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An ongoing Russian military build-up on Ukraine’s borders may indicate preparations for conventional military conflict. It certainly marks a dramatic escalation of tensions that will have significant repercussions in Ukraine. Russia has deployed additional military forces and systems to Ukraine’s northern, eastern, and southern borders.
Russia heightened its military posture in Europe by projecting its land, air and naval capabilities. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on May 4 that it would create three new combined-arms divisions in the Western and Southern military districts, with a second announcement on June 3 specifying that these would include moving two motorized infantry brigades to its Western borders with Belarus and Ukraine.
Russia took steps to expand and solidify its spheres of influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus to secure its dominance in the region while continuing to increase its military influence globally. Russia continues to project itself as an effective actor against terrorism in an effort to gain global legitimacy.
Russia continued to aggressively posture against NATO in the Baltic and Black Sea regions while presenting itself as a responsible regional actor and victim of alleged western provocation. The first meeting of the NATO-Russia Council since June 2014 failed to make concrete progress, and the Russian Minister of Defense accused NATO of provocative troop deployments in Eastern Europe. Russia continued to conduct a campaign of information warfare against the Baltic States paired with political pressure and military provocation.
We’ve seen this movie—now playing in Syria-- before. The Russians have developed a way of getting the U.S. formally to permit offensive Russian military operations against American partners on the ground, all the while calling it a ceasefire.
Russia continued to shape conditions on the ground in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East following the air safety memorandum of understanding signed with the U.S. on October 20, 2015.
Russia reached an understanding with the U.S. on air safety guidelines in Syria on October 20, but Russia's aggressive maneuvers against U.S. aircraft and violations of Turkish airspace are likely to continue in order to keep U.S. air power in the Middle East in check.
President Vladimir Putin seeks to project Russian military force forward into the territory of the former Soviet Union while competing with the U.S. for influence in the Middle East.
Russia mobilized and transported forces and equipment to Syria under the guise of military exercises. The link between Russia’s arrival at the naval base at Tartus and its military exercises in the Eastern Mediterranean are clear, and the proximity in time of Russia’s deployment into Syria and its Center 2015 exercise indicates that these military exercises served as preludes or covers for deployments.
The positioning of Russian aircraft in Syria gives the Kremlin an ability to shape and control U.S. and Western operations in both Syria and Iraq out of all proportion to the size of the Russian force. It can compel the U.S. to accept a de facto combined coalition with Russia, Syria, Iran, and Lebanese Hezbollah, possibly in support of indiscriminate operations against any and all regime opponents, not just ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra.