Iran Update, September 20, 2024
September 20, 2024 - ISW Press
Israel appears to be exploiting disarray in Lebanese Hezbollah in order to inflict further damage upon the group.
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Publications
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20, 2024
September 20, 2024 - ISW Press
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced two new loan mechanisms worth up to 45 billion euros (roughly $50 billion) and 35 billion euros (roughly $39 billion) respectively during a visit to Kyiv on September 20.
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, September 20, 2024
September 20, 2024 - ISW Press
The CCP framed the corruption case against Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) founder Ko Wen-je as part of a “Green Terror” campaign by Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to persecute “dissidents.”
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19, 2024
September 19, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly declined a request from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to offset Russian losses by declaring another mobilization wave in spring 2024 likely to avoid political costs associated with involuntary reserve call-ups. Putin has since remained committed to his crypto mobilization campaign, constraining Russia's mobilization potential
Iran Update, September 19, 2024
September 19, 2024 - ISW Press
Israeli sources reported on September 19 that Israeli officials are deciding whether the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will conduct an offensive into Lebanon. Hezbollah will almost certainly not cease rocket fire into northern Israel, which will necessitate an Israeli operation if Israel hopes to achieve its stated objectives in northern Israel.
Africa File, September 19, 2024: JNIM Strikes Bamako; Hungary Enters the Sahel; Ethiopia-Somalia Proxy Risks
September 19, 2024 - ISW Press
Jama’at Nusrat al Islam (JNIM) attacked the main military air base and a gendarmerie base in Bamako, its first attacks in the capital since 2015. JNIM likely conducted the attacks to undermine the legitimacy of the Malian junta and reduce both elite and popular support for the junta.
Israel is Defeating Hamas, But Destroying Hamas Will Require a Post-War Vision
September 19, 2024 - ISW Press
Translating the defeat of Hamas’ brigades into the destruction of the organization will require additional Israeli or international measures to prevent Hamas from recovering. Hamas’ military and political destruction requires the articulation of a political end state and the application of the necessary means to achieve that end state. Israel officially seeks to destroy Hamas as both a political and military organization, not merely to defeat its military wing.
Iran Update, September 18, 2024
September 18, 2024 - ISW Press
Israel continued to destroy Lebanese Hezbollah tactical communications devices on September 18.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 18, 2024
September 18, 2024 - ISW Press
Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone strike against a Russian missile and ammunition storage facility near Toropets, Tver Oblast on September 18. Continued Ukrainian strikes against rear Russian logistics facilities within Russia will generate wider operational pressures on the Russian military beyond the individual destruction of ammunition stockpiles and logistics facilities.
Iran Update, September 17, 2024
September 17, 2024 - ISW Press
Israel simultaneously detonated thousands of pagers used by Lebanese Hezbollah members across Lebanon and Syria on September 17. Lebanese officials reported that around 2,800 individuals were injured, though some reports suggest that the number is closer to 4,000, most of whom are Hezbollah members. Israel reportedly executed the attack by planting one-to-two ounces of explosive material and remote triggers inside a batch of Taiwanese-made pagers en route to Lebanon. Hezbollah had ordered the pagers to communicate across its ranks, as Hezbollah Secretary General ordered group members to limit cellphone usage in order to avoid Israeli detection. Hezbollah responded to the attack by blaming Israel and vowing to retaliate.