Publications

Africa File, March 28, 2024: Islamic State Resurgent in Mozambique; al Shabaab’s Ramadan Offensive

March 28, 2024 - ISW Press

ISMP is massing forces, temporarily holding and governing territory, and operating across a geographic scope unseen since at least 2022. ISMP began increasing its rate of attacks in December 2023 and maintained a higher rate in January and February 2024 as part of the Islamic State’s global “Kill Them Where You Find Them” attack campaign. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Database (ACLED) recorded that ISMP has initiated 57 attacks since December 19, 2023. This rate is more than double the roughly nine attacks per month it averaged from January to November 2023. The group carried out six attacks in the first half of March, putting it on pace to surpass its monthly average in 2023 despite its offensive peaking in February. The group has sustained this increased activity despite Mozambique’s annual rainy season from January to March, when adverse weather conditions have historically caused attacks to decrease.

Africa File, April 4, 2024: Mali and Russia Explore Mali’s Mineral Wealth; Niger Plays the Field; the Kremlin’s Red Sea Ambitions in Eritrea

April 4, 2024 - ISW Press

Mali and Russia are increasingly cooperating on mineral extraction to boost both countries’ revenues. Russian companies have made several road-map agreements with Mali for gold refinery construction, geological mapping, and civil nuclear power cooperation since March 25. The Malian and Russian governments also signed several cooperation agreements on oil, gas, uranium, and lithium production on March 31. The signing of these cooperation agreements is a step forward in implementing several memoranda of understanding and high-level discussions held between the two countries in 2023 and 2024.

Africa File, April 25, 2024: IS Somalia Expansion Benefits IS Global Network

April 25, 2024 - ISW Press

The Islamic State claimed that its Somali affiliate has expanded control over mountainous areas of northern Somalia at the expense of al Qaeda’s Somali affiliate al Shabaab, which would strengthen the regional IS office’s ability to support global Islamic State activity, including funding external attack plots in Asia and the West through the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP).

Africa File, April 18, 2024: Chad is the Kremlin’s Next Target in the Sahel

April 18, 2024 - ISW Press

The Chadian junta may begin aligning with the Russian-backed Sahelian juntas and Russia itself, which would boost Russia’s long-standing goal of increasing its influence in the country.

Africa File Special Edition: Russia’s Africa Corps Arrives in Niger. What’s Next?

April 12, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian Africa Corps soldiers deployed to Niger on April 12, which will challenge US efforts to remain in Niger in the immediate term—undermining the West’s counterterrorism posture in West and North Africa—and create long-term opportunities for the Kremlin to create conventional and irregular threats that strategically pressure Europe. The Africa Corps contingent in Niger will likely remain small in the coming months because it lacks the capacity for a bigger deployment due to recruitment issues. This small footprint will enable Russia to strengthen its influence in Niger and consolidate its logistical network in Africa without significantly affecting the rapidly escalating al Qaeda and Islamic State insurgencies in Niger. Greater Russian influence and military presence in Niger in the coming years will create several future opportunities for the Kremlin to strategically threaten Europe with energy blackmail, migration influxes, and conventional military threats.

Africa File Special Edition: Niger Cuts the United States for Russia and Iran

March 21, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian mercenary bases in northern Niger would create an opportunity for the Kremlin to deploy drones in the area to threaten NATO’s southern flank in the future.

Afghanistan’s Fraught Political Transition and Implications for Its Security Beyond 2014

August 12, 2014 - Institute for the Study of War

On Saturday, June 14, Afghanistan held its second round, run-off presidential election since no presidential candidate was able to secure at least 50 percent of the votes in the first-round election on April 5. In that first contest, the two front-runners, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and Dr. Ashraf Ghani, won 45 percent and 31.56 percent of the vote, respectively.

Afghanistan’s Fallujah? (Center for Defense Studies)

December 1, 2009

Jeff Dressler discusses likely operations in Marjeh in a post at the AEI Center for Defense Studies.

Afghanistan: A Tale of Two Withdrawals

August 20, 2019 - ISW Press

Conditions in Afghanistan are worse today than they were when the Soviets withdrew, even if the insurgency is weaker. No actors share a compelling vision for the future of Afghanistan. No faction is strong enough to exert full control over the country. As the U.S. and NATO prepare for a drawdown, they must be clear-eyed about the likely outcome.

Afghanistan: 5,000 Troops are not Enough

April 23, 2014 - Institute for the Study of War

The White House is dropping strong hints that the number of American troops in Afghanistan after 2014 may fall below 10,000, possibly even below 5,000. Unnamed White House officials suggested to the press that lower levels of U.S. support to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) will be sufficient to contain future Taliban threats.

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