Publications

Belarus Warning Update: Belarusian Opposition Reaches out to Kremlin

August 18, 2020 - ISW Press

1:00 pm EDT: Russian President Vladimir Putin warned European leaders to stay out of the Belarus crisis on August 18 to consolidate Russian management of the situation. French President Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel discussed Belarus with Putin in separate calls the morning of August 18. Putin warned both leaders that Russia would not accept any “external attempts” to interfere in Belarus or pressure Lukashenko. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov additionally called German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and reiterated similar talking points. The Kremlin will attempt to dominate likely negotiations over a potential transition government in Belarus and block any European involvement.

Belarus Warning Update: Telegram Channel NEXTA Provokes Turning Point in Belarus Protests

August 17, 2020 - ISW Press

7:00 pm EDT: The Telegram channel that has been organizing the protests called for demonstrators to march on a detention facility in Minsk on August 17. NEXTA - a Poland-based telegram channel which emerged as the primary organizer of protests – published a message at 9:00 am local time calling for protesters to gather in Independence Square at 6:00 pm local time – the latest yet start time for protests, which have so far begun between noon and 2:00 pm. NEXTA instructed protesters to progress past the Volodarskogo Street pre-trial detention facility (where most detained protesters have been processed) to the Akrestsin street detention facility (where the majority of alleged torture of protesters has occurred) by 8:00 pm. NEXTA called for doctors and journalists to then enter the facility to interview tortured detainees and “show on air what is happening there.”

ISW-CTP Geopolitical Risk Assessments: April-July 2020

August 17, 2020 - ISW Press

 

America’s national security is threatened by the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences, which present new opportunities for US adversaries, including Russia, China, and Iran, to gain political and military advantage. The second- and third-order effects of the pandemic, including the severe global economic downturn, have also accelerated pre-existing trends toward disorder and state failure that threaten American interests.

Belarus Warning Update: Russia and Belarus Launch Military Exercises

August 17, 2020 - ISW Press

5:00 pm EDT: Russia and Belarus are conducting military exercises in multiple locations. Izvestia reported the Russian combined arms army (CAA), presumably the 6th CAA, of the Western Military District began large-scale exercises with 3,500 personnel in Leningrad Oblast on August 17. It is unclear whether these exercises were prescheduled or snap. TASS reported the Southern Military District began pre-planned Collective Security Treaty Organization (CTSO) rapid reaction force exercises in Astrakhan, Russia, on August 17. More than 1,000 servicemen are participating in the drill, including Belarusian forces. The Kremlin may use the exercises to set conditions to insert Russian forces into Belarus. Belarus began its own exercises in Grodno near the polish border on August 17. Tank, missile, artillery, air, and air defense units from Belarus, including the 6th and 11th mechanized brigades and 103rd airborne brigade, are participating in the exercises. Some of the units relocated from Vitebsk to Grodno for the exercises on August 15. Unconfirmed reports from local residents on social media suggested that Russian forces were concentrating on the Russian side of the border opposite Vitebsk. There is no evidence of an increase of Russian force presence inside Belarus as of August 17. Lukashenko reframed his statements that he would only ask for Russian help “in the event of external military threats,” implying a deployment of Russian forces would occur in the context of a confrontation with NATO rather than as an internal Union State issue. Continuous accusations by Lukashenko and the Kremlin that NATO is stoking the protests indicate that Lukashenko may take continued demonstrations as a pretext for requesting Russian aid against an ”external enemy.”

Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko Seems to Lack Strategy as Peaceful Protests Grow

August 16, 2020 - ISW Press

Mass protests across Belarus against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko overshadowed a pro-Lukashenko rally in Minsk on August 16. Over 120,000 Belarusians joined a planned 2:00 pm Sunday afternoon rally in Minsk – though most protesters did not gather until later in the afternoon. Rallies additionally grew in other cities across Belarus. The protest movement remains peaceful and largely coordinated through independent Telegram channels as of August 16. Demonstrators are calling for Lukashenko to step down and re-run the August 9 election. Protests since August 10 have so far dissipated by dark, and protesters are slowly returning home as of 9:00 pm local Belarus time. Belarusian security forces did not impede the Sunday protests.

