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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed in February 2015 that ISIS would pursue simultaneous campaigns to defend territory in Iraq and Syria, to foster affiliates in the region, and to polarize populations globally. Events from the March-May 2015 reporting period demonstrate that ISIS is now executing this multifaceted strategy.
The contest for the Baiji Oil Renery is accelerating as ISIS cut off supply routes previously used by the ISF and occupied positions within the facility.
ISW is issuing a warning about an imminent Russian-backed separatist o_ensive in eastern Ukraine on or around Victory Day, May 9, 2015.
During his current visit to Washington, the president of Iraqi Kurdistan, Masoud Barzani reiterated his desire for an independent Kurdistan. Similarly, the U.S. reiterated its desire for a “united, federal, and democratic Iraq,” signaling that it does not support Kurdish autonomy.
Violence escalates in Syrian-Lebanese border region. Has Hezbollah decided to just contain JN or is there a “Battle of Qalamoun” coming? Also, regional actors appear willing to increase support to rebel groups with rumors of anti-aircraft capabilities coming.
The provision in the House Armed Service Committee’s draft defense bill that would permit the U.S. to directly distribute arms to Iraq’s Sunni and Kurdish communities continued to generate negative reactions in Baghdad.
The Iraqi government has yet to launch major operations in Anbar. Meanwhile, ISIS is increasing the rate of its terrorist attacks in the capital.
ISW has changed the status of the border crossings at al-Waleed and Trebil to under watch.
Russian-backed separatists intensified attacks on Ukrainian forces for the third week in a row, signaling their complete abandonment of the February 12 ceasefire agreement.
Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) and rebel forces seized control of the Nasib border crossing with Jordan in Dera’a Province on April 2, 2015.