Publications

Africa File Special Edition: Russia’s Africa Corps Arrives in Niger. What’s Next?

April 12, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian Africa Corps soldiers deployed to Niger on April 12, which will challenge US efforts to remain in Niger in the immediate term—undermining the West’s counterterrorism posture in West and North Africa—and create long-term opportunities for the Kremlin to create conventional and irregular threats that strategically pressure Europe. The Africa Corps contingent in Niger will likely remain small in the coming months because it lacks the capacity for a bigger deployment due to recruitment issues. This small footprint will enable Russia to strengthen its influence in Niger and consolidate its logistical network in Africa without significantly affecting the rapidly escalating al Qaeda and Islamic State insurgencies in Niger. Greater Russian influence and military presence in Niger in the coming years will create several future opportunities for the Kremlin to strategically threaten Europe with energy blackmail, migration influxes, and conventional military threats.

Africa File Special Edition: Niger Cuts the United States for Russia and Iran

March 21, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian mercenary bases in northern Niger would create an opportunity for the Kremlin to deploy drones in the area to threaten NATO’s southern flank in the future.

Afghanistan’s Fraught Political Transition and Implications for Its Security Beyond 2014

August 12, 2014 - Institute for the Study of War

On Saturday, June 14, Afghanistan held its second round, run-off presidential election since no presidential candidate was able to secure at least 50 percent of the votes in the first-round election on April 5. In that first contest, the two front-runners, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and Dr. Ashraf Ghani, won 45 percent and 31.56 percent of the vote, respectively.

Afghanistan’s Fallujah? (Center for Defense Studies)

December 1, 2009

Jeff Dressler discusses likely operations in Marjeh in a post at the AEI Center for Defense Studies.

Afghanistan: A Tale of Two Withdrawals

August 20, 2019 - ISW Press

Conditions in Afghanistan are worse today than they were when the Soviets withdrew, even if the insurgency is weaker. No actors share a compelling vision for the future of Afghanistan. No faction is strong enough to exert full control over the country. As the U.S. and NATO prepare for a drawdown, they must be clear-eyed about the likely outcome.

Afghanistan: 5,000 Troops are not Enough

April 23, 2014 - Institute for the Study of War

The White House is dropping strong hints that the number of American troops in Afghanistan after 2014 may fall below 10,000, possibly even below 5,000. Unnamed White House officials suggested to the press that lower levels of U.S. support to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) will be sufficient to contain future Taliban threats.

Afghanistan's Powerbrokers Prepare for 2019 Presidential Elections

March 9, 2018 - ISW Press

Afghanistan’s powerbrokers are in the early stages of an intense competition as they prepare for the planned 2019 presidential election. The multi-month disagreement between President Ashraf Ghani and warlord and long-time Balkh Province Governor Mohammad Atta Noor over the latter’s governorship is the first stage of a much larger battle between the two politicians for the presidency.

Afghanistan's Ethno-Linguistic Groups

May 19, 2009 - Institute for the Study of War

ISW's most recent map of Afghanistan indicates the locations of ethno-linguistic groups and their representation in Afghanistan's largest cities.

Afghanistan Warning Update: IS-KP in Afghanistan is Expanding Faster than Anticipated

October 27, 2021 - Peter Mills

Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP) is expanding its support zones and attack zones across Afghanistan as part of a campaign to undermine and replace the Taliban government. Most IS-KP attacks target Taliban fighters and officials in Nangarhar and Kunar Provinces. The presence of IS-KP propaganda materials indicates that IS-KP is expanding in northern and southern Afghanistan. Bombings at major Shi’a mosques in Kunduz on October 8 and Kandahar on October 15 indicate that IS-KP is attempting to incite sectarian conflict in Afghanistan. Taliban land expropriations from largely Shi’a communities to Sunni Taliban fighters are also increasing sectarian tensions. The contradictory efforts to protect these communities while redistributing their land will complicate the Taliban’s efforts to pose as a defender of Afghanistan’s Shi’a. If IS-KP continues to expand and strengthen, it could develop havens that enable it to conduct attacks outside Afghanistan.

Afghanistan Topographical Map

January 17, 2012 - Institute for the Study of War

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