ISW's Iraq Election Center

Significant Events Related to the Election | Election Fact Sheet | Update 1 (Jan. 29, 2009) | Update 2 (Jan. 31, 2009) | Update 3 (Feb. 3, 2009) | Update 4 (Feb. 4, 2009) | Update 5 (Feb. 5, 2009) | Election Results Update (Feb. 5, 2009) | Update 6 (Feb. 20, 2009)

 

Election Results Update (Feb. 20, 2009)

 

The Associated Press has published a complete list of the final Provincial Election results for the 14 of 18 Iraqi provinces that participated in the recent election.  These results can be found at the following address:

 

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/02/19/world/AP-ML-Iraq-Election-Results.html

 

Results

 

ANBAR (29 seats)

Awakening of Iraq and Independents, Sheik Ahmed Abu Risha, Sunni - 8

Iraqi National Project, moderate politician Saleh al-Mutlaq, Sunni - 6

Alliance of Intellectuals and Tribes, Iraqi Islamic Party, Sunni - 6

National Movement for Reform and Development - 3

National Iraqi List, former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, secular - 2

Iraqi Tribes List - 2

Iraqi National Unity - 2

 

BABIL (30 seats)

Coalition of the State of Law, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Shiite - 8

Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council loyalists, Shiite - 5

Followers of anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, Shiite - 3

National Reform Trend, former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, Shiite - 3

Civil Society list - 3

National Iraqi List, former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, secular - 3

Independent Justice Association - 3

Independent Ansar list - 2

 

BAGHDAD (57 seats)

Coalition of the State of Law, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Shiite - 28

National Accordance Front, Sunni - 7

Followers of anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, Shiite - 5

National Iraqi List, former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, secular - 5

Iraqi National Project, moderate politician Saleh al-Mutlaq, Sunni - 4

Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council loyalists, Shiite - 3

National Reform Trend, former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, Shiite - 3

Christian - 1

Mandaeen - 1

 

BASRA (35 seats)

Coalition of the State of Law, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Shiite - 20

Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council loyalists, Shiite - 5

Gathering of Justice and Unity - moderate Shitte 2

Followers of anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, Shiite - 2

National Iraqi List, former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, secular - 2

Iraqi Islamic Party, Sunni - 2

Fadhila party - Shiite 1

Christians - 1

 

DHI QAR (31 seats)

Coalition of the State of Law, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Shiite - 13

Followers of anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, Shiite - 7

Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council loyalists, Shiite - 5

National Reform Trend, former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, Shiite - 4

Fadhila party, Shiite - 2

 

DIYALA (29 seats)

National Accordance Front, Sunni - 9

Iraqi National Project, moderate Sunni - 6

Kurdish Alliance - 6

National Iraqi List, former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, secular - 3

Coalition of the State of Law, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Shiite - 2

Diyala Coalition - Shiite close to SIIC 2

National Reform Trend, former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, Shiite - 1

 

KARBALA (27 seats)

Youssef Majid al-Haboubi, Shiite - 1

Hope of Rafidain - Shiite 9

Coalition of the State of Law, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Shiite - 9

Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council loyalists, Shiite - 4

Followers of anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, Shiite - 4

 

MAYSAN (27 seats)

Coalition of the State of Law, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Shiite - 8

Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council loyalists, Shiite - 8

Followers of anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, Shiite - 7

National Reform Trend, former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, Shiite - 4

 

MUTHANNA (26 seats)

Coalition of the State of Law, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Shiite - 5

Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council loyalists, Shiite - 5

The People's List - 3

National Reform Trend, former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, Shiite - 3

Followers of anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, Shiite - 2

Gathering for Muthanna - 2

Independent National List - 2

The Gathering of Iraqi Professionals - 2

The Gathering of Middle Euphrates - 2

 

NAJAF (28 seats)

Coalition of the State of Law, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Shiite - 7

Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council loyalists, Shiite - 7

Followers of anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, Shiite - 6

Loyality to Najaf - secular led by former governor Adnan al-Zourfi - 4

National Reform Trend, former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, Shiite - 2

Union of Independent Najaf - 2

 

NINEVAH (37 seats)

National Hadba Gathering, Sunni nationalist - 19

Ninevah Brotherhood, Kurdish list - 12

Iraqi Islamic Party, Sunni - 3

Shabak - 1

Chrisitan - 1

Yazidi - 1

 

