Iran Update, July 4, 2024
July 4, 2024 - ISW Press
Recent Iranian polls show that moderate Masoud Pezeshkian is leading over ultraconservative hardliner Saeed Jalili in the Iranian presidential race.
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Publications
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3, 2024
July 3, 2024 - ISW Press
Ukraine is addressing its manpower challenges and is forming several new brigades, but delayed and insufficient Western weapons deliveries will likely prevent Ukraine from equipping all these new brigades. Timely and appropriate Western security assistance continues to be a crucial determinant of when and at what scale Ukrainian forces can contest the battlefield initiative and conduct operationally significant counteroffensive operations in the future. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in an interview with Bloomberg published on July 3 that Ukrainian forces are better positioned in terms of manpower than they were a few months ago and that Ukraine's ability to conduct a future counteroffensive operation depends on equipping brigades with heavy equipment, such as mechanized fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, tanks, and heavy artillery (likely referencing at least 10 planned new Ukrainian brigades).
Iran Update, July 3, 2024
July 3, 2024 - ISW Press
The two Iranian presidential candidates—ultraconservative Saeed Jalili and reformist Masoud Pezeshkian—discussed economic issues in their final debate before the upcoming runoff election. The debate occurred on July 2. Ultraconservative Saeed Jalili continued to downplay the importance of nuclear negotiations with the West. Reformist Masoud Pezeshkian tried to garner support from hardliners. The runoff election will occur on July 5.
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, July 3, 2024
July 3, 2024 - ISW Press
Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) ships boarded a Taiwanese fishing boat for illegally fishing in PRC waters and escorted it to a naval port in Fujian province on July 2. The Taiwanese fishing boat was within PRC territorial waters 11.5 nautical miles from the PRC coast when the CCG ships confronted it. It was also near the Taiwanese island of Kinmen, though not within Taiwan-controlled waters. CCG spokesperson Liu Dejun said the fishing boat was suspected of illegally fishing in a prohibited area in violation of a summer fishing moratorium and was using equipment that did not comply with regulations.
Africa File, July 3, 2024: Boko Haram Resurgence; JNIM Onslaught in Burkina Faso; al Shabaab Exploits AU Withdrawal
July 3, 2024 - ISW Press
Boko Haram almost certainly conducted its first suicide attack since 2020, highlighting its ongoing resurgence in northeastern Nigeria. Boko Haram has also strengthened its territorial control, finances, and manpower over the past year. The attack may aim to inspire surrendered or defected Boko Haram fighters to remobilize.
Iran Update, July 2, 2024
July 2, 2024 - ISW Press
Iranian reformist presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian appears to be gaining momentum ahead of the runoff presidential elections on July 2.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 2, 2024
July 2, 2024 - ISW Press
The interplay between ongoing Russian offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Avdiivka directions indicates that the Russian military command may intend to leverage the ongoing Toretsk push to create operational opportunities for advances in either the Chasiv Yar or Avdiivka areas.
Iran Update, July 1, 2024
July 1, 2024 - ISW Press
Hardline presidential candidate Saeed Jalili will likely win the Iranian presidential election in the runoff race on July 5. No candidate received the majority of votes needed to win the Iranian presidential election on June 28 and Iran will hold a runoff election between the two most popular candidates—ultraconservative Saeed Jalili and reformist Masoud Pezeshkian—on July 5.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1, 2024
July 1, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) Head Vladimir Kolokoltsev boasted that Russian authorities have increased detentions and prosecutions related to illegal migration into Russia while calling for intensified Russian government crackdowns against illegal migration.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 30, 2024
June 30, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian President Vladimir Putin's theory of victory that Russia will be able to make creeping advances in Ukraine indefinitely will incentivize Putin to protract the war and harden Putin's commitment to destroying Ukrainian statehood. The West must hasten to provide Ukraine the support it needs to conduct counteroffensive operations to invalidate Putin's theory of victory and avoid protracting the war more than necessary to secure a peace acceptable to Ukraine and its partners.