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Russian-backed separatists continued to launch indirect fire and small probing attacks along the front line in eastern Ukraine against the backdrop of a restart in ceasefire negotiations in Minsk, Belarus on July 7.
Syrian rebel factions launched long-awaited offensives against the isolated provincial capitals of Dera’a and Aleppo Cities, located in southern and northern Syria respectively. The fall of either city to rebel forces including Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra would overturn the stalemate that has long characterized the Syrian Civil War, opening the door to further offensives against core regime terrain in Damascus and the Syrian Coast.
ISIS continued to launch SVBIED and direct fire attacks against Haditha district in western Anbar, following a SVBIED wave that the ISF largely repelled on July 5-6.
ISIS intensified its attacks against the ISF and Iraqi Shi’a militias in northern and western Iraq.
The rapid deterioration of political negotiations between the separatist “republics” and Kyiv may trigger a military escalation by the Russian-backed forces, which continue to conduct heavy indirect fire strikes against frontline Ukrainian positions.
ISIS’s most complex ground assault outside Iraq and Syria to date occurred in northern Sinai on July 1, suggesting the expansion of ISIS’s ground warfare to the Near Abroad. Previously ISIS’s attacks patterns across the region had primarily featured notable spectacular attacks.
Various Iraqi Shi’a militias along with the Federal Police (FP) and elite units from the ISF appear to have made advances against ISIS in Baiji.
The death of al-Qaeda’s general manager, Nasir al-Wahayshi, will likely disrupt al-Qaeda’s global operations until he is replaced. It is likely that al-Qaeda leader Aymen al-Zawahiri will nominate his replacement according to traditional leadership patterns. It is dangerous but plausible, however, that Zawahiri will seek to maximize the influence of newer al-Qaeda leaders. One possible candidate for future al-Qaeda leadership is Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, the leader of al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra.