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President Bashar al-Assad’s regime held parliamentary elections in early May in an effort to create a narrative of democratic transition and to offer fence-sitters the belief that peaceful reform was possible.
This report provides detailed information on the diverse groupings of the Syrian political opposition in order to inform the international community’s response to the conflict. It distinguishes between the expatriate political opposition and the grassroots protest movement operating on the ground in Syria.
This report examines the increasing effectiveness of Syria’s armed opposition, explains how responsible provincial-level military structures have emerged, and considers how uncoordinated external support could compound existing fractures within the opposition.
This report provides detailed information on Syria’s armed opposition movement, highlighting where structure exists within the movement and where Syria’s rebels lack organization.
Turkey may have agreed to cede control of territory in southern Idlib to pro-Assad forces in a meeting with Russia on September 16. If the reports of a deal are true, a pro-Assad offensive is likely imminent. Turkish-backed opposition forces and al Qaeda linked elements may fight back against advancing Russian-backed regime forces even without Turkish support. Turkey is most likely to cede the territory south of the M4 highway, a zone in which Turkey had already agreed to allow Russian patrols in March but retained forces, including artillery units, that precluded a full regime takeover. ISW warned on March 18 that this situation was likely untenable because al Qaeda-linked forces rejected Russian presence. Turkey could face backlash from al Qaeda-linked elements, local civilians, and even Turkish-backed opposition forces for negotiating away opposition-held territory.
The Syrian opposition in southern Syria has achieved significant gains in recent weeks. The opposition in the north and south now appear to be launching similar, coordinated campaigns to outlast the will of the regime.
With the help of thousands of fighters from Hezbollah, Iran, and Iraq, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has achieved one of his most important military victories in the past two years by forcing the withdrawal of opposition forces from the town of al-Qusayr. Al-Qusayr now also cuts off access to cross-border weapons supplies to the rebels from Lebanon and provides an important staging ground for future efforts by the regime to retake the north and east.
The assassination of Hassan Aboud, the leader of hardline Salafist Ahrar al-Sham and a former associate of al-Qaeda representative Abu Khalid al-Suri, is likely to have major repercussions for the capacity of rebels to coordinate their efforts across fronts.
An assassination campaign against rebel commanders appears to have emerged in western Syria, with at least 12 assassination attempts since the beginning of September 2014.
Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) continues attempts to consolidate control in northern Syria, although its willingness to submit to Shari’a adjudication with other rebel factions in Idlib indicates this may not come at the expense of its relationships with rebel groups.