QADISIYAH (28 seats)

Coalition of the State of Law, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Shiite - 11

Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council loyalists, Shiite - 5

National Iraqi List, former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, secular - 3

National Reform Trend, former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, Shiite - 3

Followers of anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, Shiite - 2

Islamic Loyalty party - 2

Fadhila party, Shiite - 2

 

SALAHUDDIN (28 seats)

National Accordance Front, Sunni - 5

National Iraqi List, former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, secular - 5

Iraqi National Project, moderate politician Saleh al-Mutlaq, Sunni - 3

National Project of Iraq - 3

Group of Iraqi Intellectuals and Scientists - 2

Iraqi Turkoman Front - 2

Front of Liberation and Building - 2

Salahuddin Patriotic List - 2

Brotherhood and Peaceful Coexistence - 2

Coalition of the State of Law, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Shiite - 2

 

WASIT (28 seats)

Coalition of the State of Law, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Shiite - 13

Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council loyalists, Shiite - 6

Followers of anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, Shiite - 3

National Iraqi List, former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, secular - 3

Iraqi Constitutional Party, led by Interior Minister Jawad al-Bolani, moderate - 3

 

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Election Results Update (Feb. 5, 2009)

Update 5 (Feb. 5, 2009)

 - Jeremy Domergue, ISW Research Analyst

• Some reports indicate that Yousef Majid Hadi al-Haboubi, who is currently on par to win a plurality of votes in the Karbala provincial election, has successfully evaded an attempt on his life earlier Thursday morning.[1]
• Naja Aweed, a female member of the Iraqi Constitutional Party led by Interior Minister Jawad al-Bolani, survived an assassination attempt after a bomb explosion rocked her convoy as it passed through Baghdad’s Dora neighborhood.[2]

 

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Update 4 (Feb. 4, 2009)

 - Scott Weiner, ISW Research Assistant

• In the 72 hours prior to elections, US and Iraqi forces conducted operations against 111 targets designed “to cause maximum disruption to any violence enemy fighters had planned for election day.” [i]
• “A citizen’s tip led Iraqi Special Operations Forces to a weapons cache Jan. 29 in Baghdad filled with more than 600 items intended to disrupt the provincial elections.”[ii]

• Regarding possible election fraud, Awakening leader Ahmed Abu Risha says, in Ramadi: “Don't blame us if we threaten to resort to the use of arms. This is destiny. It is to be or not to be…This is not democracy. It is an abuse of democracy."[iii] 
• IHEC is investigating “serious” allegations of electoral fraud in Anbar. The complaints are being reviewed by a group of 15 lawyers and five “elections experts.”[iv]

• The deadline for submitting election-related complaints to IHEC closed at 6pm Iraqi time on February 4, 2009.[v]
• IHEC has already disqualified ballots in Najaf and Anbar provinces due to “rigging, which was obvious.”[vi]

• Maliki met with Sayyid Ali al-Sistani February 4 in Najaf. Najaf has been the site of contention over the legitimacy of the elections.
• Maliki also met with Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim, head of ISCI and the United Iraqi Alliance coalition in Baghdad.

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Update 3 (February 3, 2009)

 - Scott Weiner, ISW Research Assistant

 

VOTER TURNOUT

 

• Voting was extended by one hour due to a strong turnout, until 6 pm.[i]
• Voter turnout was 7.5 million, or 51% of the Iraqi Population.[ii]
• The highest turnout -- 65 percent -- was in the Salaheddin province in northern Iraq. The lowest -- 40 percent -- was in Anbar, west of Baghdad.[iii]
• Voter Turnout alphabetically by Province:[iv]
  • Anbar: 40%
  • Babil: 56%
  • Baghdad: 40%
  • Basra: 48%
  • Dhi Qar: 50%
  • Diyala: 57%
  • Karbala: 60%
  • Missan: 46%
  • Muthanna: 61%
  • Najaf: 55%
  • Ninewa: 60%
  • Qadisiyah: 58%
  • Salah al-Din: 65%
  • Wassit: 54%

 

MAJOR SECURITY INCIDENTS[v]

 

• Mosul: Two people killed in an early morning gun confrontation.
• Tikrit: Four explosions at a polling station, with no casualties.
• Tuz Khurmatu: Bombing wounds seven people, including six policemen.

 

Update 2 (January 31, 2009)

 

January 31, 2009

• Iraqis complete election day in their first Provincial Elections since 2005 with no major security incidents. (Source:  AP)
• Four minor incidents were reported.  There was a shooting near a polling location in Sadr City in which one person was killed and one was injured.  In Tikrit, three mortar shells landed near a polling location, but caused no injuries.  Also in Tikrit, a bomb was found near a polling location and safely difused.  In Khanaqin (near the Iraq-Iran border), a mob of Kurds stormed an election office due to voting disputes with the Arab-run central government with no reports of serious injury. (Source:  AP)

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Update 1 (January 29, 2009)

 - Jeremy Domergue, ISW Research Analyst

January 29, 2009

• A spokesman for the Iraqi Turkmen Front revealed that since yesterday's attack on the polling center in Tuz, Peshmerga forces, the armed police force of the Kurdish Regional Government, have been deployed to help secure polling locations in the surrounding area.  About 15 Peshmerga guards have been deployed to each location.  The use of these forces at polling locations is a violation of official electoral regulations. (Source:  Almalaf Press Agency)
• Ali Lajiyeh, a member of the United Iraqi Peoples list, alleges that Iraqi Security Forces personnel in Diyala Province were pressured by their leadership to vote for specific lists during yesterday's special election session.  Ali Lajiyeh did not name specific individuals or parties that may be behind such efforts.  It was also reported by an undisclosed source that seven people were arrested in Salah al-Din Province on suspicion of forging electoral results from yesterday's special election session. (Source:  Al-Sharquiya)

 

January 28, 2009

• Unknown gunmen open fire on a polling location in Tuz (80 km south of Kirkuk).  Two members of the Iraqi Police (including an officer) were killed in the attack. (Source:  Aswat al-Iraq)
• Roughly 750,000 Iraqis were expected to vote early in a special election session ahead of Saturday's general election date.  Those voting early include security force personnel, detainees, and hospitalized persons. (Source:  Dar al-Hayat)

 

Election Fact Sheet

 

ISW Research Assistant Scott Weiner has put together an excellent resource for the upcoming Iraqi Provincial Elections.  Below are a few items from his fact sheet.  To read the full fact sheet click here.

• A total of 502 parties have registered to participate in the election, and a total 14,431 candidates, including 3,912 women, will be vying for 440 open seats on the provincial councils of Iraq.
• 80% of the political parties had formed after the 2005 elections.
• There is an average of 33 candidates per position.
• 36 Coalitions will participate in the elections.
• The Iraqi Provincial Elections are overseen by the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) in coordination with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
• A provincial council is a governing body similar to an American state legislature.
• Under the Provincial Powers Law of March 19, 2008, provincial councils and governors are given significant authority. The councils have the power to make laws for the province and to allocate funds for projects within that province.
• Provincial Elections were originally scheduled for October 1, 2008, but were delayed due to disagreements over electoral procedure for Kirkuk, a city hotly contested between Sunni Arabs, Kurds, and Turkomen. The Provincial Election Law, passed September 24, 2008, calls for Kirkuk’s elections to take place later, under a separate process.
• Registration occurred over a six-week period beginning the week of July 21st, 2008 and ending August 28th, 2008. It was overseen by 6500 IHEC employees at 564 voter registration centers throughout Iraq.
• 2.9 million Iraqis (17% of the electorate) ensured they were on the voter registry, which was created using the Public Distribution System (PDS) database. The PDS is used to distribute food rations.
• The Election High Security Committee, comprised of senior security officials from the Iraqi Interior Ministry, Defense Ministry, Office of the National Security Advisor, MNF-I, Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) and UNAMI, advises the IHEC Board of Commissioners on matters of security.
• Iraqi voters will be able to vote at one of 42,000 stations in 7000 polling locations in Iraq.
• After waiting in line, the voter will provide a photo ID to an identification officer. After their identity is verified, the voter must sign or thumbprint next to his or her name.
• After polls close at 5:00 p.m., station managers of each polling place will oversee a hand tabulation of the ballots. The ballots will be placed on large tables and each ballot will be counted twice in order to reduce the chance of error. The station manager will announce each new step to the election observers, who will stand a reasonable distance from the tabulation tables and may not touch any ballot.
• As provincial elections approach, both Coalition Forces and IHEC have been preparing for the threat of civil unrest.  In a change from 2005, security for the 2009 elections will be provided by the Iraqis. Despite these preparations, four provinces in particular (Diyala Province, Basra Province, Ninewa Province, and Anbar Province) are at an increased risk for civil unrest before and after the election.

