Publications

Turkey's Erdogan Pivots to Target U.S.-Backed Force in Syria

January 16, 2018 - ISW Press

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is preparing to attack America’s local partner in northern Syria on two fronts along the Turkish border. Russia and the Bashar al Assad regime support his planned operation, which could constrain the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to the eastern bank of the Euphrates River and possibly neutralize American plans to build an SDF-linked “border security force.”

Turkey Threatens New Attacks in Syria, Iraq

March 20, 2018 - ISW Press

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to conduct military operations across six locations in eastern Syria and Iraq following the Syrian Kurdish withdrawal from Afrin City in northwest Syria. Russia and Iran seek to use Turkey to undermine the U.S. and may encourage Turkey to prioritize operations in areas that would undermine American interests.

Turkey Reinforces Positions in Greater Idlib to Pressure Russia into Negotiations

October 7, 2020 - ISW Press

Key Takeaway: Events since ISW assessed that Turkey and Russia may have reached a deal on September 16 indicate negotiations faltered. Turkish forces are reinforcing their military positions in opposition-held Idlib as means of exerting pressure on Russia in order to obtain a favorable negotiated settlement. Turkey and Russia will likely continue to escalate while avoiding direct military confrontation in an attempt to gain leverage in future negotiations.

Turkey Prepares Offensive Against Syrian Democratic Forces in Manbij

February 28, 2017 - Chris Kozak

An open conflict will likely erupt imminently between Turkey and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the town of Manbij in Northern Syria.

Turkey May Leverage Syrian Proxies for Afghanistan Mission

July 20, 2021 - Ezgi Yazici

There are increasing reports of Turkey’s plans to recruit Syrian fighters for deployment to Afghanistan as Ankara finalizes a deal to secure the Kabul International Airport. Turkish officials may be in talks with at least six Turkish-backed Syrian factions to prepare an initial round of 2,000 Syrians as private contractors for deployment to Afghanistan. Reporting is still limited as of July 20. Ankara’s deployment of Syrian proxies to expand the Turkish footprint and offset casualty risks for the Turkish Armed Forces in Afghanistan would be consistent with recent Turkish military behavior in Libya and Azerbaijan. A long-term Turkish presence in Afghanistan with the risk of Taliban attacks may not serve Ankara’s strategic interests at home or abroad in the long term, however.

Turkey May Launch New Ground Offensive against US-Backed Forces in Syria

April 28, 2017 - Jennifer Cafarella

Key Takeaway: Turkey’s President Erdogan is trying to coerce President Trump into shifting American support from Kurdish forces toward Turkey’s proxies in Syria, which include al Qaeda-linked elements. Erdogan may launch a new ground operation into Syria in order to create ground realities that could force the U.S. to reconsider his demands.

Turkey Juggles Relationships after Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

February 26, 2022 - ISW Press

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is calling for a decisive NATO response against Russia after the Kremlin began a large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Turkey has been prioritizing its bourgeoning defense and diplomatic partnership with Ukraine in recent years—an action that the Kremlin perceives as a challenge to its sphere of influence. Ukraine is not the first theater of conflict where Turkey and Russia have opposing interests, which they often have been able to compartmentalize. Turkey has challenged Russia’s sphere of influence in various theaters—including Libya, Central Asia, Syria, and the Caucasus—while maintaining its close coordination with Russia in its efforts to diversify its relations toward non-NATO states. However, Ukraine is likely the most significant challenge to date to Turkey’s bid to balance its NATO membership with its fragile partnership with Russia. Turkey has become increasingly reliant on Russian cooperation in various conflicts and key industries like energy and tourism.

Turkey in Review: September 27-October 12

October 15, 2021 - Ezgi Yazici


Turkey’s Balancing Act between Russia and the United States Falters

By Ezgi Yazici

Turkey in Review: October 29 – November 17, 2021

November 19, 2021 - Ezgi Yazici

Turkey likely abandoned its plans for an incursion into Syria after a significant military buildup in October. Turkey and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) planned, signaled, and prepared for a Turkish military incursion into northern Syria in late October after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for the military operation on October 11. The incursion would have been Turkey’s fourth into Syria and targeted the Kurdish-majority autonomous region controlled by the US-partnered Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). SDF commander Mazloum Abdi told al-Monitor on November 9 that SDF forces expected a Turkish military campaign on November 5. Turkey’s recent military mobilization was the largest in northeastern Syria since its most recent incursion in October 2019, indicating likely genuine preparations for an incursion and not simply posturing. However, the social media reports of Turkish military reinforcements and SNA statements on an “upcoming incursion” came to an end by October 31. Turkey likely abandoned plans by early November.

Turkey in Review: November 19-December 6, 2021

December 9, 2021 - ISW Press

Turkey Seeks to Mend Ties with the United Arab Emirates: Turkey and the United Arab Emirates normalized bilateral relations after a decade of tensions. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and United Arab Emirates (UAE) Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ) met for the first time since 2012 in Ankara, Turkey, on November 24, 2021. Turkish and Emirati officials signed several cooperation agreements, including agreements to facilitate new Emirati investments into Turkey’s weakening economy. The Erdogan-MBZ meeting followed months of high-level engagements since Emirati Foreign Minister Anwar Gargash expressed interest in improving relations with Ankara in January 2021. Turkey and the UAE’s opposing interests in Libya, Syria, and the eastern Mediterranean have strained their relations over the past decade, as has Turkey’s cultivation of close ties with rival Qatar.

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