Ukraine Crisis Update: May 14, 2015
May 14, 2015 - Hugo SpauldingRussian-backed separatists continue to posture for a surprise offensive.
Russian-backed separatists continue to posture for a surprise offensive.
Indirect fire exchanges have persisted across the front line as reports show Ukraine continuing to withdraw heavy weapons and unverified separatist claims assert their own complete withdrawal.
Against the backdrop of continued fighting outside Mariupol and Donetsk, Ukrainian oligarch and volunteer battalion financier Ihor Kolomoyskyi stole the headlines this week.
Amidst ongoing low-level fighting between Ukrainian and separatist forces, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko signed a law on March 18 which would grant limited autonomy to many areas under separatist control.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely attempting to leverage his gains in the Syrian Civil War to expand Russia’s freedom of action in eastern Ukraine. Russia and the separatists began to escalate operations in eastern Ukraine in mid-February, directly coinciding with the implementation of the Syrian cessation of hostilities agreement on February 27 and subsequent drawdown of Russian forces.
While Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko announced that both the separatists and Ukrainian Anti-Terror Operation (ATO) forces had withdrawn a large amount of heavy weaponry in accordance with the February 12 ceasefire agreement, shelling and clashes persisted in several key areas across the frontline.
Russian-backed separatists launched an offensive maneuver on June 3 after several weeks of military buildup and an expansion from concentrated shelling to attacks across a coordinated front. Separatist combined arms forces stormed Ukrainian military positions bordering the western city districts of Donetsk. Ukraine’s military claimed to have repelled the initial maneuver.
Russian backed Separatist forces have launched multiple unsuccessful assaults on Marinka, a Ukrainian held town near Donetsk.
Russian-backed separatists maintained heightened offensive operations along the front line in the week following the June 3 assault on Ukrainian forces west of Donetsk. Attacks intensified near the H20 and T1303 highways which respectively link the separatist-held capitals of Donetsk and Luhansk to the major government-controlled cities of Mariupol and Sievierodonetsk.
Russian-backed separatists continued to launch indirect fire and small probing attacks along the front line in eastern Ukraine against the backdrop of a restart in ceasefire negotiations in Minsk, Belarus on July 7.