Publications

Warning: Russia Escalates in Eastern Syria

September 9, 2020 - ISW Press

Russia is scaling up pressure against US forces in eastern Syria. Russia invigorated its effort to provoke fractures within the US local partner, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), in early August through information operations tailored to sow doubt about the SDF’s reliability and the United States’ commitment to Syria. Russia and other pro-regime actors simultaneously scaled up a campaign of harassment of US forces, including rocket attacks on facilities housing US forces and a confrontation with a US patrol on August 25 that concussed four US soldiers. These incidents could indicate that Russia is using kinetic activity to bolster the effect of its information operations in accordance with emerging Russian hybrid warfare doctrine, which ISW will examine in depth in a forthcoming report. The intended target of Russia’s information operation, local tribal elements loosely aligned with the SDF, could perceive the United States’ inability to prevent such attacks as a sign of weakness. In one of the most dangerous scenarios, Russia may further escalate kinetically to provoke a crisis that causes local tribal elements to desert the SDF with the eventual objective of forcing US policymakers to reconsider the US commitment to Syria.

Warning: Putin Remains Dissatisfied with Lukashenko’s Concessions

September 23, 2020 - ISW Press

6:30 pm EDT - Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has not fully capitulated to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desired Union State integration demands in Belarus – yet.

Warning: Militarization of Lukashenko’s Response to Belarusian Protests Increases but Without Violence; Moscow Continues to Set Conditions for Intervention

August 30, 2020 - ISW Press

5:15 pm EDT: Unprecedented Belarusian conventional military deployments and widespread detentions failed to deter mass protests in Minsk on August 30. Over 100,000 protesters marched in Minsk and demonstrated at Lukashenko’s Presidential Palace to demand his resignation on August 30. This was the fourth consecutive Sunday protest in Minsk. Lukashenko deployed a heavy police and conventional military presence in Minsk to block protester access to Independence Square, the original location of the protest, and Lukashenko’s residence. Belarusian riot police’s detained demonstrators early in the morning of August 30 but failed to deter protesters. Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty reported Belarusian authorities detained at least 125 protesters on August 30. after refraining from detaining protesters on August 29 and the August 23 Sunday march. Protests also occurred in other major Belarusian cities including Brest, Grodno, Mogielev, and Gomel. Protesters dispersed from the barricade at Lukashenko’s residence around 6:00 pm Minsk time following heavy rain and hail. Large weekly protests on Sundays will likely continue unless some aspect of the situation changes.

Warning: Lukashenko and NEXTA Apparently Move Toward Confrontation After Sunday Protests

August 23, 2020 - ISW Press

7:00 pm EDT: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko militarized his response to protests the evening of August 23. Lukashenko made a staged propaganda trip to the Presidential Palace in Minsk the evening of August 23. He and his 15-year-old son arrived via helicopter in military gear carrying rifles. Lukashenko briefly toured the barricades around the Presidential Palace and spoke with security personnel, who shouted “we’re with you until the end!” Lukashenko’s press office released a video as he departed Minsk via helicopter in which Lukashenko can be heard commenting “look at how the rats [referring to protesters] scatter.” Belarusian authorities cut internet access in Minsk for the duration of Lukashenko’s visit. Lukashenko’s press secretary issued a statement that Lukashenko was “controlling the situation” and directing security forces (who were predominantly stationary) throughout the day and falsely claimed protesters “literally ran” when security forces deployed. Belarusian security forces did not take any action against protesters on August 23. Lukashenko likely made the trip to frame himself as a strongman in the face of mass protests. Lukashenko will likely increasingly militarize his response to protesters in the coming week.

Warning Update: Turkish Aggression Against Syrian Kurds Threatens to Halt U.S. Anti-ISIS Operations in Syria

February 13, 2017 - Institute for the Study of War

The U.S.-led coalition’s fight against ISIS in Syria is in jeopardy as Turkey threatens an offensive against the U.S.’s primary partner force on the ground, the Syrian Democratic Forces. Turkey has stated its intent to shift its focus from ISIS to the Syrian Kurds after the seizure of the ISIS-held town of al Bab in Northern Aleppo Province, which ISW forecasts is likely in the coming weeks.

Warning Update: The Expansion of ISIS in Northwestern Afghanistan

February 22, 2017 - Caitlin Forrest

ISIS Wilayat Khorasan may be developing a regional powerbase in northwestern Afghanistan. Former Taliban militants operating in the name of ISIS executed international aid workers and held others captive in a prison in Jowzjan Province in February 2017, a step change in ISIS’s operations in Afghanistan.

Warning Update: Russia Prepares to Escalate Military Intervention in Syria

November 4, 2016 - Genevieve Casagrande

Key Takeaway: Russia is preparing to escalate its military operations in Syria in order to tout its standing as a great power, reinforce its claims to be a credible partner against violent extremism, and reinvigorate domestic support for its continued participation in the Syrian Civil War. Russia has set conditions for a major demonstration of its military might following the completion of the latest in a long series of ‘humanitarian pauses’ in Aleppo City set to end on November 4.

Warning Update: Russia May Conduct a Chemical or Radiological False-Flag Attack as a Pretext for Greater Aggression against Ukraine

March 9, 2022 - ISW Press

Key takeaway: The Kremlin has set informational conditions to blame Ukraine for a Russian-conducted or Russian-fabricated chemical or radiological false-flag attack against civilians as a pretext for further Russian escalation. The Kremlin is likely still evaluating this course of action but is building out the necessary conditions to justify broader violence against civilians. That risk must be addressed. The United States and NATO must “pre-bunk” such Kremlin efforts, destroy in advance Moscow’s efforts to create informational cover for escalation, and deter Russia’s potential use of a chemical or radiological weapon.

Warning Update: Pro-Regime Forces Continue Encirclement of Aleppo Despite Truce

March 4, 2016 - Chris Kozak

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his allies in Moscow and Tehran are continuing to complete the encirclement of Aleppo City despite an ostensible ‘cessation of hostilities’ that began on February 27, 2016. Russia resumed its air campaign against the opposition on February 28 following a one day hiatus, concentrating its strikes against the opposition-held northwestern suburbs of Aleppo City.

Warning Update: Pro-Assad Coalition Set to Escalate in Southern Syria

January 31, 2018 - ISW Press

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his allies in Russia and Iran are preparing to launch imminent combat operations in violation of the de-escalation zone in southern Syria. Al Qaeda is also likely preparing for a return of hostilities to southern Syria. The end of the ceasefire would generate new military and humanitarian crises on the borders of Jordan and Israel.

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