Iran Crisis Update, October 5

Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Nicholas Carl, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan

October 5, 3:00 PM

The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.

Anti-regime protests seemingly subsided in extent and size on October 5. October 5 marks the death of a prominent Shia Imam and is a national holiday in Iran, possibly explaining the decrease in protest activity in Iranian high schools. The regime’s ongoing internet and telecommunication restrictions are likely limiting the open-source information available on anti-regime demonstrations.

Key Takeaways

• Anti-regime protests may have occurred in at least four cities in four provinces—a significant decrease from the previous day’s protest activity.
• Anti-regime outlet Iran International reported that Iran is using orbit jamming to block the network’s satellite signal into Iran.
• The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) conducted an artillery strike on Sidekan in Iraqi Kurdistan for the tenth consecutive day.

Supreme Leader Succession

There was nothing significant to report today.

Anti-Regime Protests

Anti-regime protests may have occurred in four cities in four provinces on October 5. The regime’s ongoing internet and telecommunications censorship has severely limited the open-source information available on protest activity. CTP assesses with low to moderate confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

• Khorasgan, Esfahan Province
• Alborz, Karaj Province
• Qom City, Qom Province
• Tehran City, Tehran Province 

Former Foreign Affairs Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated on October 4 that the regime cannot ignore its people, referring to the protests.[1] Zarif’s more-sympathetic rhetoric diverges from the hard line that other senior political and security officials have taken on the protests. Zarif served under former moderate President Hassan Rouhani.

Anti-regime outlet Iran International reported on October 4 that the regime has started using orbit jamming to block the network’s satellite signal into Iran in recent days.[2] Iran International accused Iran of violating international law and said that it would legally pursue the issue.

Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments

The IRGC attacked anti-regime Kurdish militant positions in Iraqi Kurdistan for the tenth consecutive day.[3] The IRGC shelled positions near Sidekan, Soran District, Erbil Province. The IRGC has concentrated its attacks into Iraqi Kurdistan exclusively around Sidekan since October 1.

[1] http://www.entekhab dot ir/fa/news/697475

[2] https://twitter.com/IranIntl_En/status/1577388204872896523

[3] https://www dot kurdistan24 dot net/en/story/29645-Iranian-artillery-shelling-of-Kurdistan-Region-continues-for-12-consecutive-days