Russia Security Update: February 2-17, 2016

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a snap readiness inspection of forces in southwestern Russia and the Crimean Peninsula beginning February 8 including air, naval, and air defense assets as well as up to 8,500 troops. The drills may have been a show of force in response to revelations of Western plans to deploy troops in Eastern Europe and the Baltics. NATO members agreed to increase the alliance’s forward presence along its eastern flank, reportedly with up to 6,000 troops, days after the U.S. revealed a proposal to deploy a new rotating contingent to the region. Increased Russian-NATO tensions coincided with a February 11 international agreement calling for a “cessation of hostilities” in Syria. Despite the agreement, Russia signaled its intent to continue launching airstrikes against the Syrian armed opposition, which it classifies as terrorists, thus jeopardizing any possibility of a true ceasefire in order to bolster the position of the Assad regime. Russia meanwhile continued to escalate its confrontation with Turkey, inviting the dominant Syrian Kurdish political group to open its first European representative office in Moscow and casting Turkey as the spoiler of a potential ceasefire. Russia deployed its advanced Tu-214R spyplane on February 15, days after agreeing to halt hostilities, increasing its ability to strike opposition targets. Russia continued to advance its economic interests in the Middle East, including with U.S. allies, despite its polarizing operations in Syria. Russia reached an agreement to boost bilateral trade with Iraq and a preliminary agreement with Saudi Arabia aimed at stabilizing the slumping price of oil. Iran voiced its opposition to the oil production freeze despite reportedly sending its defense minister to Moscow to discuss major arms deals, demonstrating the competing effects of sanctions relief on Russian-Iranian relations.

By Hugo Spaulding and Franklin Holcomb