime activity in other parts of the country, particularly restive Daraa and Suwayda provinces. The Syrian regime may struggle to rally the same support from the Axis of Resistance and Russia that they previously provided, which will impede pro-regime counteroffensives.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30, 2024

November 30, 2024 - ISW Press

Kremlin officials responded to Syrian opposition forces' offensive into Syrian regime-held territory on November 29 and 30 and expressed interest in using the Astana Process to respond to the situation. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un during his unannounced trip to Pyongyang on November 30.

Iran Update, November 29, 2024

November 29, 2024 - ISW Press

Syrian opposition forces continued their offensive into Syrian regime-held territory and advanced into Aleppo City. The opposition forces have continued expanding their offensive eastward since launching the surprise offensive on November 27. Thousands of fighters and armored elements advanced quickly eastward, seizing several villages within a few hours of launching the offensive. Fateh Mubin—an opposition group based in HTS-controlled Idlib Province—announced on November 28 that they had seized control of another 13 villages and achieved the “complete liberation” of the countryside to the west of Aleppo City.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 29, 2024

November 29, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to laud the technical specifications of the recently launched Oreshnik ballistic missile and threaten additional Oreshnik strikes against Ukraine as part of an intensified Russian reflexive control campaign aimed at forcing the West and Ukraine into self-deterrence. Putin addressed members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization's (CSTO) Security Council in Astana, Kazakhstan, on November 28 and reiterated several claims about the Oreshnik ballistic missile, with which Russian forces struck Dnipro City on November 21.

Iran Update, November 27, 2024

November 27, 2024 - ISW Press

The Israel-Lebanese Hezbollah ceasefire has held as it went into effect on November 26.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 27, 2024

November 27, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces continue to leverage Western-provided weapons to conduct strikes using more complex strike packages against military objects in Russia's deep rear.

Iran Update, November 26, 2024

November 26, 2024 - ISW Press

Israel and Lebanon approved a ceasefire to end the war in Lebanon on November 26. The ceasefire is set to come into effect on November 27 at 2:00 am GMT. The text published by Israeli media requires a full Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrawal from Lebanon by January 26, 2025. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supported the deal in a message to his ministers and noted that Israel needs to focus on Iran, the need to rest its forces, and further isolating Hamas.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 26, 2024

November 26, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian officials continue to demonstrate that the Kremlin aims to seize more territory in Ukraine than it currently occupies and is unwilling to accept compromises or engage in good faith negotiations, no matter who mediates such talks. Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergei Naryshkin claimed on November 26 that Russia is open to negotiations but stated that Russia "categorically rejects" any "freezing" of the current frontline or the creation of a demilitarized zone.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25, 2024

November 25, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian forces continue to make significant tactical advances in western Donetsk Oblast and are coming closer to enveloping Velyka Novosilka and advancing towards important Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) supplying the rest of western Donetsk Oblast and running into eastern Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Iran Update, November 25, 2024

November 25, 2024 - ISW Press

Israel and Lebanon are expected to reach a ceasefire agreement within the next few days that would achieve stated Israeli war aims.

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