Publications

Syria 90 - Day Strategic Forecast: The Regime and Allies

September 22, 2015 - Chris Kozak

Grand Strategic Objectives:
• [Syrian Regime] Preserve the rule of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in a post-war Syria encompassing the entire pre-war Syrian state
• [Iran] Preserve a viable Syrian regime led by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as a key member of the ‘Axis of Resistance’; achieve strategic positioning against Israel
• [Russia] Preserve the Syrian state – not necessarily Syrian President Bashar al-Assad – as a key foothold in the Middle East and an ally against terrorism
• [Hezbollah] Prevent the spread of the Syrian Civil War into Lebanese core terrain
Strategic Objectives:
• [Syrian Regime] Maintain Syrian territorial integrity through an ‘army in all corners’; consolidate Syrian civilian population in regime-held areas; bolster international and domestic legitimacy as ruler of Syria.
• [Iran] Position against Israel in southern Syria along the Golan Heights; preserve access to supply lines from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon; develop network of Syrian proxies to maintain Iranian influence if regime falls
• [Iran/Russia] Enable Syrian regime to defend core terrain along Syrian central corridor
• [Hezbollah] Secure Lebanese border region against incursion by militant groups

Forecasting the Syrian Civil War

September 22, 2015 - Chris Kozak

The trajectory of the Syrian Civil War may fundamentally shift within the 90 day timeframe. Russia escalated its military assistance on behalf of the Syrian regime in early September 2015, deploying armored vehicles and hundreds of personnel to the Syrian Coast in preparation for the establishment of at least one forward air operations base.

Iraq Situation Report: September 18 - 21, 2015

September 21, 2015 - Sinan Adnan

ISF operations to recapture Ramadi remain stalled, but remain the ISF’s main effort.

Putin's Information Warfare In Ukraine: Soviet Origins of Russia's Hybrid Warfare

September 21, 2015 - Maria Snegovaya

Russia has been using an advanced form of hybrid warfare in Ukraine since early 2014 that relies heavily on an element of information warfare that the Russians call “reflexive control.” Moscow has used this technique skillfully to persuade the U.S. and its European allies to remain largely passive in the face of Russia’s efforts to disrupt and dismantle Ukraine. The West must become alert to the use of reflexive control techniques and find ways to counter them if it is to succeed in an era of hybrid war.

Iraq Situation Report: September 18 - 21, 2015

September 21, 2015 - Sinan Adnan

ISF operations to recapture Ramadi remain stalled, but remain the ISF’s main effort.

Iraq Situation Report: September 15 - 17, 2015

September 17, 2015 - Sinan Adnan

Challenges are mounting against PM Abadi’s government and the ISF in Baghdad. Following the kidnapping of the 18 Turkish workers last week, likely by Iranian-backed Shi'a militias, this week witnessed the kidnapping of a former Sunni advisor from Anbar.

Iraq Situation Report: September 15 - 17, 2015

September 17, 2015 - Sinan Adnan

Challenges are mounting against PM Abadi’s government and the ISF in Baghdad. Following the kidnapping of the 18 Turkish workers last week, likely by Iranian-backed Shi'a militias, this week witnessed the kidnapping of a former Sunni advisor from Anbar.

Forecasting the Syrian Civil War

September 17, 2015 - Institute for the Study of War

The trajectory of the Syrian Civil War may fundamentally shift within the 90 day timeframe. Russia escalated its military assistance on behalf of the Syrian regime in early September 2015, deploying armored vehicles and hundreds of personnel to the Syrian Coast in preparation for the establishment of at least one forward air operations base.

ISW President Kimberly Kagan Testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee

September 17, 2015 -

ISW President Dr. Kimberly Kagan testified to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee yesterday September 16, 2015. The committee discussed the United States role in the Middle East focusing on Iraq, Syria, and the fight against ISIS.

Russian Deployment in Syria: Putin’s Middle East Game Changer

September 17, 2015 - Institute for the Study of War

Satellite imagery provided by AllSourceAnalysis confirms the recent arrival of Russian main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, helicopters, and other military equipment at an airbase in Syria’s coastal Latakia province, indicating that Russia has deployed troops inside Syria. Concurrent military exercises inside Russia suggest that Russia may intend to deploy additional forces, possibly further inside Syria.

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