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The People’s Republic of China (PRC) accused Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan) President Lai Ching-te on October 10 of promoting separatism and inciting cross-strait confrontation in his National Day speech.
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened senior Saudi officials, warning that the Axis of Resistance would attack Saudi energy assets and infrastructure if Saudi Arabia supports an Israeli attack on Iran, according to anonymous Iranian officials speaking to Reuters
The FARDC and allied militias launched an offensive operation on September 26 against a Rwandan rebel group in eastern DRC. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) may have launched the offensive against the Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR) to advance ongoing peace talks aiming to end the conflict in the eastern DRC among the DRC, Rwanda, and their proxies. An anti-FDLR offensive has been a key Rwandan demand in peace talks because Rwanda’s Tutsi-dominated government views the FDLR as a threat.
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Shahed drone storage facility in Krasnodar Krai and an ammunition warehouse in the Republic of Adygea on October 9 and 10.
Israeli leaders have continued deliberating over how to respond to the Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with the Israeli Security Cabinet to discuss potential Israeli responses on October 8 and will meet with the cabinet again for further discussion on October 10.
The Russian military command has likely ordered Russian forces to conduct a relatively high tempo of mechanized assaults in Ukraine to pursue significant tactical advances before muddy ground conditions in Fall 2024 constrain mechanized maneuver.
Israeli political leaders indicated that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed Hashem Safi ed Din—the presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah—in an airstrike on Beirut on October 4. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video statement on October 8 that Israel killed “Nasrallah himself, and Nasrallah’s replacement, and the replacement of his replacement,” which Israeli media has framed as confirmation of the killing of Safi ed Din. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant similarly said on October 8 that the IDF probably killed Safi ed Din. IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, on the other hand, said that the IDF is still investigating the results of the airstrike targeting Safi ed Din.
The IDF deployed a third division—the 91st Division—to southern Lebanon on October 7 for “focused and delimited” ground operations against Lebanese Hezbollah.
Ukrainian forces struck an oil terminal in occupied Feodosia, Crimea on the night of October 6 to 7. Russian authorities announced an "unprecedented" cyberattack against Russian state media infrastructure on October 7.
Military conditions are being set in the Gaza Strip that could lead to the defeat of Hamas, but these conditions will fail to achieve an enduring end to the war without a political solution. The military defeat of Hamas is an essential precondition for the establishment of a new government in Gaza that will be willing and able to make and keep an enduring peace. Defeat is a temporary military effect, however. Israel must cement Hamas’ defeat by setting a clear and obtainable political endstate for this war, and the US and its regional partners must also recognize that a ceasefire in the current conditions will virtually ensure the renewal of Hamas attacks on Israel and future major war in the Gaza Strip.