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Amidst ongoing low-level fighting between Ukrainian and separatist forces, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko signed a law on March 18 which would grant limited autonomy to many areas under separatist control.
The role of Iranian-backed militias is introducing an obstacle for the Iraqi Government in its effort to reclaim the territories that fell out of its control. Since the fall of Mosul in 2014, these militias have played a crucial role in retaking areas from ISIS with minimal support from coalition air power and heavy reliance on Iranian support. The lack of precise coalition targeting is for the first time a limiting factor leading Iraqi commanders to halt the operation to retake Tikrit.
The regime’s claimed downing of an American predator drone may signify regime intent to assert its sovereignty in the context of U.S.-led coalition airstrikes.
Various Iraqi forces are pressuring ISIS on three different fronts, all of which are of strategic importance to the organization. ISIS will therefore likely attempt to escalate its attacks elsewhere to divert the resources of these forces.
The main area of Alam sub-district, NE of Tikrit, was declared retaken from ISIS by the ISF, Iraqi Shi’a militias, and local Iraqi Sunni fighters on March 9. Since then, there have been no reports of clashes in the area to suggest a continued presence of ISIS or a concrete effort by ISIS to retake Alam.
While Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko announced that both the separatists and Ukrainian Anti-Terror Operation (ATO) forces had withdrawn a large amount of heavy weaponry in accordance with the February 12 ceasefire agreement, shelling and clashes persisted in several key areas across the frontline.
Key Take-away: The threat of large-scale attacks in North Sinai by ISIS’s Wilayat Sinai is elevated as of March 12, 2015, but this threat is not assessed to directly target the upcoming Egypt Economic Development Conference in Sharm al-Sheikh scheduled for March 13-15, 2015 due to heightened security in South Sinai. Wilayat Sinai may, however, conduct attacks elsewhere during the conference in order to portray instability and derail economic and political opportunities for the government of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
The operation to retake Tikrit city appears to have begun.
JN Designates Main Effort in Dera’a Despite Airstrike Targeting JN Leadership in Idlib: JN appears to have designated a main effort by deploying a significant convoy of military reinforcements
Very recent reports indicate that Alam, an area of Iraqi Sunni majority that showed early signs of resistance to ISIS, has been re-taken by the combined forces allied with the Iraqi government.