China-Taiwan Weekly Update, August 18, 2023

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, August 18, 2023

Authors: Nils Peterson, Frank Hoffman, and Ian Jones of the Institute for the Study of War

Editors: Dan Blumenthal and Frederick W. Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute

Data Cutoff: August 15 at 5pm

The China–Taiwan Weekly Update focuses on the Chinese Communist Party’s paths to controlling Taiwan and relevant cross–Taiwan Strait developments.

Key Takeaways  

1. Republic of China (ROC) Vice President and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Lai Ching-te gave an interview with Bloomberg in Taiwan on July 27, which Bloomberg released on August 14. The publication of Lai’s statements in a leading English-language magazine helps him project his message to a wider American audience compared to attacks from the CCP and KMT that aimed to undermine Lai’s legitimacy.
2. KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih emphasized nuclear energy policy during a press conference to burnish his national security credentials. Hou focused on his energy policy to portray the KMT as a responsible party on national security without having to address his cross-strait policy.
3. Typhoon Doksuri made landfall in China on July 28. A CCP directive implemented in November 2022 slowed the PRC’s emergency response to the typhoon, which drew criticism from CCP-affiliated media.

Taiwan Developments

This section covers relevant developments pertaining to Taiwan, including its upcoming January 13, presidential and legislative elections.

Lai Countered CCP-KMT Messaging in a Bloomberg Interview

Republic of China (ROC) Vice President and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Lai Ching-te gave an interview with Bloomberg in Taiwan on July 27, which Bloomberg released on August 14.[1]  Lai emphasized maintaining the status quo with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) across the Taiwan Strait while explaining the basis for ROC’s sovereignty to an American audience. Lai stated he is willing to engage with the PRC so long as there is “parity and dignity.”[2] He elaborated on this phrase by highlighting the basis for cross-strait relations lies in the sovereignty of the ROC. Lai stated the reality that “Taiwan is already a sovereign, independent country called the Republic of China. It is not part of the People’s Republic of China. The ROC and PRC are not subordinate to one another. It is not necessary to declare independence.”[3] This means Lai’s call for engagement with the PRC with “parity and dignity” is based on the PRC treating the ROC as a sovereign equal. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has never been willing to meet this condition nor met with a serving DPP leader. The CCP and KMT separately framing Lai as a radical worker for Taiwan's independence serve as political attack lines.[4] These lines inaccurately portray the DPP as working to subvert the existing status quo and do not represent the DPP's position of strengthening their already independent state: the ROC.

The publication of Lai’s statements in a leading English-language magazine helps him project his message to a wider American audience compared to attacks from the CCP and KMT that aimed to undermine Lai’s legitimacy. The DPP-leaning Liberty Times reported on August 1 that KMT Acting Representative in the United States Victor Chin spread rumors in US-Taiwan policy circles that Lai sought to visit the Washington area during his upcoming transit.[5] The KMT sought to portray Lai as a provocateur in the US-ROC relationship in spreading this rumor. Lai’s English-language rejection of Taiwan's independence in favor of Taiwanese sovereignty countered this rumor. KMT Chairman Eric Chu also argued on August 3 that Lai made foreign observers nervous as the “golden grandchild of Taiwan independence.”^[6]  The People’s Republic of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office Spokesperson Zhu Fenglian issued a statement in response to the interview claiming that Lai is a “troublemaker” and that his “arguments are a complete lie.”[7] The Vice Chairman of the Kuomintang Cultural Association Lin Jiaxing independently echoed this PRC attack on Lai by stating that Lai’s comments and interviews with foreign media have caused confusion and “deepened the world’s worries” about his “pro-independence” stance.[8]

Election Update: Civil Nuclear Policies

KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih emphasized nuclear energy policy during a press conference as a means to burnish his national security credentials. Hou promised to restart the two decommissioned nuclear power plants at Jinshan and Kuosehng and resume maintenance and safety inspections at both sites. He also promised to extend the lifespan of the single remaining operational plant at Maanshan. Hou further stated that he would review the decision to discontinue the construction of a fourth nuclear power plant at Lungmen.[9] Taiwan halted construction at the site in 2014 following years of political, legal, and regulatory delays.[10]  Hou also cited the necessity of maintaining a stable energy supply as an imperative national security matter as part of his justification to use nuclear energy.[11] Hou stated that power shortages without nuclear energy are also a concern of Taiwanese citizens, implicitly criticizing the ruling DPP’s energy policy.[12] The DPP criticized Hou for not detailing how he would deal with the plants’ nuclear waste.[13] The ROC Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs Tseng Wen-sheng also questioned the validity of restarting the decommissioned plants.[14]

Hou emphasized his energy policy to portray the KMT as a responsible party on national security without having to address cross-strait policy, an issue where the ROC’s populace heavily favors the DPP.[15] The KMT’s cross-strait policy emphasizing economic and cultural relations with the PRC is deeply unpopular among the Taiwanese electorate. Recent polling numbers demonstrate the KMT’s unpopularity. Hou is polling last among the three presidential candidates at only 16 percentage points on the question of who could best protect Taiwanese sovereignty.[16] He is also polling last by 16 percentage points in the presidential election.[17]

The points Hou raised during the press conference also distinguish his views on nuclear energy from the DPP’s platform. The DPP has maintained a nuclear-free Taiwan as its party platform since 1999 and has promised to phase out nuclear power by 2025.[18] DPP presidential candidate and Vice President Lai Ching-te has broadly supported President Tsai Ing-wen’s efforts to de-nuclearize Taiwan but advocates for maintaining nuclear plants for emergency use.[19] This discrepancy between the party’s platform and his policy demonstrates that Lai will sacrifice ideological purity on the nuclear issue due to the utility of nuclear energy in select circumstances.

China Developments

This section covers relevant developments pertaining to the People’s Republic of China and the governing Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Centralization Slowed CCP Response to Typhoon Doksuri

Typhoon Doksuri made landfall in China on July 28. Chinese President Xi Jinping ordered “all-out efforts” on search and rescue and the maintenance of “overall social stability” on August 1.[20] This included mobilizing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Central Theater command to support response and rescue operations, as well as assist with evacuation efforts. It also included mobilizing more than 500 rescuers from organizations such as the Blue-Sky Rescue Team, which is the PRC’s largest non-governmental humanitarian organization.[21] The typhoon significantly impacted China’s Hebei Province, which wraps around Beijing, bringing the most rainfall that the capital had experienced in 140 years.[22] The state-controlled Global Times reported on August 4 that 133,000 citizens of Zhouzhou, which is 50 miles southwest of Beijing, needed to be evacuated.[23] CCP-aligned news outlet The Paper also attributed the PRC’s slow response to Doksuri to a November 2022 directive from China’s Ministry of Emergency Management. The directive requires any non-public relief organization that seeks to assist in response efforts to obtain an official letter from the Ministry of Emergency Management.[24] The Blue-Sky Rescue Team, for example, explained that its response time was significantly delayed due to having to wait for official permission to deploy to affected areas.[25]

This demonstrates the negative impact that centralization had on incentivizing low level party cadres to take risks and work effectively with the rescue teams to address the emergency. The CCP has historically severely punished officials whom it has judged to lack effectiveness during crisis response.[26] This resulted in local officials not taking charge during this crisis before, according to former Chinese water systems engineer Wang Weiluo, Xi ordered so on August 1.[27]  The failure of the local cadres to integrate emergency response teams in response to Typhoon Doksuri fits into this pattern.