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Rebel Forces Repel Regime Advance North of Aleppo: The success of rebel forces in blunting and reversing the regime offensive north of Aleppo city indicates that regime forces remain unable to decisively complete the encirclement of Aleppo without the risk of overextension.
Opposition groups backed by Turkey in Operation Euphrates Shield seized full control over Al-Bab in Northern Aleppo Province as well as two neighboring towns, ending more than three months of heavy clashes. Meanwhile, UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura opened the Geneva IV Talks with the goal of reaching a political solution to the Syrian Civil War.
Iran Raises its Posture in Southern Syria: IRGC Quds Force commander General Qassem Suleimani’s appearance along regime frontlines validates reports of Iranian command-and-control over the ongoing offensive in Dera’a Province.
ISIS Continues to Lose Ground in Northeastern Aleppo: ISIS appears to be contracting in response to continued gains by the YPG and allied rebel forces.
Opposition forces and civilians began to evacuate from Eastern Aleppo City on December 15 following bilateral negotiations between Russia and Turkey. Opposition forces also agreed on medical evacuations from Fu'ah and Kefraya in Idlib Province after Iran threatened to collapse the agreement. Meanwhile, ISIS recaptured the city of Palmyra in Eastern Homs Province on December 11, marking the first seizure of a major urban center by ISIS in Iraq and Syria since May 2015
ISIS has relied on the submission and occasional participation of rebel groups and Sunni tribes to maintain its control over large swathes of Deir ez-Zour Province, but these negotiated agreements appear to be coming under strain as ISIS shifts its force posture in the province from a phase of consolidation to one of enforcement.
Russia and Turkey implemented a nationwide ‘cessation of hostilities’ agreement on December 29 in preparation for negotiations between the regime and opposition scheduled to be held in Astana, Kazakhstan on January 23. The deal will exclude all groups designated as “terror organizations” by the UN Security Council including ISIS and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (JFS).
Pro-regime forces backed by heavy airstrikes seized at least fifteen districts in Eastern Aleppo City including large parts of the Old City of Aleppo, shrinking the pocket held by opposition forces by more than seventy-five percent. Meanwhile, Russia and the U.S. met in Germany to discuss a potential deal to evacuate all civilians and opposition fighters from Eastern Aleppo City except for members of Jabhat Fatah al-Sham - the successor of Syrian Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra.
Key Takeaway: The Turkish military and its proxy forces are likely preparing an offensive against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to capture Ayn Issa. Turkey likely capitalized on the Russian withdrawal from Ayn Issa to increase its bombardment of SDF positions ahead of an intended ground assault. Escalations have continued despite the redeployment of Russian forces to Ayn Issa. Turkey appears to want to avoid direct confrontation with Russia and will likely attempt to attack SDF positions and take control of the city without firing upon nearby Russian forces. The capture of Ayn Issa would grant Turkey control of a portion of the M4 highway, interrupting SDF ground lines of communication from the areas it governs in western Syria to those in eastern Syria.
Local resistance to ISIS in Deir ez-Zour has occurred on a limited level since ISIS seized control of the province in July 2014.