Publications

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17, 2025

May 17, 2025 - ISW Press

The Russian delegation in Istanbul reportedly framed its demands for a final peace settlement as preconditions that Ukraine must meet before Russia will agree to a ceasefire. Most of Russia's demands are contrary to US President Donald Trump's proposed peace plan... ISW continues to assess that Russia's war aim remains full Ukrainian capitulation.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, May 17, 2025

May 17, 2025 - ISW Press

CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping paid an official visit to Moscow for the annual Russian Victory Day and used the opportunity to highlight the strategic partnership between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16, 2025

May 16, 2025 - ISW Press

Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Istanbul on May 16 but made little progress towards agreeing to a full ceasefire or a peace settlement to Russia's war against Ukraine.

Iran Update, May 16, 2025

May 16, 2025 - ISW Press

Israel targeted Houthi-controlled al Salif and Hudaydah ports on May 16 as part of an Israeli campaign to disrupt the Houthi ability to enable attacks targeting Israel.

Iran Update, May 15, 2025

May 15, 2025 - ISW Press

Iran and the United States continue to disagree on the US demand for zero uranium enrichment, which may stall the US-Iran nuclear negotiations and delay a nuclear deal. US President Donald Trump stated on May 15 that the United States and Iran are "very close" to reaching a nuclear deal and that Iran has “sort of” agreed to US demands. An unspecified Iranian source familiar with the negotiations told Reuters on May 15 that Iran and the United States continue to disagree on the issue of Iranian uranium enrichment.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15, 2025

May 15, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's invitation to engage in bilateral negotiations in Istanbul and continues refusing to offer concessions to end the war in Ukraine. Putin spoke to media organizations on the night of May 10 to 11, following the May 10 joint US-Ukrainian-European proposal for a general ceasefire for at least 30 days beginning on May 12. Putin did not agree to the joint US-Ukrainian-European proposal and instead proposed that Russia and Ukraine "resume" on May 15 the direct negotiations that he claimed Ukraine "interrupted" in 2022 in Istanbul.

Africa File, May 15, 2025: JNIM Seizes Burkinabe Provincial Capital in Latest Blow to Traoré; IS West Africa Regains the Advantage in Lake Chad; IS Sahel Operationalizes Support Networks in Nigeria; Tripoli Clashes

May 15, 2025 - ISW Press

Burkina Faso. Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen’s latest attack highlights its ability to overrun population centers in the Sahel and the failures of the coup-prone Burkinabe junta.

Russian Occupation Update, May 15, 2025

May 15, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian sources continue to provide additional details on the scale of the planned removal and deportation of Ukrainian children to summer camps in occupied Ukraine and throughout the Russian Federation. The Kherson Oblast occupation Ministry of Education reported to Russian outlet Komsomolskaya Pravda on May 13 that 4,086 children from occupied Kherson Oblast will go to 77 summer camps and organizations throughout occupied Ukraine and Russia in Summer 2025.

Iran Update, May 14, 2025

May 14, 2025 - ISW Press

Syrian President Ahmed al Shara has continued to prioritize appeasing loyalists in his ruling coalition over reassuring minority groups that the government will protect them, which risks future instability. The Syrian Interior Ministry promoted Latakia Province General Security Service (GSS) Director Lieutenant Colonel Mustafa Knefati to commander of the Interior Ministry Special Forces on May 13.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14, 2025

May 14, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian officials continue to reiterate Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent call to base future negotiations with Ukraine on the early 2022 Istanbul protocols that included Russian demands for Ukraine's complete capitulation. Russian Ambassador-at-Large and former Russian occupation official, Rodion Miroshnik, claimed on May 14 that the April 2022 draft Istanbul protocols could be the basis for an agreement to end Russia's war in Ukraine. Miroshnik is echoing Putin's May 11 call to "resume" the 2022 Istanbul direct negotiations in response to the May 10 joint US-Ukrainian-European proposal for a 30-day minimum general ceasefire.

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