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Iran Update, May 4, 2024

May 4, 2024 - ISW Press

Hamas and Qatari delegations arrived in Cairo to discuss the current ceasefire proposal on May 4. Hamas is expected to present an official response to the proposal during the discussions.[2] Arab mediators told the Wall Street Journal that the head of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar, said on May 3 that the proposed deal is the closest deal to Hamas’ demands so far, but Sinwar raised several conditions. Hamas Political Bureau member Ghazi Hamad said that the group is still considering the proposal and considering its response. Senior Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi told Palestinian media on May 3 that Hamas is skeptical that Israel will implement the ceasefire deal given internal Israeli politics. Israel has not sent a delegation to participate in the talks, but an unnamed Israeli official said that Israel will send a delegation to Cairo if there is “positive movement” on the Hamas side regarding a deal.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4, 2024

May 4, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian forces made a notable tactical advance northwest of Avdiivka near Arkhanhelske on the night of May 3 to 4, likely following a Ukrainian decision to withdraw from the area on May 3. A Russian milblogger posted footage on May 4 reportedly of elements of the Russian “Lavina” Battalion of the 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] Army Corps) raising a flag in Arkhanhelske, and ISW geolocated this footage to northern Arkhanhelske. Additional geolocated footage published on May 4 indicates that Russian forces advanced in the eastern outskirts of Arkhanhelske.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, May 3, 2024

May 3, 2024 - ISW Press

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) eased cross-strait trade and travel restrictions after hosting a Kuomintang (KMT) delegation. The PRC ended the trade bans after hosting the KMT delegation as a form of economic coercion that aims to reduce domestic support for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan. KMT Caucus Whip Fu Kun-chi traveled to the PRC on April 26, where he met with CCP officials throughout the weekend. Fu met with General Administration of Customs Deputy Director Zhao Zenglian on April 28.

Iran Update, May 2, 2024

May 2, 2024 - ISW Press

A Lebanese media outlet published on May 1 the purported text of the Egyptian-proposed ceasefire agreement that Hamas is considering. The reported proposal addresses all of Hamas’ maximalist demands except for a permanent ceasefire.Hamas would not likely adhere to a permanent ceasefire, however, given that Hamas has violated previous ceasefires and that Hamas remains committed to destroying Israel.

Africa File, May 2, 2024: Iran Pursues Economic and Military Influence

May 2, 2024 - ISW Press

Iran in Africa: Iran is using military exports as a vehicle to pursue objectives in Africa such as acquiring uranium in Niger and a permanent Red Sea port in Sudan. The United States has tried to push against these efforts through bilateral and multilateral pressure and negotiating alternative solutions. Iran is also trying to expand its economic ties across Africa to mitigate sanctions, as demonstrated by its second annual Iran-Africa trade summit. Numerous meetings between Iran and Burkinabe and Zimbabwean officials indicate both countries are a particular focus.

Iran Update, May 1, 2024

May 1, 2024 - ISW Press

Hamas asked international mediators to clarify the terms of two sections of the new Egyptian-proposed ceasefire proposal, according to an Egyptian official speaking to Israeli media. Hamas requested assurances that the second stage of the deal would facilitate the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip and requested clarification on the unconditional return of displaced Gazans to the northern Gaza Strip. Egyptian sources speaking to a United Kingdom-based, Qatari-owned outlet said that an Israeli delegation arrived in Cairo on April 30 to discuss Hamas’ concerns and amendments to the deal. The Egyptian officials expect that Hamas will deliver its final response to the deal ”at the end of the week.”

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 1, 2024

May 1, 2024 - ISW Press

The Russian military is reportedly redeploying elements of the 76th and 7th airborne (VDV) divisions from Zaporizhia Oblast in the direction of eastern Ukraine, likely to reinforce and intensify ongoing offensive operations. Select Russian and Ukrainian sources claimed that elements of the Russian 76th and 7th airborne (VDV) divisions that have been deployed to the Robotyne area in western Zaporizhia Oblast since the height of the Ukrainian summer 2023 counteroffensive are redeploying to new directions, but disagreed on the units redeploying and the areas to which these elements are redeploying.

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