Iran Update, June 1, 2024

 

 

 

Iran Update, June 1, 2024

Johanna Moore, Kelly Campa, Alexandra Braverman, Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Click here to subscribe to the Iran Update.

CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.

We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Key Takeaways:

• Gaza Strip: The IDF Air Force has killed three Hamas officials in the central Gaza Strip over the past week. Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Rafah.
• West Bank: Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters in five locations in the West Bank.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
• Yemen: The Houthis launched one drone from Houthi-controlled Yemen into the Red Sea.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
• Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

The IDF Air Force targeted the al Nour Association in Tuffah neighborhood, Gaza City, on May 30.[1] The IDF stated that the al Nour Association facilitated millions of dollars in Hamas money transfers, some of which financed Hamas activity in the West Bank. The al Nour Association also transferred Hamas payments to families of killed or detained Hamas fighters.

Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters and destroyed Palestinian militia infrastructure in Gaza City on June 1.[2] The IDF Unit 888 launched an operation into the Sabra neighborhood and located tunnel shafts and weapons.[3] The IDF 679th Yiftah Brigade located a munitions warehouse that contained “dozens“ of rocket components.[4]

The IDF Air Force has killed three Hamas officials in the central Gaza Strip over the past week.[5] The IDF Air Force killed Mansour Adel Mansour Kashalan in Nuseirat on May 30.[6] The IDF said that Kashalan coordinated with "terrorist organizations” in the Gaza Strip and in other countries. Kashalan promoted and planned Hamas attacks in Israel and the West Bank. The IDF Air Force also killed Tareq Darwish in Nuseirat on May 31.[7]   The IDF said that Darwish contributed significantly to the Nuseirat Battalion's air defenses and tried to “impede the IDF’s freedom of aerial action” in the Gaza Strip over the past month. The IDF Air Force also killed Walid Abd Abu Dalal in the central Gaza Strip in the past week.[8] Dalal served in the al Qassem Brigades and as the head of the Technology Department under Hamas’s internal security organization. The IDF stated that Hamas’ Technology Directorate plays a central role in Hamas’ espionage activities.[9]

The IDF 162nd Division continued clearing operations in Rafah on June 1. The Nahal Brigade located tunnel shafts, rocket launch sites, an ammunition depot, and various small arms and explosives.[10] Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters in underground tunnels. The 162nd Division also directed strikes targeting Palestinian militia infrastructure used to target Israeli forces.[11] Palestinian militias targeted Israeli forces in southern and western Rafah with mortar attacks.[12] Hamas fighters conducted two attacks targeting Israeli soldiers with anti-personnel devices.[13] Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) fighters targeted an Israeli vehicle with a barrel bomb east of Rafah.[14]

The IDF Air Force has destroyed around 80 militia targets in the Gaza Strip since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on May 31.[15]

 

US Joe Biden administration officials expressed optimism that the US-built pier off the coast of the Gaza Strip can be repaired and rebuilt over the coming weeks.[16] The United States suspended the operations of the pier on May 28 due to damage caused by heavy storms and old equipment.[17] The pier was towed from the central Gaza Strip to Ashdod, Israel, for repairs. The United States faced similar weather constraints using a floating pier during an exercise in 2024. The United States last deployed a Joint Logistics Over-the-Shore (JLOTS) in 2010 to deliver humanitarian aid to Haiti in the wake of an earthquake. US officials stressed the need for additional land routes to facilitate aid into the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian militias conducted two indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on May 31.[18]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel

Israeli forces have engaged Palestinian fighters in at least five locations in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on May 31.[19]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Deter Israel from conducting a ground operation into Lebanon
• Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
• Expel the United States from Syria

Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on May 31.[20] Hezbollah fired Burkan rockets targeting the IDF 769th Brigade at Gibor camp in Kiryat Shmona on June 1.[21] The rockets caused extensive damage to military and civilian infrastructure, property, and vehicles.[22] The IDF reported that there were no injuries in the attack.[23] The IDF said it struck and destroyed the rocket launcher that Hezbollah used to fire the rockets.[24]  Hezbollah claimed that the rocket attack was conducted in response to the IDF Air Forces’ strikes on Ain Qana, Lebanon, on June 1.[25]

Hezbollah fighters downed an IDF Elbit Hermes 900 drone over Lebanon with a surface-to-air missile on June 1.[26]  The drone caught fire and landed in a southern Lebanese village.[27] The IDF acknowledged the incident and said that the IDF Air Force will continue to operate in Lebanese airspace.[28]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Iran and Axis of Resistance|

The Houthis launched one drone from Houthi-controlled Yemen into the Red Sea on May 31.[29] CENTCOM reported that the drone crashed in the Red Sea without causing damage to any surrounding vessels. The Houthis also launched two anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) into the Gulf of Aden from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen on May 31. CENTCOM reported that the missiles did not cause any injuries or damage to vessels in the area.

CENTCOM intercepted one drone over the Gulf of Aden and three drones over the Red Sea on May 31.[30]

 

[1] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1796883282799309064

[2] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1792489937847357841

[3] https://www.idf dot il/205597 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1796881956702973992

[4] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1796874847399628998

[5] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1796805576317354367; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1796805579811246240; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1796805583254786406; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1796805586689876204; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1796805589760188852

[6] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1796805576317354367

[7] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1796805586689876204

[8] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1796805579811246240

[9] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1796805819679306213

[10] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1796904897515786392 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1796874843394076875

[11] https://www.idf dot il/205612

[12] https://t.me/mojahdeenpal/4551 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6552 ; https://t.me/nedalps/4156 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2365 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/18023

[13] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2341 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2364

[14] https://t.me/sarayaps/18022

[15] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1792489937847357841

[16] https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/01/politics/gaza-pier-israel-hamas-war/index.html

[17] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-military-pier-operations-suspended-after-piece-breaks-off-2024-05-28/

[18] https://t.me/nedalps/4155 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1796633699481456711 ; https://t.me/abualiajel/241

[19] https://t.me/QudsN/414438 ;

https://t.me/QudsN/414456 ;

https://t.me/QudsN/414468 ;

https://t.me/sarayajneen/1308 ;

https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6549 ;

https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6550 ;

https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/6553

[20] https://t.me/mmirleb/4412; https://t.me/mmirleb/4413; https://t.me/mmirleb/4416;   https://t.me/mmirleb/4418;  https://t.me/mmirleb/4420;  https://t.me/mmirleb/4422; https://t.me/mmirleb/4424 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/4426 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/4434

[21] https://t.me/mmirleb/4420; https://t.me/moriahdoron/10670

[22] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1796840115186147567; https://t.me/moriahdoron/10663; https://x.com/kann_news/status/1796887804795896119; https://x.com/kann_news/status/1796906210580410751

[23] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1796840337735860381

[24] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1796840337735860381

[25] https://t.me/mmirleb/4420; https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1796785316533039454

[26] https://t.me/mmirleb/4426; https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1796858288455242041

[27] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1796856409126003005; https://t.me/moriahdoron/10666

[28] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1796858288455242041

[29] https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3793542/may-31-us-central-command-update/

[30] https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3793542/may-31-us-central-command-update/