 

Significant Events Related to the Election 

 

- Jeremy Domergue, ISW Research Analyst

The following significant events are primarily derived from Arabic and English news reports.

 January 27, 2009

• An Iraqi Police spokesman reveals that a school, located 10 km outside of Fallujah in Anbar Province, was set on fire by militants.  The school had been intended as a polling location.  The building was empty at the time of the attack. (Source:  Almalaf Press Agency)  
• A car bomb exploded 100 yards from a KDP (Kurdish Democratic Party, headed by Massoud Barzani) office in Mosul.  No Kurds were harmed, although at least three members of the Iraqi Security Forces were killed in the attack. (Source:  Associated Press)

January 25, 2009

• Grand Ayatollah al-Sayyid Muhammad Sa'ed al-Hakim of Najaf urges Iraqis to participate in upcoming elections. (Source:  Nahrainnet.net)

January 23, 2009            

• ISCI spokesman Rashid Hamid Mul’a denied rumors that his party is attempting to topple the Maliki government and renewed ISCI’s commitment to remain in the UIA.[i] He also emphasized the importance of provincial powers.

• IHEC is holding information sessions in Basra and Diwaniya in an effort to explain Provincial Elections Law ordinance to voters.[ii]
• There is growing resentment against religious parties amongst the southern tribes.[iii] A Sadrist spokesman in Najaf warns that the religious parties’ collective failure to provide services is in danger of affecting the community’s religious faith as a whole. The Sadrists seem to be forging last minute alliances with southern tribal elements, particularly the Shabal tribe, as well as with Maliki.

• IIP member and dean of the Islamic University Ziyad al-Ani escapes a car bomb assassination attempt against his convoy as it was traveling through Baghdad’s Azamiyah neighborhood.[iv] Although he was not himself running for office, he is believed to be heavily involved in the party’s provincial election campaign. U.S. forces blamed the attack on remnants of AQI.
• VP Abdul Mahdi is increasingly more vocal regarding the importance of respecting the constitution’s distribution of powers between the federal government and the provincial governments.[v]
• Abu Hayes, running under the “Anbar Salvation Council,” states that he refused to join forces with Abu Risha’s “Sahwatul Iraq” because of the latter’s overt alliance with the IIP.[vi]

• Polls show that most Iraqis prefer secular candidates, and many predict that sectarian parties will suffer a backlash for their incompetence.[vii]

• A suicide bomber kills Hassan al-Luheibi near Mosul, the Ninewah campaign manager for Saleh al-Mutlaq’s National Dialogue Front.[viii]
• Hassan al-Rubaie, a Sadrist, declares that victory in Amarah (Maysan) is crucial if the party is to avoid falling into political oblivion.[ix] Salah al-Obeidi declares winning one-third of all provincial council seats in the southern regions as the party’s primary political objective, so as to prevent “other Shiite parties from monopolizing power.”

• Haitham Kadhim al-Husaini, a cleric who belonged to Maliki’s Dawa Party, is fatally shot after a campaign appearance in the Jabala district, 25 miles south of Baghdad in Babil Province.[x]

• There is widening anger that the published version of the election law has only a weak provision for allocation of provincial council seats to women.[xi]

• Sadrist Bloc leader Aqil Abdul Hussein declares that despite Moqtada al-Sadr’s refusal to participate in the upcoming elections, supporters of the Sadrist Bloc will vote for lists 376 and 284.[xii]

• The Sadrist bloc officially confirms that it supports the “Blamelessness and Reconstruction” list in the forthcoming local elections (list 376), in addition to the “Independent Trend of the Noble Ones” ( list 284).[xiii]

• U.S. forces transfer responsibility for Diyala’s Awakening Councils to the Government of Iraq.[xiv]           
• Sistani urges Iraqis to vote in the upcoming elections, althought he remains non-partisan.[xv]