Publications

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25, 2024

July 25, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces blunted one of the largest Russian mechanized assaults in Ukraine since October 2023 in western Donetsk Oblast on July 24. Geolocated footage published on July 24 shows that Ukrainian forces stopped a reinforced battalion size Russian mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City) after Russian forces advanced up to the southeastern outskirts of the settlement. A Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kurakhove direction reported that Russian forces attacked simultaneously with 11 tanks, 45 armored combat vehicles, a rare "Terminator" armored fighting vehicle (of which Russia has reportedly manufactured only 23 as of December 2023), 12 motorcycles, and roughly 200 personnel from several tactical directions at dawn on July 24.

Africa File, July 25, 2024: Turkish Inroads in Niger; al Shabaab’s Continued SVBIED Threat

July 25, 2024 - ISW Press

Turkey is strengthening its long-standing partnership with Niger across various sectors, which could result in Turkey competing with China and Russia over access to resources and military influence. Turkey also has opportunities to increase economic and military cooperation with Burkina Faso and Mali, but Russia’s larger presence in both countries will pose a greater obstacle.

Iran Update, July 24, 2024

July 24, 2024 - ISW Press

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint meeting of the US Congress on July 24. Netanyahu described his vision for “a demilitarized and deradicalized” post-war Gaza Strip but did not offer details about how to achieve this vision.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24, 2024

July 24, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that the Russian military has significantly increased its manpower and materiel commitments to the war in Ukraine over the last two and a half years, but Syrskyi's statement is not indicative of a sudden increase in the Russian military's presence in Ukraine and is instead representative of the manpower and material disadvantage that Ukrainian forces have faced for over two years.

Iran Update, July 23, 2024

July 23, 2024 - ISW Press

Hamas, Fatah and other unspecified Palestinian political factions agreed on a vision for post-war governance of the Gaza Strip on July 23 during “intra-Palestinian reconciliation” talks in Beijing. The factions signed a joint declaration setting out their intention to form “a temporary national unity government” responsible for governing the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. The agreement stipulates that a government partly influenced by Hamas would rule the Gaza Strip and West Bank until elections could be held at an unspecified future date. The declaration reportedly does not address what party maintains security control over the Gaza Strip, and Hamas has been adamant it will keep its military wing. Hamas, Fatah, and China have not disclosed the full text of the declaration at the time of this writing.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23, 2024

July 23, 2024 - ISW Press

The Russian State Duma proposed an amendment that would allow commanders to punish subordinates for using personal communications and navigation devices at the frontline, prompting significant milblogger backlash and highlighting how Russian forces continue to struggle with command and control (C2) issues and overreliance on insecure technologies to conduct combat operations in Ukraine. The Russian State Duma Defense Committee announced its support on July 23 for an amendment that will make wearing "gadgets" (personal phones and electronic devices) in the combat zone a "gross disciplinary offense" and will allow Russian commanders to arrest servicemembers in violation of such offenses without a court order and detain violating servicemembers for up to 10 days.

Africa File Special Edition: One Year After Niger’s Coup

July 23, 2024 - ISW Press

Niger’s junta has significantly altered its international and regional partnerships away from the West in its first year of power. The Nigerien presidential guards launched a coup against democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum on July 26, 2023. Niger’s other security forces fell in line over the next 24 hours despite the largely isolated initial motivations of the junta leader Abdirahmane Tiani.

Iran Update, July 22, 2024

July 22, 2024 - ISW Press

The modified Houthi drone that struck Tel Aviv flew at least 2,600 kilometers, demonstrating how Iran and its partners have expanded the geographic range of their weapon systems to target the eastern Mediterranean and other areas. The modified Sammad-3 drone traveled east-to-west from Yemen, crossing into Eritrea before turning north and flying through Sudan and Egypt and then turning east to target Tel Aviv from the west.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22, 2024

July 22, 2024 - ISW Press

Russia and North Korea are pursuing increased cooperation in the judicial sphere. Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov arrived in Pyongyang, North Korea and met with his North Korean counterpart Kim Chol Won on July 22, marking the first time that a Russian Prosecutor General has visited North Korea.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21, 2024

July 21, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian State Duma Chairperson Vyacheslav Volodin recently visited Nicaragua and Cuba, likely as part of ongoing Kremlin efforts to project its influence in the Western hemisphere and rally states against the US and the West. Volodin's visits to Nicaragua and Cuba immediately followed Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko's visits to Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua, during which Golovchenko signed multiple bilateral economic and trade agreements, possibly as part of Russian schemes that use Belarus to help Russia evade Western sanctions.

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