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LTG (ret) James Dubik, ISW Senior Fellow
What happens after the battle? Sectarian violence or an inclusive kind of governance? "If it’s the latter, that will bode well for the future. If it’s the former, these will be big problems.”
“The concern [over Shi’a militias] is what happens after the battle. Will there be sectarian violence?… Or will there be a relatively inclusive kind of governance and even-handed governance? If it’s the latter, that will bode well for the future. If it’s the former, these will be big problems.”
While Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko announced that both the separatists and Ukrainian Anti-Terror Operation (ATO) forces had withdrawn a large amount of heavy weaponry in accordance with the February 12 ceasefire agreement, shelling and clashes persisted in several key areas across the frontline.
Key Take-away: The threat of large-scale attacks in North Sinai by ISIS’s Wilayat Sinai is elevated as of March 12, 2015, but this threat is not assessed to directly target the upcoming Egypt Economic Development Conference in Sharm al-Sheikh scheduled for March 13-15, 2015 due to heightened security in South Sinai.
ISW Senior Naval Analyst Chris Harmer
“ISIS still has the strategic initiative. They’ve reached their natural limit of expansion in Iraq. They’re continuing to expand in Syria. And we’ve done nothing to reduce their heartland territory in Syria.”
“ISIS still has the strategic initiative. They’ve reached their natural limit of expansion in Iraq. They’re continuing to expand in Syria. And we’ve done nothing to reduce their heartland territory in Syria.”
LTG (ret) James Dubik, ISW Senior Fellow (right)
Mosul is a “very big target to start the counter-offensive with and the stakes will be pretty high to make sure that it’s successful.” Signaling the move on Mosul by U.S. was “really foolish.”
Mosul is a “very big target to start the counter-offensive with and the stakes will be pretty high to make sure that it’s successful.” Signaling the move on Mosul by U.S. was “really foolish.”
ISW Senior Naval Analyst Chris Harmer
"I think it’s important that the American people know this is a long-term fight and that what we’re doing right now, while effective in the short-term, is not going to result in the long-term destruction of ISIS.”
ISW Senior Naval Analyst on MSNBC's The Cycle. “I think it’s important that the American people know this is a long-term fight and that what we’re doing right now, while effective in the short-term, is not going to result in the long-term destruction of ISIS.”