Iran Update, December 13, 2024
December 13, 2024 - ISW Press
The Iranian regime is still coming to terms with the fall of the Assad regime and reflecting on its former Syria policy.
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Publications
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 13, 2024
December 13, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian forces conducted their largest series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine since the start of the war overnight on December 12 to 13, largely targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Russian Efforts to Centralize Drone Units May Degrade Russian Drone Operations
December 13, 2024 - ISW Press
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) launched a coordinated effort in August 2024 to create a centralized separate branch for unmanned systems, likely to reorganize informal specialized drone detachments and centralize procurement of unmanned systems.... The Russian MoD’s centralization and restructuring efforts may degrade the effectiveness of the Russian drone operations and slow the Russian unmanned systems innovation cycle.
Iran Update, December 12, 2024
December 12, 2024 - ISW Press
Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) is trying to retain control over the forces that it leads to maintain its moderate image and prevent sectarian conflict. The SDF is factionalizing under internal and external pressure. The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) confirmed on December 12 that it reached a ceasefire agreement with the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Manbij, northern Syria.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12, 2024
December 12, 2024 - ISW Press
Russia has reportedly reached an agreement with select elements of the Syrian opposition about control over Russian military bases in Syria, but it remains unclear if the alleged agreement ensures the security of Russia's bases in Syria in the long-term.
Africa File, December 12, 2024: Kremlin Pivot to Libya or Sudan Post-Syria; Turkey Mediates Ethiopia-Somalia Deal
December 12, 2024 - ISW Press
Russia has maintained the security of its Syrian bases in the short term but expressed long-term uncertainty about the future of these bases, the loss of which would undermine Russia’s ability to project power into the Mediterranean and support Russian military logistics in Africa.
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, December 12, 2024
December 12, 2024 - ISW Press
ROC President William Lai completed his tour of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies in the Pacific, which included transits through Hawaii and Guam. The PRC strongly condemned the transits and launched a military exercise after Lai returned.
Iran Update, December 11, 2024
December 11, 2024 - ISW Press
Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani is attempting to consolidate HTS’s political and military control in a post-interim Syrian government.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 11, 2024
December 11, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian forces continue to make tactical gains south of Pokrovsk as they attack into Ukrainian weak points and attempt to conduct a turning maneuver to directly assault Pokrovsk from the south.
Iran Update, December 10, 2024
December 10, 2024 - ISW Press
Senior Syrian officials from the deposed Bashar al Assad regime have begun to transfer power to the HTS-led interim government as of December 10. Outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed al Jalili reported that former Assad officials are working with the interim government to preserve state institutions and government workers’ jobs. The chief executive of Sawsan Abu Zainedin—an umbrella group of 200 Syrian civil society groups—emphasized that the interim government would refrain from the “de-Baathification” of the Syrian state.