Iran Update, July 19, 2024
July 19, 2024 - ISW Press
The Houthis launched a one-way attack drone into Tel Aviv for the first time on July 18, killing one individual and injuring at least another 10.
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Publications
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, July 19, 2024
July 19, 2024 - ISW Press
Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) Spokesperson Chen Binhua accused the DPP of intentionally distorting information about the PRC’s recent legal guidelines for punishing Taiwanese separatism and generating undeserved fear among the Taiwanese public.
Iran Update, July 18, 2024
July 18, 2024 - ISW Press
Members of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s inner circle told Western Media that Khamenei sought to promote the candidacy of Masoud Pezeshkian due to Pezeshkian’s ability to “foster unity.” The Western media report is inconsistent with the regime’s previous stances vis-a-vis Pezeshkian throughout the election campaign period. Khamenei’s statements and IRGC meetings suggest that Pezeshkian’s rise to the presidency was unplanned.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18, 2024
July 18, 2024 - ISW Press
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian coast guard base in occupied Crimea on the night of July 17 to 18. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported on July 18 that sources in Ukrainian law enforcement stated that Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) conducted a naval and aerial drone strike during a Russian military exercise at a Russian coast guard base near occupied Lake Donuzlav, Crimea on the night of July 17 to 18 and damaged and disabled a headquarters with a control point, a warehouse with ammunition and equipment, an electric substation, technical facilities, and Russian firing positions.
Africa File, July 18, 2024: Sudan Spillover Threatens Ethiopia
July 18, 2024 - ISW Press
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met with Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) leader Abdel Fattah al Burhan in Sudan in early July as Sudan’s civil war has moved closer to Ethiopia’s border, which risks destabilizing already turbulent areas of Ethiopia. The timing of the visit highlights Ethiopia’s concern that the Rapid Support Forces’ ongoing offensive against the SAF near Sudan’s border with Ethiopia could stoke ethnic tensions in Ethiopia’s Amhara and Tigray regions and benefit ethno-nationalist militants that are hostile to the Ethiopian government. Ethiopia is also well-connected to the other stakeholders in Sudan’s civil war and is trying to advance multilateral, African-led peace initiatives to stabilize the situation.
Iran Update, July 17, 2024
July 17, 2024 - ISW Press
Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appear to have resumed their attack campaign targeting US forces in Iraq.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 17, 2024
July 17, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian state news outlets editorialized comments by Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev and claimed that he said that the Ukrainian state will no longer exist by 2034, likely to support the Kremlin's efforts to prepare the Russian public for a long war in Ukraine while promising that Russia will complete its objective to destroy Ukrainian statehood within a decade.
Iran Update, July 16, 2024
July 16, 2024 - ISW Press
Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is articulating a foreign policy that is a continuation of the policies of his hardline predecessor even as Pezeshkian attempts to present himself to the West as a "reformist.” Pezeshkian penned an op-ed entitled "My Message to the World” in English-language, Foreign Ministry-affiliated outlet the Tehran Times on July 12. Pezeshkian framed himself as a reformist and reiterated that he ran his presidential campaign “on a platform of reform.” Pezeshkian contradicted his initial statement by reaffirming his commitment to many of the policies of his hardline predecessor, most notably signaling support for continuing former President Ebrahim Raisi’s “neighborhood” policy.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 2024
July 16, 2024 - ISW Press
Ukrainian drone strikes deep within Russia continue to pressure Russia's air defense umbrella and force the Russian military command to prioritize allocating limited air defense assets to cover what it deems to be high-value targets. Satellite imagery collected on May 6 indicates that Russian forces have concentrated at least seven Pantsir-1 medium-range air defense systems around Russian President Vladimir Putin's residence in Valdai, Leningrad Oblast. Ruslan Pukhov, the head of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies and a member of a Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) civilian advisory board, stated on July 16 that such "focal" air defense coverage (static coverage of a singular target) is meaningless at scale because it allows Ukrainian drones to bypass Russian air defense coverage and strike from uncovered directions.
Iran Update, July 15, 2024
July 15, 2024 - ISW Press
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has not yet confirmed whether it killed Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif. The IDF conducted an airstrike in the al Mawasi humanitarian zone on July 13 targeting Deif and Hamas Khan Younis Brigade Commander Rafe Salamah. The IDF confirmed on July 14 that the strike killed Salamah. Hamas officials maintain that Deif is alive but have not provided evidence to back their assertion.