 |
 |
The ANSF is unprepared to counter the Taliban militants’ summer campaign. Northern warlords will take advantage of Taliban militants’ gains to establish themselves as security providers and gain leverage against the fragile National Unity Government.
ISW last published its Afghanistan Partial Threat Assessment on February 23, 2016.
Political blocs continue to jockey for influence over the final composition of the Council of Ministers (CoM) amid increased threats to Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi’s position.
Aleppo Province stands to become the focal point of a new round of violence in the Syrian Civil War even as the Geneva III Talks to end the conflict are scheduled to resume on April 13. Continued violations of an ongoing ‘cessation of hostilities’ by both pro-regime and opposition factions have fueled the largest outbreak of violence in northern Syria since the agreement went into effect on February 27, threatening to drive a wider breakdown of the tenuous ceasefire.
ISIS conducted a wave of explosive attacks across Iraq aimed at disrupting the forward operations of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). Coalition-trained elements of the ISF, supported by local forces, converged on Hit District in western Anbar and the village of al-Nasr, west of Makhmur, conducting operations aimed at recapturing areas on key ground lines of communication.
ISIS continued to pursue ongoing campaigns both regionally and further abroad throughout March. The group carried out a spectacular, sophisticated terror attack in Brussels on March 22. The attack, which was unprecedented in Belgium, is part of ISIS’s ongoing campaign to attack and polarize the West, sowing disorder to make way for future expansion to a global Caliphate.
ISIS continued to pursue ongoing campaigns both regionally and further abroad throughout March. The group carried out a spectacular, sophisticated terror attack in Brussels on March 22. The attack, which was unprecedented in Belgium, is part of ISIS’s ongoing campaign to attack and polarize the West, sowing disorder to make way for future expansion to a global Caliphate. The group also continued to demonstrate its intent to remain and expand in North Africa by establishing lines of communication between the group’s Libyan stronghold and ISIS-linked groups in Tunisia and Algeria.
Since the publication of ISW’s last ISIS sanctuary map on March 3, 2016, ISIS lost control of the Syrian city of Palmyra to pro-regime forces. Additionally, Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) launched an operation on March 12 to recapture Hit district, and as of March 31 the ISF recaptured the subdistricts of al-Muhammadi, south of the town of Hit, and Kubaisa, west of Hit.
Since the publication of ISW’s last ISIS sanctuary map on March 3, 2016, ISIS lost control of the Syrian city of Palmyra to pro-regime forces. Additionally, Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) launched an operation on March 12 to recapture Hit district, and as of March 31 the ISF recaptured the subdistricts of al-Muhammadi, south of the town of Hit, and Kubaisa, west of Hit.
Pressure continues to mount on Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi to reshuffle the cabinet. Abadi misses Sadrist deadline leading to Muqtada al-Sadr staging a sit-in in the Green Zone.
Pro-regime forces seized Palmyra as well as the adjacent Palmyra Airbase in Eastern Homs Province on March 27 after ISIS withdrew from the city, completing an operation that began on March 7 with the aim of recapturing the strategic crossroads.