Iran Update, August 18, 2024
August 18, 2024 - ISW Press
Hamas rejected the latest US-mediated ceasefire-hostage proposal negotiated last week with Egypt, Israel, and Qatar.
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Publications
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 18, 2024
August 18, 2024 - ISW Press
Ukrainian forces continued assaults throughout their salient in Kursk Oblast on August 18 and marginally advanced southeast of Sudzha.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17, 2024
August 17, 2024 - ISW Press
The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine are not in themselves decisive military operations that will win the war. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces lack the capability to conduct individual decisive war-winning operations and must instead conduct multiple successive operations with limited operational objectives that are far short of victory, but that in aggregate can achieve strategic objectives. It is too early to assess the outcomes and operational significance of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia and the ongoing Russian offensive effort in eastern Ukraine.
Iran Update, August 17, 2024
August 17, 2024 - ISW Press
Hamas has rejected optimism from US and international mediators that a ceasefire-hostage agreement is close to being reached.
Iran Update, August 16, 2024
August 16, 2024 - ISW Press
The United States and foreign mediators seem to be attempting to delay or indefinitely postpone an Iranian and Hezbollah attack targeting Israel by both threatening Iran and presenting a potential ceasefire-hostage agreement as an off-ramp from further regional escalation.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 16, 2024
August 16, 2024 - ISW Press
Ukrainian forces continued to marginally advance southeast of Sudzha on August 16 amid continued Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast.
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, August 16, 2024
August 16, 2024 - ISW Press
The PRC released four members of a Taiwanese fishing boat on August 13, whom it detained near Kinmen on July 2. The crew’s release does not indicate a change in the PRC’s long-term coercion campaign against Taiwan, however.
Iran Update, August 15, 2024
August 15, 2024 - ISW Press
Iran is likely trying to build operational surprise ahead of its expected attack on Israel. CTP-ISW continues to assess that the most likely course of action is that Iran and its Axis of Resistance will conduct a coordinated drone and missile attack on Israel.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15, 2024
August 15, 2024 - ISW Press
Ukrainian officials are taking steps to consolidate and coordinate the management of ongoing Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast while continuing to highlight Ukrainian advances. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continued advancing in some areas in Kursk Oblast amid a generally slower tempo of Ukrainian operations in the area. Russian forces are maintaining their relatively high offensive tempo in Donetsk Oblast, demonstrating that the Russian military command continues to prioritize advances in eastern Ukraine even as Ukraine is pressuring Russian forces within Kursk Oblast.
Iran Update, August 14, 2024
August 14, 2024 - ISW Press
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei indicated that he still believes Iran must respond to Israeli operations targeting senior Axis of Resistance leaders in recent weeks, despite back-channel threats from the United States emphasizing that Israel would respond forcefully to an attack that kills Israeli civilians or causes significant damage.