Belarus Warning Update: Belarusian President Lukashenko Reaches Agreement with the Kremlin for Russian Intervention

August 15, 2020 - ISW Press

4:00 pm EDT: Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko and the Kremlin have reached an agreement for a potential Russian intervention to crush protests. Lukashenko stated Russia is prepared to intervene in Belarus in a meeting with the Belarusian general staff the evening of August 15: Lukashenko stated "we have an agreement with the Russian Federation in the framework of the Union State and the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization). These moments are fitting to this pact. We agreed that at the first request there will be comprehensive assistance provided to ensure the security of the Republic of Belarus.” Belarusian state media edited its reporting on Lukashenko’s statement at 9:45 pm local time to insert the comment that Lukashenko would only invite Russian forces “in the event of external military threats.” Lukashenko will likely increasingly frame the protests as foreign-backed to legitimize calling for a Russian intervention and in a continuing effort to separate protest leaders from the mass of the Belarusian people.

Belarus Warning Update: Russian Hybrid Intervention into Belarus is Likely Imminent

August 15, 2020 - ISW Press

12:00 pm EDT: A Russian hybrid intervention into Belarus to support Belarussian president Lukashenko is likely imminent. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had a phone call on August 15 to discuss the situation in Belarus. Putin thanked Lukashenko for returning 32 detained Wagner personnel on August 14. The Kremlin’s readout of the call stated “all problems that have arisen will be resolved soon” and characterized the protests as “destructive forces” trying to harm the Union State. A Kremlin intervention would likely consist of Russian forces in unmarked uniforms supporting crackdowns on protesters. The Kremlin has not previously characterized the protests in Belarus as destructive. Kremlin-linked media outlets reported neutrally and slightly sympathetically towards protests in Belarus as of August 14.

Belarus Warning Update: Russia May Send "Little Green Men" to Belarus

August 14, 2020 - ISW Press

Russia may send irregular forces into Belarus to quash growing protests against Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko. A senior Kremlin media official’s August 14 statement supporting such a move is a significant inflection in Moscow’s characterization of the protests in Belarus. It could be part of a new Russian information campaign to shape conditions for a Russian-backed intervention into Belarus under the pretext of restoring order. A Russian intervention in Belarus that resulted in the stationing of Russian ground forces in the country would dramatically increase the threat to NATO’s ability to protect the Baltic States and mark another advance in Putin’s efforts to regain Russian suzerainty over the former Soviet Union.

Iraq Situation Report: August 5-11, 2020

August 14, 2020 - ISW Press

Iran’s proxy militia network in Iraq is accelerating its attacks on US facilities and Iraqi contractors working with the US-led Coalition, undermining Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s attempts to demonstrate strength and stability ahead of the next round of the US-Iraq Strategic Dialogue. Likely Iranian proxies claimed two real and one false IED attack on Iraqi contractors and likely conducted two rocket attacks on the US Embassy. The proxies aim to discourage Iraqi cooperation with the US-led Coalition and make Kadhimi appear weak ahead of the Dialogue. Kadhimi will likely struggle to constrain militia activity in the leadup to the next round of the Dialogue on August 20, which will cover a variety of mutual interests including US-Iraqi security cooperation and the future of US forces in Iraq.

Russia in Review: Turmoil in Belarus Benefits the Kremlin

August 14, 2020 - ISW Press

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will likely survive current mass protests but will emerge substantially more vulnerable to Russian pressure. Lukashenko claims to have won the August 9 election with 80 percent of the vote, sparking mass protests. Lukashenko is successfully containing the demonstrations and forced leading opposition candidate Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya to flee to Lithuania and denounce the protests. Lukashenko’s domestic position is nevertheless weakened by these unprecedented displays of public opposition, and his ability to resist pressure from the Kremlin is reduced.

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